Following a bombshell defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK last week, Robert Jenrick’s move, the recent bookie’s favourite to take over the Tory leadership from Kemi Badenoch, has sparked wide speculation about who will jump ship next.
With more defections seemingly imminent, the question is less about when and more about who. We’re here to have a look at who the bookies think will be next to climb aboard the political life raft that is Reform.
In a press conference last Thursday, Nigel Farage unveiled Jenrick as his latest “top tier” defection to Reform and set a deadline of May 7th (upcoming local and mayoral elections) for anyone else considering making the switch.
That call was quickly answered by Romford MP Andrew Rosindell, who seems to have realised that the only way is Reform UK, as his dwindling poll numbers threaten his 25-year reign over the Essex-based constituency.
With a current Labour MP billed to be joining Reform this week, it’s fair to say that there will be more.
Here’s who the top UK Politics Betting Sites think will be next to swap the Conservatives for Reform UK:
| Candidate (Selected) | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Suella Braverman | 3/1 | Star Sports |
| Esther McVey | 9/2 | Star Sports |
| Priti Patel | 10/1 | Star Sports |
| Sir Iain Duncan Smith | 12/1 | Star Sports |
| Kemi Badenoch | 100/1 | Star Sports |
*odds correct as of 14:11 GMT on 19/01/2026
Suella Braverman – 3/1 (Favourite)
Market leader, Braverman, has never shied away from her admiration for Reform’s hard stance on immigration and the ongoing culture wars that continue to divide British politics. The former Home Secretary has been highly critical of her party following clashes with Tory leadership over the direction of travel and is firmly on the right-wing of the ever-shifting centrist party. However, her husband, Rael Braverman did join Reform about a year ago before deciding to leave in July 2025. His reasons, which aren’t abundantly clear, could put the brakes on Suella’s departure, making that 3/1 look a little thin.
Esther McVey – 9/2
McVey is a long-time Brexiteer and would have found herself alongside Farage in the infamous 2016 Referendum. She has been highly critical of the party’s choices, including Badenoch as leader, following the drubbing at the last election. Her views on National Sovereignty and Economic Reform align more closely with the insurgent party than her own, making a switch to Reform not just possible but likely.
Priti Patel – 10/1
While the former Home Secretary has displayed strong rhetoric that would align closely with that of Nigel Farage on immigration issues, her actions while in office were less rigorous, overseeing an explosion of small boat crossings, post-Brexit liberalisation, and schemes such as the Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghan resettlement programs being pushed through under her watch. With Robert Jenrick catching flack from the Reform base over his work as Immigration minister, it’s hard to see how Farage and the Reform UK hierarchy open their doors to the MP for Witham (Essex) and thus, more criticism from the right of their party so soon following Jenrick’s arrival.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith – 12/1
The once leader of the Conservative Party has been openly critical of the Tories on their abandonment of traditional values. For MPs like Smith looking to eke out another 4-5 years in Westminster as they enter their twilight years in Parliament, a switch could be on the cards, though timing could be a concern here.
Check out the full market at Star Sports and let us know on the socials who you think will be the next newest recruit at Reform UK.
