Ready for the best value bets of the weekend? We’ve lined up the top picks where we reckon the bookies have got it completely wrong, all bundled into a simply sublime fourfold acca.
With all the odds hovering around evens, whack a fiver on it at bet365 and you’re looking at a tasty £68.88 return.
| Match | KO Time | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City vs Southampton | Saturday 10th May 15:00 | Over 3.5 Goals | 10/11 |
| Newcastle United vs Chelsea | Sunday 11th May 12:00 | Newcastle to Win | 11/10 |
| Arsenal vs Liverpool | Sunday 11th May 16:30 | Arsenal to Win or Draw | 4/5 |
| West Ham vs Manchester United | Sunday 11th May 14:15 | West Ham to Win or Draw | 10/11 |
Bet 1: Man City vs Southampton – Over 3.5 Goals (Odds 10/11)
The headline here is simple. When Southampton face the top six Premier League sides, you can typically expect an absolute goal-fest.
Arsenal beat them 3-1, Liverpool 3-2, Chelsea 5-1 and Newcastle 3-1. The only exception was a 1-0 loss to City back in October.
But with Southampton absolute leaking goals lately and Man City on a five-match winning streak including that 5-2 thumping of Palace, we think that was just an outlier. We’re expecting at least four goals here.
Bet 2: Newcastle United to beat Chelsea (Odds 11/10)
Statistically these are the two most evenly matched teams in the Premier League with identical goal difference and points tallies but the home advantage changes everything.
Newcastle have lost just four games at home compared to six on the road while Chelsea have dropped six away and only two at Stamford Bridge.
If we estimate both teams at around 40% likely to win on neutral ground (with 20% left for a draw) and factor in that Chelsea are 66% more likely to lose away, the balance tips firmly in Newcastle’s favour. That’s a significant edge beyond the 47.6% win probability the bookies are currently pricing in.
Bet 3: Draw or Arsenal to beat Liverpool (4/5 odds)
The Gunners have won or drawn four of their last five Premier League matches, and their performances in the Champions League have shown they’re more than capable of competing with the best teams in Europe.
Liverpool, the reigning Premier League champions, are always a tough challenge, but they’ve lost a bit of their edge since their title win. They’ve dropped two of their last five matches, including a 3-2 defeat to 11th place Fulham.
Taking all that into consideration, we’d say the chances of either team winning or a draw are all equally likely. By backing a draw as well, we’d estimate our chances to be around 66% or higher. With odds just above evens, that’s nearly a 20% underestimate from the bookies. In other words, it’s a proper value bet.
Bet 4: Draw or West Ham to beat Manchester United (10/11 odds)
We were quite surprised by the bookies on this one. Manchester United and West Ham are separated by just a single victory in the Premier League, and both have been disappointing their fans at home as of late. And yet, Man U are still clear favourites. Why?
Neither team has won any of their last five matches, with West Ham having the slightly better recent record, managing to secure three draws in that span. Manchester United, on the other hand, have lost three times and drawn twice.
It’s a different story for Manchester United in Europe. With their Premier League season turning out to be one of their worst, it's clear they’re focusing all their energy on the Europa League. Given their second showdown with Athletic Club just days before this match, we expect another drop in quality back home.
Put it this way, Manchester United would have to break their seven-match winless Premier League streak to prove us wrong here, and that seems much less likely than the 52.4% implied probability given by the bookmakers.
Supercharge Your Winnings with an Acca Boost from bet365
All the odds you see above are from bet365, one of the best bookmakers in the UK. And not only can you enjoy exceptional potential returns from them, but you can also increase your winnings thanks to their “100% Acca Boost” promotion.
Basically, when you place an acca with two selections or more, you'll get an extra boost on your winnings. For a 4-fold, you get a 7.5% boost on your profit. So, if your normal return would be £68.88, you'd make £63.88 in profit. With the 7.5% boost, that adds an extra £5.16, bringing your total profit to £69.04. That’s like getting your whole stake back as extra cash!
Best of all, it requires no extra effort from you. Just back your acca with bet365, and if it wins, your extra profits will be added automatically.
