Welcome to the NFL Week 7 sharp money and public betting report. It follows another intense week of NFL action, where the Giants rocked the Eagles to inflict their second loss in as many weeks, and the Chiefs got their season back on track with a resounding win over a Lions team that many are tipping to win the 2025 Super Bowl.
Our focus shifts once again to the markets and, more importantly, where the sharp and public money is being split. We had a strong Week 6, winning eight from 13 picks (61.54%), and we’re looking to build on that as part of our NFL Week 7 sharp money and public betting report.
NFL Week 7 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
The early markets show that this will not be an easy week for our money report. None of the 15 games covered have a reverse line movement, meaning that the sharps are, for the most part, following the public money (or vice versa).
It’s the first week of the 2025 NFL season that this has occurred, which means confidence ratings are a little lower than they might ordinarily be. That said, it’s also the first week where confidence ratings are high enough on all 15 games for us to make a definitive pick. Here’s the cheat sheet:
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals (Thu) | PIT: 49 / 45 CIN: 51 / 55 | Public: CIN Sharps: CIN (slight) | Open: CIN -4.5 Current: CIN -5.5 | Lean Steelers +5.5 | 4.0 (Weak) | No |
| Rams vs Jaguars (London) | LAR: 41 / 40 JAX: 59 / 60 | Public: JAX Sharps: JAX | Open: LAR -3.5 Current: LAR -3 | Rams -3 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | LV: 55 / 55 KC: 45 / 45 | Consensus: LV | Open: KC -9.5 Current: KC -11.5 | Chiefs -11.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Dolphins @ Browns | MIA: 75 / 80 CLE: 25 / 20 | Consensus: MIA | Open: MIA -1.5 Current: MIA -2.5 | Browns +2.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Patriots @ Titans | NE: 75 / 81 TEN: 25 / 19 | Consensus: NE | Open: NE -1.5 Current: NE -7 | Titans +7 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
| Saints @ Bears | NO: 63 / 74 CHI: 37 / 26 | Consensus: NO | Open: CHI -7.5 Current: CHI -5 | Bears -5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Eagles @ Vikings | PHI: 60 / 66 MIN: 40 / 34 | Public: PHI Sharps: PHI | Open: PHI -3 Current: PHI -2 | Vikings +2 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Panthers @ Jets | CAR: 63 / 66 NYJ: 37 / 34 | Public: CAR Sharps: CAR | Open: NYJ -1.5 Current: CAR -1.5 | Jets +1.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Colts @ Chargers | IND: 82 / 92 LAC: 18 / 8 | Consensus: IND (Heavy) | Open: LAC -6 Current: LAC -1.5 | Chargers -1.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
| Giants @ Broncos | NYG: 77 / 78 DEN: 23 / 22 | Consensus: NYG | Open: DEN -7.5 Current: DEN -7 | Broncos -7 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | WAS: 18 / 18 DAL: 82 / 82 | Consensus: DAL | Open: WAS -3 Current: WAS -2 | Commanders -2 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Packers @ Cardinals | GB: 57 / 57 ARI: 43 / 43 | Consensus: GB | Open: GB -2.5 Current: GB -6.5 | Cardinals +6.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Falcons @ 49ers | ATL: 76 / 92 SF: 24 / 8 | Consensus: ATL (heavy) | Open: SF -6.5 Current: SF -2 | 49ers -2 | 6.5 (Strong) | No |
| Buccaneers @ Lions | TB: 27 / 27 DET: 73 / 73 | Consensus: DET | Open: DET -3.5 Current: DET -5.5 | Buccaneers +5.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Texans @ Seahawks | HOU: 36 / 48 SEA: 64 / 52 | Public: SEA Sharps: split | Open: SEA -1.5 Current: SEA -3 | Lean Seahawks -3 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 7 – Top 3 Confidence Picks
Three picks make the grade based on confidence levels for Week 7. We’ve priced these with the best NFL betting sites and while there is no reverse line movement (RLM) at play for any of the games, we still think there’s value in the spread.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts @ Chargers | Consensus: IND (heavy) | Chargers -1.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
| Patriots @ Titans | Consensus: NE | Titans +7 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Consensus: ATL (heavy) | 49ers -2 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
NFL Predictions for Week 7 – 6.5+ Confidence Rating
This game should be a cracker. The public and sharps have poured into the Colts early at +6, and rightly so. But the market shift to the Chargers at -1.5 is unquestionably the play now. Their passing game has been sublime and it’s been backed by an incredible rush/coverage combo, which will cause problems for the Colts’ offence. With less than a field goal in it, we’re happy to take the Chargers at home with this one.
If you asked Siri to show you a classic example of fading the public, this would be it. Lines opened on the Patriots at -1.5 and have now shifted to -7, a huge swing as we hit a key number on the spread. The Titans’ defence is improving and ball control in the offence has picked up in recent weeks as well. Home advantage against a team whose 4-2 record is flattering to say the least, looks like a strong pick this week.
The market has crashed in favour of the Falcons for their visit to the 49ers on Sunday night in what is undoubtedly an overreaction to their defeat against the Bucs last week. The line has shortened on the 49ers from -6.5 to -2, again, heading through a key number in doing so. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them squeeze the Falcons’ run-first plan and cause them all kinds of stress in doing so. A win at home, with less than a field goal on the spread, is the pick of our NFL Week 7 sharp money and public betting report.
