Eurovision is hitting our screens this Tuesday and Thursday for the two semi-final rounds. Sweden are odds on favourites to win a record 8th title, but there’s some close competition.
Sweden is the heavy favourite priced at 1/1 with bet365. They have that classic mix of joyful silliness and catchy tune, which is just a cut above the rest.
KAJ could win Sweden’s 8th Eurovision, surpassing Ireland, who has been sitting on seven since 1996. Ireland might not even make it to the finals.
First Semi-Final
The first semi-final in Basel is maybe the easiest to predict, Sweden are by far the favourites. They're priced at 7/50 with bet365 to win the round. The next closest country is Estonia at 7/1.
Since ten nations qualify, many of the countries will have low odds. Trying to punt on the ‘worse’ songs will get you more value. Here’s what bet365 is predicting.
| Country | Odds with bet365 |
|---|---|
| Sweden | 1/400 |
| Ukraine | 1/100 |
| Estonia | 1/100 |
| Netherlands | 1/50 |
| Albania | 1/50 |
| Cyprus | 11/100 |
| Poland | 7/50 |
| Norway | 7/50 |
| Belgium | 1/4 |
| Slovenia | 9/10 |
| San Marino | 1/1 |
| Iceland | 137/100 |
| Azerbaijan | 2/1 |
| Croatia | 11/2 |
| Portugal | 6/1 |
San Marino has Gabry Ponte, part of the Eiffel 65 trio, who produced Blue (Da Ba Dee). The nostalgia alone could push him through, and priced at 1/1, it’s some decent value.
Belgium is actually the fourth favourite to win the entire competition. The 1/4 odds actually seems quite high compared to where they’re expected to finish. Their excellent semi-final performance has solidified their position, too.
Second Semi-Finals
The second semi-final is less competitive in terms of winning the competition, but that actually makes the ‘to qualify’ odds much better.
Bet365 and other bookies are expecting a lot of support from Israel, just like 2024 when they got 323 points, 10 less than top spot.
Israel is the favourite to win the semi-final at 61/100, and the semi-final is fully determined by public vote.
In the outrights, however, Austria is priced ahead of Israel, priced at 12/5 and 16/1 respectively with bet365. Owing to the fact that the Jury tends to be less generous to Israel.
For the semi-final, though, the same tactic of betting on the weaker countries could be your best bet. Here are the semi-final ‘To Qualify’ odds from bet365.
| Country | Odds with bet365 |
|---|---|
| Austria | 1/500 |
| Israel | 1/100 |
| Finland | 1/100 |
| Malta | 1/10 |
| Czechia | 4/25 |
| Australia | 4/25 |
| Lithuania | 1/4 |
| Greece | 7/25 |
| Luxembourg | 53/100 |
| Serbia | 4/5 |
| Ireland | 9/10 |
| Latvia | 6/5 |
| Armenia | 5/4 |
| Denmark | 137/100 |
| Georgia | 7/1 |
| Montenegro | 7/1 |
There are a few countries which have a good chance of qualifying but are still worth a punt on.
Lithuania: Priced at 1/4, Lithuania is one of the few rock bands in the competition. They’ll get a huge boost from that. We expect them to progress, without troubling the top 15 in the final.
Luxembourg: It’s a well-liked song, and most Eurovision predictions have them within the top 10. There’s good value here, and we think they’ll do quite well.
Australia: It’s a huge hit or miss. The song is tipped by bookies to progress, but there’s a lot of criticism against both the artist and the song lyrics. They’re priced at 7/2 not to qualify, which are exceptionally high odds, since the voting is fully public.
Eurovision Winners
It’s slim pickings. Sweden is by far and away the top dog this year. We’ve got the up-to-date odds and everything else you need to know on our Eurovision betting page.
