NFL Week 16 Sharp Money and Public Betting Report

There are just three regular-season games to go this year, and our Week 16 sharp money report has all the best picks. Last week, once again, proved fruitful as we won 11 of our 16 picks. But all eyes are on the run-in now to see who can grab those remaining playoff spots and who is looking to tank to get the first-round picks for next year.

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It doesn’t get much bigger than the Thursday night game in the NFC West as the LA Rams (11-3) travel to Lumen Field, WA, to face the Seattle Seahawks (11-3). This could be a winner-takes-all for the division, and whoever loses could drop into the wildcard picks if the 49ers (10-4) beat the Colts on Monday.

Pushing hard, but still on the cusp of the playoffs are the Bears (10-4), Buccs (7-7), Lions (8-6), Panthers (7-7), Colts (8-6) and the Ravens (7-7). What a week we have ahead in the run-up to Christmas, so let’s get stuck into the sharp money report, shall we?

NFL Week 16 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet

We’re stacked with a full fixture list for the final few weeks, with 16 games to choose from for Week 16. As ever, we’ve crunched the numbers, taken data from the best NFL betting sites and created your one-stop cheat sheet for the week.

Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 16 – Top Picks

There are some really nice picks this week after what looked like a tough round in Week 15. We’ve got three games that have all triggered reverse line movement (RLM) and, as a result, each features within our top three picks for Week 16.

Chiefs @ Titans: Confidence 7 – Titans +3.5

A huge line move here as the Chiefs have been chopped from -7 into -3.5, even though they’ve taken a large percentage of bets. The money, however, has gone with the Titans and if you got on at +7, then kudos to you, but even at +3.5 and as bad as the Titans have been at times this season, it’s the play. Patrick Mahomes is out for the season, and the Chiefs have shockingly missed out on the playoffs. Their season is done, and we’re following the sharps with the Titans this week.

Chargers @ Cowboys: Confidence 7 – Cowboys -2

Money and volume have both backed the Chargers to beat the Cowboys, but the line has done a huge flip for the Cowboys from +2.5 to -2. Why? Well, the bookies are worried about the calibre of punters backing Dallas rather than volume or exposure. It’s another sweet RLM scenario, and we’d have a higher confidence rating if we weren’t a little concerned about the Cowboys’ defence. They are one of the best offensively, though, so taking them at -2 with a key number still covered is a nice play.

Falcons @ Cardinals: Confidence 7 – Falcons -2.5

Both money and volume have been very even in this game, so watching that line move from +3.5 to -2.5 for the Falcons has made us take notice. It’s a dead rubber for both teams, which has lowered our rating to seven, but it’s a huge flip on the spread that simply cannot be ignored. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this line fluctuate a little before kick off, and if it does, we’d likely pass at -3, but take anything at -2.5 or better for the Falcons here.

2025 NFL Sharp Money Season Results

Another profitable round last week makes that eight winning weeks out of the previous nine. As ever, we track all our results for complete transparency, and here’s the updated table for Week 16.