NFL Week 6 Sharp Money and Public Betting Report

Eyebrows were raised last week when we backed the Broncos to cover the +3.5 spread against an unbeaten Eagles, but cover it they did. They scored 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to take their season to 3-2, and we’re back on them again this week against a sorry-looking Jets side. It’s interesting to see the Jets have taken 58% of bets even with a generous spread, but the sharps have gone heavy with Denver (71%), and there’s clear reverse line movement, which has seen the line shift from -6.5 to -7.5. If we were at -6.5, our confidence rating would be closer to 8.5, but this is still the play and a strong pick, regardless.

The pattern suggests the Rams will dominate the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore have taken 54% of the public money, but 61% of the sharps have sided with L.A. The line has drifted from -5.5 to -7.5, which shows the bookies are clearly fading the public on this (reverse line movement). Like the Broncos vs Jets game, we’d love that line to drop under the seven spread, and if you can find it, the confidence rating would increase.

The Dolphins are already at a stage where they may as well tank now. A 1-4 record has all but blown their season after just five games, and the Chargers are looking good to overcome a -4.5 spread. The public, for some reason, is siding with the Dolphins (56%), but the sharps are strongly opposing (68% on L.A.). It’s a solid money edge and makes sense from a footballing perspective as well.