Our NFL sharp money report is live for Week 10. We come off the back of an amazing Week 9, winning nine of our 13 picks for one of the biggest ROIs of the season. Week 10 is set to be a cracker as the Patriots (7-2) travel to the Buccaneers (6-2), the Rams (6-2) take on a solid-looking 49ers (6-3) and in Monday Night Football, the Packers (5-2-1) host the Eagles (6-2) in a game that many are tipping to be a playoff game in the making. Let’s not waste any more time and jump straight into the money report for the week.
NFL Week 10 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
It’s consecutive weeks with no reverse line movement (RLM) in the markets. But what does that mean? Well, as the season progresses, form and trends are easier to follow, which means that bookies are sharper, and the money follows suit.
However, it also means our picks are stronger. We had one of our best weeks in Week 9, and in Week 10, every confidence rating is 5.5+, proving our formula is working. Let’s jump in, shall we?
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos (Thu) | LV: 34 / 50 DEN: 66 / 50 | Consensus: DEN | Open: DEN -6.5 Current: DEN -9.5 | Raiders +9.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Falcons @ Colts (Intl) | ATL: 43 / 56 IND: 57 / 44 | Public: IND Sharps: ATL | Open: ATL -1.5 Current: IND -6.5 | Falcons +6.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Browns @ Jets | CLE: 71 / 74 NYJ: 29 / 26 | Consensus: CLE | Open: NYJ -2.5 Current: CLE -2.5 | Jets +2.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Saints @ Panthers | NO: 36 / 22 CAR: 64 / 78 | Consensus: CAR | Open: CAR -3.5 Current: CAR -5.5 | Saints +5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Bills @ Dolphins | BUF: 81 / 87 MIA: 19 / 13 | Consensus: BUF | Open: BUF -5.5 Current: BUF -9.5 | Dolphins +9.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Jaguars @ Texans | JAX: 60 / 73 HOU: 40 / 27 | Public: JAX Sharps: JAX | Open: HOU -3.5 Current: JAX -1.5 | Texans +1.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Ravens @ Vikings | BAL: 64 / 70 MIN: 36 / 30 | Consensus: BAL | Open: BAL -3.5 Current: BAL -4.5 | Vikings +4.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Patriots @ Buccaneers | NE: 59 / 37 TB: 41 / 63 | Public: NE Sharps: TB | Open: TB -4.5 Current: TB -2.5 | Buccaneers -2.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Giants @ Bears | NYG: 46 / 50 CHI: 54 / 50 | Public: CHI Sharps: balanced | Open: CHI -5.5 Current: CHI -4.5 | Bears -4.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | ARI: 33 / 23 SEA: 67 / 77 | Consensus: SEA | Open: SEA -1.5 Current: SEA -6.5 | Cardinals +6.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Lions @ Commanders | DET: 83 / 84 WAS: 17 / 16 | Consensus: DET | Open: WAS -1.5 Current: DET -8 | Commanders +8 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Rams @ 49ers | LAR: 53 / 61 SF: 47 / 39 | Public: LAR Sharps: SF | Open: SF -1.5 Current: SF +4.5 | 49ers +4.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Steelers @ Chargers (SNF) | PIT: 71 / 66 LAC: 29 / 34 | Consensus: PIT | Open: LAC -4.5 Current: LAC -3 | Chargers -3 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Eagles @ Packers (MNF) | PHI: 78 / 87 GB: 22 / 13 | Consensus: PHI | Open: PHI -1.5 Current: GB -2.5 | Packers -2.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 10 – Top Picks
For Week 10, we’re adjusting the goalposts a little here and taking all picks at a 6.5+ confidence rating or higher. It makes sense, given that there’s no RLM, which is a big chunk of the scoring, but even without it, picks are still strong enough for us to get behind. Check out the best NFL betting sites for the latest odds.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles @ Packers | Consensus: PHI | Packers -2.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | No |
| Falcons @ Colts | Public: IND Sharps: ATL | Falcons +6.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Consensus: SEA | Cardinals +6.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Rams @ 49ers | Public: LAR Sharps: SF | 49ers +4.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
NFL Predictions for Week 10 – 6.5+ Confidence Rating
Game of the week? Probably. The Packers were poor last week, losing at home to the Panthers, and the Eagles looked back to their best against the Commanders. However, the spread has shifted here from the Eagles at -1.5 to the Packers at -2.5. That’s a huge flip as the public launches into Philly, the sharps are opposing based on the flip. Green Bay at home, with the number under a field goal, is the play.
The Falcons opened at -1.5 and are now at +6.5. There’s not a lot more to say, to be honest. The bookies don’t open markets that are eight points out, even if the Colts are looking like one of the stronger teams in the league. Take into account this is an international game in Berlin, so a neutral ground and the Falcons pushed an in-form Patriots hard last week, makes +6.5 a strong bet.
It’s an almost carbon copy of the Falcons-Colts game here as the Cardinals travel to the Seahawks. Bookies opened on the Cardinals at -1.5 and can now be had at +6.5. Consensus is with the Seahawks, but this spread is too big and a classic divisional dog with an inflated tag. It could be a scrappy game, which will suit the Cardinals (and us), and +6.5 covers multiple key numbers.
This could be another great game in Week 10. The 49ers opened at -1.5 and have now been pushed to +4.5. The sharps have been more prominent with their volume, taking 61% of the money, but that doesn’t add up to following them when the spread has moved six points and through two key lines. 49ers at home and +4.5 is the play.
2025 NFL Sharp Money Season Results
| Week | Games | Best Plays | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73.33 |
| 3 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 46.67 |
| 4 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.67 |
| 5 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 6 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 46.15 |
| 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 9 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69.23 |
| Total | 118 | 107 | 62 | 45 | 57.94 |
