If you’ve been surprised by some of the bookies' predictions so far, get ready for your confusion to graduate into full-blown bamboozlement. We’ve lined up four picks with more value than a free bar, back the lot and your tenner could return a whopping £167.52.
| Match | Market | Odds from bet365 |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense vs Al Hilal Riyadh | Al Hilal Riyadh To Win | 6/4 |
| Palmeiras vs Chelsea | Both Teams To Score – Yes | 19/20 |
| PSG vs Bayern Munich | Harry Kane To Score or Assist Anytime | 4/5 |
| Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund | Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals – Yes | 10/11 |
*Odds correct as of 12.56pm 03/05/2025
We think the bookies have hit the bar on all four of them, and each one represents a fantastic bet well worthy of your consideration. If you're in it to win it, this could be the kind of acca that turns heads and boosts your balance. Here's why we think each one is worth a serious look.
Bet 1: Fluminense vs Al Hilal Riyadh – Al Hilal To Win (6/4)
What does Al Hilal need to do to convince the bookies of their quality? They’re in the quarter-finals, were runners-up in the 2022 FIFA Club World Cup, just beat Man City, and dragged RB Salzburg and Real Madrid to draws.
Sure, there’s some hesitation to fully back a team still relatively new to the top tier of international competition, but it’s time to accept that the most successful team in the Saudi Pro League are here to shake up the status quo.
That is not to take anything away from Fluminense. The oldest football club in Brazil has performed well in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A this year, sitting fifth at the time of writing. But would they have beaten Man City? They failed to do so in the 2022 Club World Cup final, and we believe their form is a step behind where it was three years ago.
In short, we see Al Hilal as clear favourites. We’d peg their chances of winning at around 75%. That makes the 6/4 odds, or 40% implied probability, feel as precious as Arabian pearls.
Bet 2: Palmeiras vs Chelsea – Both Teams To Score – Yes (19/20)
Nothing too complicated here, just simple math, logic, and some bookies who have clearly lost the plot. Both Palmeiras and Chelsea have scored at least one goal in nine of their last ten matches.
With 19/20 odds, we can only assume the bookies are looking at the both teams to score stats without any context. Palmeiras have had three of their last ten games where both teams scored, Chelsea five out of ten. So, if we add that up, that’s eight out of twenty, or 40%, which is pretty close to the 51.3% implied probability these odds represent. That makes sense from the bookies’ perspective.
But what really matters here is who is scoring the goals. Both teams are smashing them in, and this is a hugely important contest between two very offensively minded sides. We’re expecting something closer to an 80% likelihood that both teams will score. The bookies should have looked deeper because we think the numbers are way off.
Bet 3: PSG vs Bayern Munich – Harry Kane To Score or Assist Anytime (4/5)
Three starts, three goals, and one assist. That means Harry Kane is averaging over a goal or assist per game in this tournament. We’d be astonished if he doesn’t start here, especially considering the calibre of Bayern’s opponent, PSG. When you’ve got a killer team on the other side of the field, you need your best hitmen to take them down, and alongside Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala, that’s Harry Kane.
So, we consider him starting here to be very likely and we’d put the chance of a goal or assist at around 90%. Yet the bookies have him at 4/5, which implies only a 55.6% probability. He managed 26 goals and nine assists last Bundesliga season! What are the bookies thinking?
We know what we’re thinking: this might just be the best value bet in the FIFA Club World Cup quarter-finals.
Bet 4: Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund – Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (10/11)
They’re gonna have to reinforce the nets for this one before we’re convinced it’s going to be an absolute goal fest. Remember that 5-2 Champions League showdown? We expect this to be closer for sure, but no less action-packed.
Once again, the bookies are stuck looking at basic stats. Yes, over 2.5 goals have been scored in only half the matches both teams have played in this tournament. Plus, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 40% of their games. So 10/11, or a 52.4% implied probability, feels like a bad deal at first glance.
But that ignores the quality of their opponents. Neither team has really been tested at this level so far and we know from history that when they are, the matches turn into absolute goal fests. Dortmund have scored in every game but one and Real Madrid haven’t let any opponent walk away with a clean sheet.
The bookies are treating this leg like any other game and that is downright foolhardy. This clash could easily see both teams score and the total goals go well over five, so we’d peg the true chance of this market hitting at a hearty 80%.
Is this Michael Jackson’s best-selling album? Because it’s shaping up to be an absolute thriller. An electrifying way to cap off a heroically high-value acca.
