The 2025 Ballon d’Or odds are live, and what an enthralling lineup we have. It’s been a memorable year in the world of football, with PSG winning the Champions League for the first time and, as a result, dominating the early markets. We’ve got everything you need to know, from where to bet, where the value lies and a cheeky promo or two for good measure.
- 1 Ballon d’Or Betting Odds 2025
- 2 The Best Ballon d’Or Betting Sites
- 3 Ballon d’Or Betting Offers & Free Bets
- 4 Ballon d’Or 2025: Nominees
- 5 How is the Ballon d’Or Winner Decided?
- 6 How to Pick Your Ballon D’or Winner from the List of Favourites
- 7 Ballon d’Or Award Ceremony – Where and When
- 8 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 9 Ballon d'Or FAQs
Ballon d’Or Betting Odds 2025
| Player | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembele | 2/7 | 10bet |
| Lamine Yamal | 11/2 | BetMGM |
| Ferreira Vitinha | 18/1 | bet365 |
| Mohamed Salah | 25/1 | 10bet |
| Raphinha | 45/1 | 10bet |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 55/1 | 10bet |
| Cole Palmer | 55/1 | 10bet |
| Nuno Mendes | 75/1 | 10bet |
| Kylian Mbappe | 75/1 | 10bet |
| Achraf Hakimi | 100/1 | BetVictor |
| Pedri | 100/1 | bet365 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 100/1 | BetVictor |
| Lionel Messi | 100/1 | BetMGM |
| Fabian Ruiz | 200/1 | BetVictor |
The Best Ballon d’Or Betting Sites
The Ballon d’Or winner is hotly contested in the betting world, so all the big boys come out strong with full market coverage. Below is a list of the best football betting sites for this year's awards.
Payment methods(11):
Bet £10 & Get £30 18+. Registration Required. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Funded account or place a bet to qualify. Geo location and live streaming rules apply. Time limits and Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad |
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Payment methods(8):
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets 18+ New GB customers only. Opt in. Deposit and Bet £10+ on sports at min odds of 2.0+ (1/1) for £30 in Free Bets within 7 days. Debit cards or instant bank transfers only. Free bets expire within 7 days of issue. Geographical restrictions and Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad |
Payment methods(10):
Bet £5 Get £30 in Free Bets 18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned). Restrictions + Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad |
Payment methods(5):
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Payment methods(4):
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Payment methods(8):
Bet £5 Get £30 in Free Bets 18+ New UK + ROI customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 6 x £/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stakes not returned). Restrictions + Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad |
Payment methods(10):
Trade with 0% commission for 60 days 18+ Use code COMMFREE to trade with 0% commission for 60 days. Min. £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card or Instant Banking. Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad |
Ballon d’Or Betting Offers & Free Bets
Ballon d’Or 2025 looks set to be one of the biggest yet, and the bookies will come armed with free bets and betting promos to lure you in. There are lots to choose from, so we’ve compiled a list of the best free bets and sign-up offers that are live right now.
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Matchbook PROMO CODEExpires: 24/05/26 – 00:00
18+. This offer only applies to Matchbook customers who receive the promotional email from Matchbook and who subsequently place a BACK bet on Arsenal to Win in the Premier League Outright Winner market on Matchbook during the promotional period. The qualifying bet must be a BACK bet on Arsenal to Win in the Premier League Outright Winner market on Matchbook. The back bet must have a minimum odds of 1.5 to qualify. Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad
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NetBet PROMO CODEExpires: No Expiry
18+ Free Bet given on settlement if your first £5+ bet (singles only) loses on selected games mentioned in the Promotion page. Valid once per cus- tomer. Free Bet valid for 7 days on any football. Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad
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NetBet PROMO CODEExpires: 24/05/26 – 00:00
18+ Wager £20 on accas on the Premier League. Min odds 1/2 (1.50) per selection & 3 Selections. Valid once per customer per week (Mon-Sun), £5 Free Bet Valid for 7 days and to be used on any football. Valid until 24th May 2026. Full T&Cs apply. Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org #ad
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bet365 PROMO CODEExpires: No Expiry
18+ New and eligible customers only. Max prize value shared equally if there are multiple winners. Entry to 6 Scores Challenge is separate from standard bet placement and all bet365 offers do not apply. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad
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bet365 PROMO CODEExpires: 26/04/26 – 00:00
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Ballon d’Or 2025: Nominees
We don’t want to go as far as saying it’s a closed shop, but the Ballon d’Or winner odds suggest this is a two-horse race between Ousmane Dembele and Lamine Yamal. And to be fair, the pair of them have been standout performers, so they’re there on merit. Let’s hope Real Madrid don’t throw the toys out of the pram when Vinicius Jr. doesn’t win. Again.
But that’s not all. We’ve also got the winner of the Yashin Trophy for the ‘keepers and the Women’s Ballon d’Or to look forward to and see if we can find a bit of value to boot.
Men's Ballon d’Or 2025 Shortlist
The Ballon d’Or favourite usually comes from a player in a team that’s won major honours on the world stage. And that’s exactly what we have this year with Dembele. He led the line in a monumental season for PSG, winning the Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France and the Club World Cup.
His contribution was incredible. From a mammoth 53 games in all competitions, he scored 35 goals and made 16 assists. We’re no Carol Vorderman, but even we can work out that’s almost a goal or assist per game. He’s odds-on to win and a clear favourite, but you’d have to work incredibly hard to argue against a first (possibly of many) Ballon d’Or for the Frenchman.
What an incredible season Lamine Yamal has had at Barcelona. He’s only just turned 18, but he’s already dwarfing his teammates on (and off) the pitch in terms of quality. He netted 18 times and had 25 assists in 55 games, helping Barca to the domestic treble (La Liga, Spanish Super Cup and Copa del Rey).
Yamal will probably fall short this season, barring a ridiculous start to 2025/26, as his numbers are great, but not out of this world. A lack of major European honours won’t help his cause, but this kid will be back. In fact, he’s so good we might start talking about Messi Ballon d’Or numbers over the next 15+ years, and he’s got another three years to surpass Ronaldo Nazario’s record as the youngest Ballon d’Or winner.
It’s tough to put into words just how vital Vitinha was to PSG’s success this season. He bossed the middle of the park, and his performances against Liverpool in the Champions League alone would have got him onto the Ballon d’Or list. He played a similar role to that of Rodri, who won the Ballon d’Or in 2024, so it’s not out of the question that he could sneak a top-three finish this year. If you had to ask us if he can win it, we’d have to say no, but an honourable mention, for sure.
Cole Palmer’s had a bizarre season across 2024/25. For the first half (2024), he looked like prime Glenn Hoddle, carving defences up like a turkey at Christmas with 12 goals and six assists. But in the second half (2025), he turned into Glenn Whelan, with just two goals and three assists to shout about. He won’t be one of the Ballon d’Or winners for 2025, but he’s starting to make a name for himself on the world stage, and if he can take Chelsea back to the very top in England and Europe, he’ll be right in the mix over the next couple of years.
The curious case of Mo Salah and the Ballon d’Or strikes again. If the bookies are correct, 34 goals and 23 assists in 52 games, plus a Premier League winners' medal, isn’t enough to get you into the mix to win. His best result was fifth in 2019, and since then, he’s broken all sorts of goals/assists records and won everything domestically and internationally. At this point, even if Liverpool had won the Champions League, would he be in contention as a potential Ballon d’Or winner? He should, but honestly, we aren’t sure. Anyway, he’s a long price for his achievements and out of all the players aside from Dembele and Yamal, he’d be our pick.
There are some big names who have had massive seasons that we’ve not mentioned so far. Achraf Hakimi at PSG has been a colossus down the right-hand side, with old-school Cafu vibes, such was his quality. His teammates Fabian Ruiz and Nuno Mendes have also been outstanding. Away from PSG, you’ve got Barcelona’s Raphinha with 59 goals contributed at better than one per game and, of course, Kylian Mbappe, whose 44 goals have gone very much under the radar.
We can’t complete a Ballon d’Or rankings section without talking about two GOATs. Just casually hanging about at around 150/1, you’ve got the legends that are Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. They're both on the final legs of their farewell tour as they cash cheques with numbers that can only be fully seen in landscape mode on your iPhone calculator. Of course, neither will win, but to see them on the list is a throwback to a time not that long ago, when the pair dominated with 13 Ballon d’Ors between them. Quite remarkable.
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Virgil van Dijk – 100/1
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Cristiano Ronaldo – 150/1
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Jude Bellingham – 150/1
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Florian Wirtz – 200/1
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Harry Kane – 200/1
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Viktor Gyokeres – 250/1
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Robert Lewandowski – 250/1
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Jose Vinicius Junior – 250/1
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Erling Haaland – 300/1
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Declan Rice – 300/1
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Michael Olise – 450/1
Women's Ballon d’Or 2025 Shortlist
The shortlist for the Women’s Ballon d’Or isn’t out yet. For some reason, it takes a little longer than the men’s, so we’re going to preview who we think will be in the running for 2025.
First on the list is Barcelona’s Alexia Putellas. Domestically, she’s had an incredible season and looked back to her best, leading Barca to the Liga F title. Granted, they struggled in the Champions League, and that carries weight, but she’s been the driving force behind Spain’s run in the Women’s 2025 Euros, and for us, she is the player everyone looks up to.
Next on the list are the two Gooners: Mariona Caldentey and Alessia Russo. For Caldentey, she surpassed expectations in her first season in England, smashing 16 goals and seven assists. Like Putellas, she’s been pivotal for Spain, and if anyone is going to dethrone the Spanish legend, it would be Caldentey.
Russo has been nothing short of brilliant. Top scorer in the WSL and second highest in the Champions League. She’s so consistent these days and could be the first Englishwoman to win. Between the three of them, it might come down to whoever wins the Euros, as it’s that close.
Yashin Trophy Contenders (Goalkeeper’s Award)
The ‘keepers follow a similar theme to the women’s in that the Ballon d’Or odds aren’t live yet. However, there are a couple of notable individuals who we think will have a great chance this year.
We will fall off our seats when the shortlist is announced, and Manchester City's Gianluigi Donnarumma isn’t a very short-priced favourite here. He’s just won the Champions League with PSG, and he’s been immense. Again. He won it in 2021 and had zero European honours to his name that season, so a domestic treble, a Champions League and a Club World Cup should get the job done this year.
His closest competition will likely come in the form of Yann Sommer, who lost in the UCL final to PSG with Inter Milan. They went close to winning Serie A, losing out to Napoli by one point, but aside from that, no silverware to show for a strong season from the Swiss stopper.
How is the Ballon d’Or Winner Decided?
Believe it or not, a select panel of journalists awards the Ballon d’Or. France Football is the host, and they create a shortlist of 30 players, which is given to 100 journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries.
They must then choose their top five from the list based on the player's performance from the previous season (July 1 to June 30). Six points are awarded for first, four for second, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth. The player with the most points wins.
How to Pick Your Ballon D’or Winner from the List of Favourites
By the time the season ends, it’s pretty clear who’s going to win. It’s a numbers game for a lot of it, and you’re looking at goals and assists on a personal level and silverware on a team level. Don’t get shortsighted by domestic success either. The majority of weight comes from the Champions League, so any team that wins it will have at least one player right in the conversation.
The key to finding value comes from timing. Let’s take this year's favourite and probable winner, Ousmane Dembele, as an example. PSG stumbled through the new-format league stage, missing out on the automatic qualifying spots and having to enter the first knockout stage. His Ballon d’Or winner odds at the time were an eye-watering 150/1.
As PSG progressed, knocking out Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa on the way, his odds plummeted, and at the time of writing, he’s a huge odds-on favourite to win.
So, you need to find value with your timing. Look to see which Champions League teams are strong. Assess the standout players from that team. Look domestically to see what can be won there. And then tie all that to picks around the start of the year.
Of course, there have been upsets as well. Rodri’s win in 2024 seemingly came out of nowhere, and who can forget Modric pipping both Messi and Ronaldo in 2018? Will there be one this year? Probably not, but stranger things have happened under FIFA-sanctioned events.
Ballon d’Or Award Ceremony – Where and When
The Théâtre du Châtelet will host the 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony on Monday, 22 September. The show kicks off at around 8pm CET and include presentations for the Men’s Ballon d’Or, Women’s Ballon d’Or, Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), Kopa Trophy (best under-21 player), and other honours like the Socrates Award (for humanitarian work).
ThePuntersPage Final Say
In terms of individual awards, it doesn’t come any bigger than the Ballon d’Or. Now, from a betting perspective, the later you leave it before the ceremony in September, the harder it is to find value. So, get in as early as January to look at prospects and start to see who might be trending in the right direction with their Ballon d’Or odds. It’s not always easy to do, but as you’ve seen from this year, there’s massive value if you can.
Ballon d'Or FAQs
Manchester City’s Rodri was a surprise winner of the 2024 Ballon d’Or, pipping Real Madrid’s Vinicius Jr. by just 41 votes.
The 2025 Ballon d’Or takes place on Monday, 22nd September at Théâtre du Châtelet, Paris, France.
Lionel Messi has eight Ballon d’Ors, the most of any player. He won in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023. Cristiano Ronaldo is second with five.
Yes, you can. Most of the best betting sites run markets throughout the year to bet on the overall winner. Generally, the earlier you bet, the more value you can find.
Ousmane Dembele is the current odds-on favourite to win the Ballon d’Or for 2025. He was an integral part of the PSG team that won the domestic treble, the Champions League, and the Club World Cup.