After winning 11 from 15 “Best Plays” last week (73.3% win rate), we are live once again with our NFL Week 3 sharp money report. It’s been a chaotic couple of weeks in the NFL – Steelers losing 31-17 to the Seahawks, anyone? The constant will always be in the numbers, and we’ve evaluated who the sharps are favouring for Week 3, looking specifically at where the value is.
We kick off on Thursday night with the 2-0 Bills hosting the 0-2 Dolphins for an AFC East blockbuster. The Packers travel to the Browns in one of our biggest confidence plays for the week, and the Ravens take on the Lions in what could be a potential Super Bowl game come February. Let’s run the numbers and see where the NFL sharp money for Week 3 is heading.
NFL Week 3 Betting Splits & Sharp Money Plays – Cheat Sheet
Check out the table to see how the markets and sharp betting lines are holding up for Week 3 of the NFL.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins @ Bills | MIA 30 / 43 BUF 70 / 57 | Public: BUF Sharps: MIA (slight) | Open: BUF -8.5 Current: BUF -12 | Pass/lean BUF -12 | 3.5 (Weak) | No |
| Packers @ Browns | GB 41 / 89 CLE 59 / 11 | Public: CLE Sharps: GB | Open: GB -6.5 Current: GB -7.5 | Packers -7.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Texans @ Jaguars | HOU 39 / 75 JAX 61 / 25 | Public: JAX Sharps: HOU | Open: HOU -1.5 Current: JAX -2.5 | Pass/lean HOU +2.5 | 4.5 (Weak–Med) | No |
| Bengals @ Vikings | CIN 56 / 63 MIN 44 / 37 | Consensus: CIN | Open: MIN -1.5 Current: MIN -3 | Vikings -3 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
| Rams @ Eagles | LAR 26 / 66 PHI 74 / 34 | Public: PHI Sharps: LAR | Open: LAR +4.5 Current: LAR +3.5 | Rams +3.5 | 7.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Raiders @ Commanders | LV 24 / 67 WAS 76 / 33 | Public: WAS Sharps: LV | Open: LV +7.5 Current: LV +3.5 | Raiders +3.5 | 8 (Strong) | Yes |
| Falcons @ Panthers | ATL 64 / 73 CAR 36 / 27 | Consensus: ATL | Open: ATL +1.5 Current: ATL -5.5 | Pass | 2 (Weak) | No |
| Colts @ Titans | IND 42 / 67 TEN 58 / 33 | Public: TEN Sharps: IND | Open: TEN -1.5 Current: IND -3.5 | Colts -3.5 | 8 (Strong) | Yes |
| Steelers @ Patriots | PIT 13 / 49 NE 87 / 51 | Public: NE Sharps: PIT (lean) | Open: NE -1.5 Current: PIT -2 | Steelers -2 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
| Jets @ Buccaneers | NYJ 38 / 43 TB 62 / 57 | Consensus: TB | Open: TB -7.5 Current: TB -7 | Jets +7 | 6.5 (Medium) | Yes |
| Cowboys @ Bears | DAL 35 / 66 CHI 65 / 34 | Public: CHI Sharps: DAL | Open: CHI -3 Current: DAL -1.5 | Cowboys -1.5 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | ARI 31 / 28 SF 69 / 72 | Consensus: SF | Open: SF -3.5 Current: SF -2.5 | Cardinals +2.5 | 6.5 (Medium) | Yes |
| Chiefs @ Giants | KC 48 / 79 NYG 52 / 21 | Public: NYG Sharps: KC | Open: KC -6.5 Current: KC -6 | Pass/lean KC -6 | 5 (Medium) | Weak |
| Lions @ Ravens | DET 34 / 69 BAL 66 / 31 | Public: BAL Sharps: DET | Open: BAL -3.5 Current: BAL -5.5 | Lions +5.5 | 6 (Medium) | No |
| Saints @ Seahawks | NO 38 / 22 SEA 62 / 78 | Consensus: SEA | Open: SEA -6.5 Current: SEA -7.5 | Pass/lean NO +7.5 | 4 (Weak) | No |
| Broncos @ Chargers | DEN 31 / 28 LAC 69 / 72 | Consensus: LAC | Open: LAC -1.5 Current: LAC -2.5 | Pass/lean DEN +2.5 | 4 (Weak) | No |
Best NFL Value Bets for Week 3 – Top 5 Confidence Rating
Our confidence ratings have been applied to all 16 games this week, and there are five that are standouts. The lines have been compared against the best NFL betting sites, so we not only see where the public is heading, but also see how the sharps have influenced the lines.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers @ Browns | Public: CLE Sharps: GB | Packers -7.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Raiders @ Commanders | Public: WAS Sharps: LV | Raiders +3.5 | 8 (Strong) | Yes |
| Colts @ Titans | Public: TEN Sharps: IND | Colts -3.5 | 8 (Strong) | Yes |
| Rams @ Eagles | Public: PHI Sharps: LAR | Rams +3.5 | 7.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Bengals @ Vikings | Consensus: CIN | Vikings -3 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
NFL Picks for Week 3 – 7+ Confidence Rating
Whisper this quietly, but the Packers might be back. They cruised the spread against the Commanders last week, and they’re our leading confidence pick coming into Week 3. The public has sided with the Browns (59%), but the sharps are with the Packers (89%). The lines have strengthened from -6.5 to -7.5, crossing the key seven points for the spread, which shows us that there is still strong market conviction. We’d love to get that line at -6.5 or even -7, but confidence is high regardless.
This line has crashed from +7.5 into +3.5, so if you got in early, major kudos. The public is with the Commanders (76%), but sharps are with the Raiders (67%), even at +3.5. We’re half a point away from key three, so there’s some caution with this if it were to drop. There’s enough value on the dog at +3.5 and strong reverse line movements to show that this is one of the value plays for Week 3.
We’ve seen a complete flip in this game from TEN -1.5 to IND -3.5. It’s a five-point swing, and given that it’s blasted through the key number three for the line, it’s a strong endorsement for the Colts by respected money. Obviously, -3.5 is worse than -3, but the magnitude of the swing in the game has increased our confidence levels to take on the Colts -3.5.
Unsurprisingly, the Eagles have taken 74% of public bets here, mainly on the back of last week's win over the Chiefs. The money has tilted to the Rams as a result, taking 66% of the total, moving the spread from +4.5 to +3.5. The Rams at +3.5 is the value play here as we’ve a classic sharp vs public tension given the bookies are shading the dog. We’d love to see that line jump back towards +4.5, as this is the only limiting factor in our confidence level.
Arguably, the most interesting book for Week 3 in the NFL is the Bengals travelling to the Vikings. Public consensus on the Bengals follows the money, which usually leads to low confidence levels. However, the line has continued to move towards Minnesota from -1.5 to -3. The bookies know something, and it’s likely about who has bet, rather than volume, favouring a lopsided action on the Bengals, rather than more exposure on the Vikings. It makes for an easy best play of Vikings -3 to complete the final part of our NFL Week 3 sharp money report.
INFO
If you want to learn more about how our confidence ratings are calculated, check out the guide in our Week 2 NFL report, where we break down how it works and the importance of public betting versus sharp betting.
