Months of electrifying Challenge Cup action come to a head this Saturday, and while Hull KR may seem insurmountable, Warrington Wolves’ semi-final performance proves nothing’s settled until the final whistle. And guess what, we think the bookies have left their defensive line exposed, and we’re ready to break through the gap.
Hull KR are coming into the Challenge Cup final as steady as a steamship, but recent Wolves’ performances have hinted at an iceberg on the horizon. Nonetheless, bookies have held steadfast in their belief that The Robins will fly too high for The Wire to pull them back down to earth.
We’re not arguing with the bookies’ predictions, but we reckon they’ve played it a bit safe, leaving some cracking value on the table.
Hull KR – 2/7 To Tear the Roof Off Wembley
We think Hull KR are very likely to come out on top this Saturday. In fact, even 2/7 odds (77.8%) look undervalued to us.
Has any Rugby League team heading into a final had this much going for them?
Hull KR haven’t just been winning, they’ve been tearing through the competition in both the Challenge Cup and the Super League like a hot knife through butter.
Get this, if it were not for one loss to Wigan Warriors in April they’d be heading into this match on a 17-game winning streak.
Need more proof? Just look at how they dominated Catalan Dragons in the semi-finals. Two early tries from Jack Broadbent set the scene for an overwhelming 36-12 win in York. And in their most recent fixture they made mincemeat of St Helens with a near flawless 34-4 victory.
Now, Elliot Minchella’s merry men are not unbeatable, but they have hit a level of consistency rarely seen in the sport. The Wire could upset them, if they arrive in top form, but their chances look tighter than Rambo’s headband.
Considering all that, even 2/7 odds look light enough to float away. We’d give them closer to an 90% chance of winning, meaning we think the bookies are off by over 10%. In other words, we still think Hull KR are well worth a punt.
Warrington Wolves – 11/4 For the Wire to Pull Off the Heist of the Season
While we do see them as underdogs, don’t be fooled, these Wolves still have plenty of bite.
Their semi-final clash with Leigh was a pulsating 21-14 thriller that saw The Wire book their place in the final, thanks to a gutsy showing headlined by first-half heroics from Paul Vaughan and Matt Dufty. And their prep for this one couldn’t have gone much better either, a convincing 34-22 mauling of Castleford that ticked all the right boxes.
The issue? We think Hull KR at full tilt will still have the edge over Warrington’s A game. Even their own head coach, Sam Burgess, has said the players need to deliver at least an 8 out of 10 just to stay in it. And in our eyes, that alone won’t be enough, Hull KR will also have to fumble.
And you don’t get to the Challenge Cup final by dropping the ball.
On top of that, fitness doubts loom large over key players. Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Jordy Crowther and Toby King are all question marks, not to mention captain George Williams. That’s a steep hill to climb before the first whistle even blows.
Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? Probably not. We’d peg Warrington’s real chance of victory at around 10%, meaning those 11/4 odds (26.75%) are offering little value.
If you are backing The Wire, we’d say the +10.5 handicap from bet365 at 10/11 looks far more realistic.
Back Hull KR and Convert Your Stake into Free Bets with bet365
They’re favourites, sure, but Hull KR still bring plenty of value and are well worth a punt on their own.
If you haven’t yet signed up to bet365, you may as well stake £10 and get £30 in free bets. There are no wagering requirements, the odds slip under the 1/5 minimum, and you’ll get three times your stake back in free bets, win or lose, to use across any market you like.
It’s like the conversion after the try. It just makes sense to give it a go.
