We are so back. My NFL Week 1 sharp money and public betting report is live, and it’s a cracker. If you’re new, then welcome. This is where I analyse how the market compares between bet percentages, money percentages and line movements as I look for value beyond the headline odds.
The goal isn’t to simply “fade the public,” but to understand how the market is reacting. This should, theoretically, give us more info than the raw odds and, in turn, compare how the public and the sharps disagree.
As it’s Week 1, there are a lot of unknowns, but that doesn’t impact the spread for the purpose of our bets. All we’re doing is watching how the markets move, figuring out why, and then taking any odds that give us an edge. Let’s jump in.
NFL Week 1 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the first cheat sheet of the 2026-27 NFL season. There’s a lot going on, but if you’re a skimmer, as I am, the last three columns – best play, confidence and RLM – are all you really need to know.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | NE: 53 / 50 SEA: 47 / 50 | Balanced | Open: NE +3.5 Current: NE +3.5 | Lean NE +3.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | No |
| 49ers @ Rams | SF: 47 / 33 LAR: 53 / 68 | Consensus: LAR | Open: SF +2.5 Current: SF +3.5 | Rams -3.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Browns @ Jaguars | CLE: 57 / 27 JAX: 43 / 73 | Public: CLE Sharps: JAX | Open: CLE +7 Current: CLE +7.5 | Jaguars -7.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Buccaneers @ Bengals | TB: 58 / 54 CIN: 42 / 46 | Consensus: TB | Open: TB +3.5 Current: TB +3.5 | Lean TB +3.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | Weak |
| Ravens @ Colts | BAL: 58 / 82 IND: 42 / 18 | Consensus: BAL | Open: BAL -3.5 Current: BAL -3.5 | Lean IND +3.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | Weak |
| Falcons @ Steelers | ATL: 56 / 39 PIT: 44 / 61 | Public: ATL Sharps: PIT | Open: ATL +2.5 Current: ATL +3.5 | Steelers -3.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Bills @ Texans | BUF: 59 / 53 HOU: 41 / 47 | Consensus: BUF | Open: BUF -1.5 Current: BUF -1.5 | Lean BUF -1.5 | 3.5 (Weak) | No |
| Bears @ Panthers | CHI: 67 / 89 CAR: 33 / 11 | Consensus: CHI | Open: CHI -2.5 Current: CHI -2.5 | Bears -2.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | No |
| Jets @ Titans | NYJ: 43 / 62 TEN: 57 / 38 | Public: TEN Sharps: NYJ | Open: NYJ +2.5 Current: NYJ +1.5 | Jets +1.5 | 6.0 (Medium) | Yes |
| Saints @ Lions | NO: 71 / 28 DET: 29 / 72 | Public: NO Sharps: DET | Open: NO +7 Current: NO +7 | Lions -7 | 7.0 (Strong) | Weak |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | ARI: 58 / 23 LAC: 42 / 77 | Public: ARI Sharps: LAC | Open: ARI +11.5 Current: ARI +10.5 | Lean LAC -10.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | No |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | MIA: 55 / 36 LV: 45 / 64 | Public: MIA Sharps: LV | Open: MIA +3 Current: MIA +3.5 | Raiders -3.5 | 6.0 (Medium) | Yes |
| Commanders @ Eagles | WAS: 45 / 30 PHI: 55 / 70 | Consensus: PHI | Open: WAS +4.5 Current: WAS +5 | Eagles -5 | 4.0 (Weak) | No |
| Packers @ Vikings | GB: 33 / 34 MIN: 67 / 66 | Consensus: MIN | Open: GB -1.5 Current: GB +1.5 | Vikings -1.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Cowboys @ Giants | DAL: 37 / 95 NYG: 63 / 5 | Public: NYG Sharps: DAL | Open: DAL -2.5 Current: DAL -2.5 | Cowboys -2.5 | 7.5 (Strong) | Weak |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | DEN: 58 / 77 KC: 42 / 23 | Public: DEN Sharps: KC | Open: DEN +2.5 Current: DEN +3 | Chiefs -3 | 5.0 (Medium) | Yes |
No Expiry Date
Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 1 – Top Picks
Four picks have been ranked 7+ in confidence. These are the lines from the best NFL betting sites to take for Week 1:
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Giants | Public: NYG Sharps: DAL | Cowboys -2.5 | 7.5 (Strong) | Weak |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Public: CLE Sharps: JAX | Jaguars -7.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Public: ATL Sharps: PIT | Steelers -3.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Saints @ Lions | Public: NO Sharps: DET | Lions -7 | 7.0 (Strong) | Weak |
NFL Predictions for Week 1 – 7+ Confidence Rating
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: Confidence 7.5 – Cowboys -2.5
The Cowboys at -2.5 is my strongest pick on the slate this week. The public is backing the Giants with 63% of bets, but, extraordinarily, only 5% of the money is on them, showing the sharps are heavy on the Cowboys at -2.5.
Given that the line has held at -2.5, there’s only faint reverse line movement, but what’s important here is that the line hasn’t moved towards the heavily backed Giants. Also, we’re below the key 3 number – a field goal score would be enough to win this. The numbers give us a 7.5 confidence rating, and this is the weekend’s best bet.
Neither team was particularly great last season, and both had losing records. However, the Cowboys’ passing game, led by Dak Prescott, with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, goes up against a Giants defence that ranked 26th last season in points allowed, ticking all the right boxes.
EXPIRING:
31/12/2026
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions: Confidence 7.0 – Lions -7
There’s a caveat to this one, and that is, if the line were to move from -7 to -7.5, I’d probably swerve it. That said, as it stands, 72% of the money has been limped on the Detroit here, despite taking just 29% of the tickets. It’s the biggest public-vs-money divergence of the weekend and has inflated the confidence rating as a result.
Last season was very much a case of what-if for Detroit. A 9-8 winning record papered over some large cracks, with Jared Goff now working under new OC Drew Petzing and Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and James Williams forming a solid group.
First-round receiver Jordyn Tyson looks set to miss out for the Saints, and the Lions should cover this line with ease.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Confidence 7.0 – Jaguars -7.5
Sometimes markets never cease to amaze, so seeing that 57% of the bets for the game between Cleveland and Jacksonville have landed on the Browns isn’t all that surprising. Remember, this team went 5-12 last season and are up against one of my outside picks for a playoff run this year: the Jaguars.
Even though the tickets have favoured the Browns, the market has drifted toward the Jaguars, which means the bookies know who is betting the line and are forcing it to drift. We’ve pushed through the key 7-mark, which makes the bet less attractive at -7.5, but it still hits a solid confidence rating because of the clear reverse line movement. I would guess this line will keep moving as we get nearer kick-off, so it’s well worth getting in early on this one.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Confidence 7.0 – Steelers -3.5
The Steelers have moved from -2.5 at open to -3.5 in their game against the Falcons. If you got on early enough to beat the key-3 line, kudos, but even though we’ve pushed through that, it’s still the play here.
What’s interesting is that the majority of tickets are still heading towards the Falcons, even though it’s the Steelers who are shortening the line. This shows genuine reverse line movement against the public.
Backing the Steelers at home against a Falcons side that looks unsettled in terms of who will start at QB makes a lot of sense. Aaron Rodgers will be keen to get them off to a strong start in what could be his last season, with one of the best defensive cores in the league featuring DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. to back him up.
