With just four regular-season games to go, our NFL Week 15 sharp money report is live. Last week got us back to winning ways, as we went 9-for-14, boosting our overall win percentage for the season to almost 60%.
It’s very much the business end of the season, with two-thirds of the league still in contention of making the play-offs. The game of the week takes place at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots (11-2) host the Bills (9-4) in the AFC East. Other notables include the Packers (9-3-1) at the Broncos (11-2) and, of course, the Lions (8-5) against the red-hot LA Rams (10-3).
NFL Week 15 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
It’s a full fixture list for Week 15 with all 16 teams in action. Our sharp money and public betting cheat sheet is live, with the latest lines taken directly from the best NFL betting sites – check it out for the latest promos and offers for Week 15.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | ATL: 12 / 5 TB: 88 / 95 | Public: TB Sharps: TB | Open: TB -5.5 Current: TB -4.5 | Falcons +4.5 | 6.5 (Med–Strong) | Yes |
| Cardinals @ Texans | ARI: 5 / 8 HOU: 95 / 92 | Consensus: HOU | Open: HOU -2.5 Current: HOU -9.5 | Texans -9.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Raiders @ Eagles | LV: 3 / 22 PHI: 97 / 78 | Consensus: PHI | Open: PHI -10.5 Current: PHI -11.5 | Eagles -11.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Jets @ Jaguars | NYJ: 6 / 34 JAX: 94 / 66 | Public: JAX Sharps: JAX | Open: JAX -4.5 Current: JAX -13.5 | Jaguars -13.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Browns @ Bears | CLE: 7 / 16 CHI: 93 / 84 | Consensus: CHI | Open: CHI -7 Current: CHI -7.5 | Bears -7.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Ravens @ Bengals | BAL: 46 / 32 CIN: 54 / 68 | Public: CIN Sharps: CIN | Open: BAL -2.5 Current: BAL -2.5 | Bengals +2.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Bills @ Patriots | BUF: 43 / 65 NE: 57 / 35 | Public: NE Sharps: BUF | Open: NE -4.5 Current: NE -2.5 | Bills +2.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Chargers @ Chiefs | LAC: 25 / 50 KC: 75 / 50 | Public: KC Sharps: Split | Open: KC -4.5 Current: KC -5.5 | Chargers +5.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Commanders @ Giants | WAS: 33 / 31 NYG: 67 / 69 | Consensus: NYG | Open: WAS -4.5 Current: NYG -2.5 | Giants -2.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Colts @ Seahawks | IND: 10 / 58 SEA: 90 / 42 | Public: SEA Sharps: IND | Open: SEA -3.5 Current: SEA -14 | Colts +14 | 6.5 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Packers @ Broncos | GB: 48 / 61 DEN: 52 / 39 | Public: Split Sharps: GB | Open: DEN -1.5 Current: GB -2.5 | Packers -2.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Panthers @ Saints | CAR: 88 / 92 NO: 12 / 8 | Consensus: CAR | Open: CAR -1.5 Current: CAR -2.5 | Panthers -2.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Lions @ Rams | DET: 26 / 30 LAR: 74 / 70 | Consensus: LAR | Open: LAR – 1.5 Current: LAR -5.5 | Rams -5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Titans @ 49ers | TEN: 3 / 6 SF: 97 / 94 | Consensus: SF | Open: SF -7.5 Current: SF -12.5 | Titans +12.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Vikings @ Cowboys | MIN: 7 / 9 DAL: 93 / 91 | Consensus: DAL | Open: MIN -2.5 Current: DAL -5.5 | Cowboys -5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Dolphins @ Steelers | MIA: 14 / 25 PIT: 86 / 75 | Consensus: PIT | Open: PIT -3 Current: PIT -3.5 | Steelers -3.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 15 – Top Picks
We’ll be honest, it looks about as tough a week to call as we’ve had so far this season. Just a single game (Falcons @ Buccs) has a hint of reverse line movement. But we’ve still got three picks that we like for Week 15 as highlighted in the table below.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Public: TB Sharps: TB | Falcons +4.5 | 6.5 (Med–Strong) | Yes |
| Colts @ Seahawks | Public: SEA Sharps: IND | Colts +14 | 6.5 (Med–Strong) | No |
| Bills @ Patriots | Public: NE Sharps: BUF | Bills +2.5 | 6.0 (Med–Strong) | Yes |
Public and money are both supporting the Buccs here, but the line has kicked toward Atlanta from +5.5 to +4.5. Classic reverse line movement, and the only one this week, interestingly. Neither team is in great form, but the Falcons have covered the spread in four of the last five and the Buccs, well, their season is quickly dropping off into obscurity. A huge game in the NFC South, and we wouldn’t hate taking the Falcons moneyline here, but getting that +4.5 spread makes it that bit more inviting.
The Colts opened at +3.5 and are now a whopping +14 on the back of the news that QB Daniel Jones is out for the season. But, even with this news, a spread this big feels too far off. This could be one of those where we truly eat humble pie, which is why the confidence rating is 6.5. A two-touchdown cushion against a Seahawks team that have been far from perfect this season. We’ll take that, but approach this one with some caution.
The game of the week, without doubt. Public says Patriots. Money says Bills. The line has moved towards Buffalo, however, shortening from +4.5 to +2.5. It’s knocked our ratings as a result, as having that Key 3 number in close games like this is huge. Again, it’s a good, not great bet, which has been a theme this week. It would be tough to argue with anyone following the public here, but the data is what it is.
2025 NFL Sharp Money Season Results
As ever, we keep complete transparency of all our NFL sharp money results, and here they are through 14 weeks.
| Week | Games | Best | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73.33 |
| 3 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 46.67 |
| 4 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.67 |
| 5 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 6 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 46.15 |
| 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 9 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69.23 |
| 10 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57.14 |
| 11 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53.33 |
| 12 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 76.92 |
| 13 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 43.75 |
| 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64.29 |
| Total | 191 | 179 | 104 | 75 | 58.24 |
