NFL Week 4 Sharp Money and Public Betting Report: Breakdowns for Every Game

Our NFL Week 4 sharp money and public betting report is now live, as we evaluate where the opening lines are heading into yet another fascinating game week in the NFL. Last week, Buffalo maintained their unbeaten start against a sorry-looking Miami side, and the Browns stunned the Packers with a late field goal to secure their first win and end Green Bay's unbeaten start.

An NFL football laid on the field with a blue background — An American football on the pitch. We go live with our NFL Week 4 sharp money report.

Week 4 kicks off on Thursday night with the Seahawks travelling to the Cardinals. Our top confidence pick of the week comes from the blockbuster at Raymond James Stadium as the Eagles face the Buccaneers, where one team's oh, has got to go. As ever, let’s crunch the numbers and dive right in to see where the NFL Week 4 public and sharp money is headed.

NFL Week 4 Public and Sharp Money Betting Splits – Cheat Sheet

Here’s a look at all 16 NFL games from Week 4, along with public and sharp betting splits, line movements and, of course, our all-important confidence ratings.

Game	Bets % / Money %	Public vs Sharps	Line Movement	Best Play	Confidence	RLM
Seahawks @ Cardinals	SEA: 85 / 95 ARI: 15 / 5	Public: SEA Sharps: SEA	Open: ARI -2.5 Current: ARI -1.5	Pass	3 (Weak)	No
Vikings vs Steelers (N)	MIN: 43 / 66 PIT: 57 / 34	Public: PIT Sharps: MIN	Open: MIN -1.5 Current: MIN -2.5	Vikings -2.5	7.5 (Strong)	Yes
Eagles @ Buccaneers	PHI: 43 / 62 TB: 57 / 38	Public: TB Sharps: PHI	Open: PHI -2.5 Current: PHI -3.5	Eagles -3.5	8 (Strong)	Yes
Saints @ Bills	NO: 43 / 22 BUF: 57 / 78	Public: BUF Sharps: BUF	Open: BUF -12.5 Current: BUF -16.5	Pass	3.5 (Weak)	No
Panthers @ Patriots	CAR: 57 / 30 NE: 43 / 70	Public: CAR Sharps: NE	Open: NE -3.5 Current: NE -5	Patriots -5	7.5 (Strong)	Yes
Commanders @ Falcons	WAS: 68 / 55 ATL: 32 / 45	Public: WAS Sharps: WAS	Open: ATL -3.5 Current: ATL -1.5	Pass	3 (Weak)	No
Browns @ Lions	CLE: 52 / 19 DET: 48 / 81	Public: CLE Sharps: DET	Open: DET -10.5 Current: DET -9	Lions -9	6 (Medium)	No
Titans @ Texans	TEN: 54 / 74 HOU: 46 / 26	Public: TEN Sharps: TEN	Open: HOU -6.5 Current: HOU -7	Titans +7	5.5 (Medium)	No
Chargers @ Giants	LAC: 68 / 90 NYG: 32 / 10	Public: LAC Sharps: LAC	Open: NYG -3.5 Current: NYG -6.5	Lean NYG -6.5	3 (Weak)	No
Colts @ Rams	IND: 60 / 61 LAR: 40 / 39	Public: IND Sharps: IND	Open: LAR -6.5 Current: LAR -3.5	Lean IND -3.5	4.5 (Weak–Med)	No
Jaguars @ 49ers	JAX: 52 / 47 SF: 48 / 53	Public: JAX Sharps: SF	Open: SF -5.5 Current: SF -3	49ers -3	6 (Medium)	No
Ravens @ Chiefs	BAL: 39 / 55 KC: 61 / 45	Public: KC Sharps: BAL	Open: KC -1.5 Current: KC -2.5	Lean BAL +2.5	4.5 (Weak–Med)	No
Bears @ Raiders	CHI: 71 / 73 LV: 29 / 27	Public: CHI Sharps: CHI	Open: LV -1.5 Current: LV -0.5	Pass	3 (Weak)	No
Packers @ Cowboys	GB: 59 / 83 DAL: 41 / 17	Public: GB Sharps: GB	Open: GB -2.5 Current: GB -7	Packers -7	5 (Medium)	No
Jets @ Dolphins	NYJ: 49 / 27 MIA: 51 / 73	Public: MIA Sharps: MIA	Open: MIA -5.5 Current: MIA -2.5	Dolphins -2.5	6 (Medium)	No
Bengals @ Broncos	CIN: 56 / 15 DEN: 44 / 85	Public: CIN Sharps: DEN	Open: DEN -2.5 Current: DEN -7.5	Broncos -7.5	8 (Strong)	Yes

Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 4 – Top 4 Confidence Picks

Confidence scores have been applied to all 16 games based on how the market opened and has developed. We utilise opening lines from the best NFL betting sites to compare and identify value with the sharps or the public. These are our top five NFL predictions for Week 4.

Game	Public vs Sharps	Best Play	Confidence	RLM
Eagles @ Buccaneers	Public: TB Sharps: PHI	Eagles -3.5	8 (Strong)	Yes
Bengals @ Broncos	Public: CIN Sharps: DEN	Broncos -7.5	8 (Strong)	Yes
Vikings vs Steelers (N)	Public: PIT Sharps: MIN	Vikings -2.5	7.5 (Strong)	Yes
Panthers @ Patriots	Public: CAR Sharps: NE	Patriots -5	7.5 (Strong)	Yes

NFL Predictions for Week 4 – 7+ Confidence Rating

We faded the Eagles last week, and if it weren’t for a crazy blocked field goal and TD return, it would have held. But the numbers are back in their favour this week, with Tampa taking 57% of the bets and Philadelphia 62% of the money. The line has strengthened on the back of this, shifting from -2.5 to -3.5, which shows the bookies are respecting the money. The Eagles have the edge in the trenches with this one, and if they can control those early, the market and matchup point in the same direction.

The sharps have piled into the Broncos with 85% of the money, even though the public is shading the Bengals (56%). It’s forced a big move from -2.5 into -7.5, and even though we’ve gone through both the magic -3 and -7 lines, it’s still a strong signal for a sharp conviction here. The Broncos should bounce back following a tight loss to the Chargers, and the Bengals' 2-1 record is flattering, to say the least.

We head to Dublin for the first-ever NFL game on Irish soil. Money has come in for the Vikings (66%), but, as is usually the case in tight or slight dog games with the Steelers, the public has backed them (57%). The line has only nudged from -1.5 to -2.5, which keeps us nicely under the magic three mark. With a neutral venue, the Vikings’ superior offence and under a field goal on the spread, this is an easy include.

Anytime the public fades the Patriots, you know that reverse line movement is going to be at play, and that’s exactly what we’ve got in their game against the Panthers. They’ve taken 70% of the sharp money, with 57% of public bets siding with the Panthers. Line movement has been slight, from -3.5 to -5. With the Patriots' far superior run defence, if they win early downs, we can see this spread getting smashed.