The regular season is down to its penultimate week, and it’s all getting very tense as the final few teams go in search of a playoff spot. We are looking ahead to our NFL Week 17 sharp money and public betting report to find the betting edges that most punters miss.
The Seahawks (12-3) could wrap up the NFC West and get an all-important seed if they beat the Panthers (8-7) in Charlotte. But for the Panthers, they still need results to confirm their spot from the NFC South, so this should be a cracker. Elsewhere, the Bucs (7-8) must beat the Dolphins (6-9) in Miami to keep their hopes alive, and the Eagles (10-5) take on the Bills (11-4) in a potential Super Bowl matchup.
NFL Week 17 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
It may be Christmas, but games are running from the big day (25th) through the 30th of December, with all 16 teams in action. We’ve taken a look at the latest odds from the best NFL betting sites and have the sharp money cheat sheet ready to go below.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Commanders | DAL 60 / 71 WAS 40 / 29 | Consensus: DAL | Open: WAS -5.5 Current: DAL -6.5 | Cowboys -6.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Lions @ Vikings | DET 72 / 77 MIN 28 / 23 | Consensus: DET | Open: DET -2.5 Current: DET -6 | Vikings +6 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | DEN 73 / 81 KC 27 / 19 | Public: DEN | Open: KC -4.5 Current: KC +13.5 | Chiefs +13.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | Yes |
| Texans @ Chargers | HOU 53 / 54 LAC 47 / 46 | Slight: HOU | Open: LAC -3.5 Current: LAC -2 | Texans +2.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Ravens @ Packers | BAL 35 / 16 GB 65 / 84 | Consensus: GB | Open: GB +1.5 Current: GB -2.5 | Packers -2.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Jaguars @ Colts | JAX 27 / 30 IND 73 / 70 | Consensus: IND | Open: IND -1.5 Current: JAX -6.5 | Jaguars -6.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Patriots @ Jets | NE 79 / 40 NYJ 21 / 60 | Public: NE Money: NYJ | Open: NE -1.5 Current: NE -13.5 | Patriots -13.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Saints @ Titans | NO 38 / 41 TEN 62 / 59 | Consensus: TEN | Open: TEN -3.5 Current: NO -2.5 | Saints -2.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | Yes |
| Steelers @ Browns | PIT 76 / 73 CLE 24 / 27 | Consensus: PIT | Open: PIT -2.5 Current: PIT -3.5 | Steelers -3.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Buccaneers @ Dolphins | TB 63 / 68 MIA 37 / 32 | Consensus: TB | Open: TB -1.5 Current: TB -5.5 | Dolphins +5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | SEA 42 / 62 CAR 58 / 38 | Public: CAR Sharp: SEA | Open: SEA -1.5 Current: SEA -7.5 | Seahawks -7.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | Yes |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | ARI 40 / 40 CIN 60 / 60 | Consensus: CIN | Open: CIN -3.5 Current: CIN -7.5 | Bengals -7 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Giants @ Raiders | NYG 49 / 44 LV 51 / 56 | Consensus: NYG | Open: NYG +2.5 Current: NYG +1.5 | Raiders -1.5 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| Eagles @ Bills | PHI 69 / 68 BUF 31 / 32 | Consensus: PHI | Open: BUF -1.5 Current: BUF -2.5 | Bills -2.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Bears @ 49ers | CHI 70 / 89 SF 30 / 11 | Consensus: CHI | Open: SF -3.5 Current: SF -3 | 49ers -3 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Rams @ Falcons | LAR 79 / 70 ATL 21 / 30 | Consensus: LAR | Open: ATL +3 Current: ATL +8 | Rams -8 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
Best Value Predictions for Week 17 – Top Picks
It’s seemingly got harder each week in terms of finding games with reverse line movement, but we’ve managed to find three for Week 17, and each makes it into our top picks.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Colts | Public: IND Sharps: JAX | Jaguars -6.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Eagles @ Bills | Public: PHI Sharps: BUF | Bills -2.5 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Saints @ Titans | Public: TEN Sharps: NO | Saints -2.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | Yes |
Two of the most contrasting form sides in the NFL go head-to-head on Saturday and what a crazy market it’s been. To see the Jags open at +1.5 and move to -6.5 is bizarre, but if you were on at +1.5, many, many congratulations. Both the public and the sharps have lumped on the Colts, which is incredible given they’ve lost their last five games and the Jags have won their previous six. Anyway, even at -6.5, this is still the play, especially with RLM in the markets.
What a game this is going to be, ladies and gents. Money and the public are both siding with the Eagles here, but it’s the Bills who have drifted from -1.5 to -2.5. A classic reverse line movement situation, and as you all know by now, one we must get involved with. Bills at home will be no pushover either, and Josh Allen is strong enough to cover that key 3-point mark.
Money and the public have both invested heavily in the Titans here, but the line has moved the other way, drifting from -3.5 to +2.5. Again, reverse line movement comes into play, and this is clearly a case of not how much has been wagered, but more who is betting on what. It’s the biggest shift of Week 17, and while neither team have looked particularly strong this season, we’re siding with the Saints to get it done in Tennessee.
2025 NFL Sharp Money Season Results
Our first breakeven run of the season came about in Week 16, but we aren’t too disheartened as it played out as tough as we predicted in the lead-up to our sharp money report. As ever, we track our results every week, and you can see how the season has unfolded below.
| Week | Games | Best | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73.33 |
| 3 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 46.67 |
| 4 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.67 |
| 5 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 6 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 46.15 |
| 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 9 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69.23 |
| 10 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57.14 |
| 11 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53.33 |
| 12 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 76.92 |
| 13 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 43.75 |
| 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64.29 |
| 15 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 68.75 |
| 16 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 50.00 |
| Total | 223 | 211 | 123 | 88 | 58.97 |
