It’s been a tumultuous few weeks for English cricket. Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson were caught breaking curfew – again – and have spent the last week on the naughty step. They do, however, return for the Third Test at Trent Bridge on Thursday, 25th June, in this crucial winner-takes-all finale. I’ve trawled the markets to find three bets that look good value. Howzat, I hear you say? Well, you’ll just have to keep reading to find out.
TL;DR – My England vs New Zealand Third Test Predictions
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Stokes 20.5+ first innings runs | Betfred | 5/6 | 2 |
| Emilio Gay 24.5+ first innings runs | William Hill | 5/6 | 1 |
| Matt Henry Top New Zealand Bowler | Betfred | 2/1 | 1 |
*Odds correct at 24/06/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Ben Stokes Over 20.5 First Innings Runs
Let’s not beat around the bush here, Ben Stokes has struggled with the bat of late. In fact, he’s not scored more than 16 in any of his last seven Test innings.
He was promptly dropped from the side for the second Test due to failing to meet curfew, but he’s the kind of character who will be determined to bounce back. This could be his last chance, and he’s the type of player to thrive off that pressure.
Watching him score 95 for Durham last week proved that, on his day, he’s a class act. He owes England, he owes the selectors, and most of all, he owes the fans.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest that he went out there and let his undeniable talent do the talking this week. Over 20.5 first innings runs at 5/6 is a really solid place to start.
Bet 2: Emilio Gay Over 24.5 First Innings Runs
Initially, I was going to pick either Stokes or Emilio Gay from this market, but after doing a little more digging, I’ve decided to include both.
I think it’s safe to say that Gay’s debut Test Match series has been a success thus far. A half-century at both Lord’s and The Oval prove that he’s not out of his depth here.
In both Tests he’s batted with a level of maturity far beyond his experience level, and looks have cemented his spot at the top of the order at least for the foreseeable future – a huge relief for English fans on the back of watching Zak Crawley nick off for the thousandth time.
The runs market is always around even money, or in this case, just shy at 5/6, so it’s all about the line. Over 24.5 runs, I think, is just about fair here and good enough to go in as my second England vs New Zealand Third Test prediction.
Bet 3: Matt Henry Top New Zealand Bowler
Matt Henry’s 11 wickets at The Oval were an impressive watch. He used the conditions perfectly to his advantage, getting more out of the pitch than any of the bowlers on either side.
I think Trent Bridge will play similarly in terms of pace and bounce to The Oval, and if anything, it might just come onto the bat a little quicker, which should benefit Henry.
He was quiet at Lord’s, but that wicket-less first innings was the first time that he’d failed to get at least one scalp since January 2021against Pakistan.
It’s a testament to Henry’s consistency these days, and that’s exactly what you need to prosper in these types of markets. He’s 2/1 to take the most wickets for the team and is the third and final pick for my England vs New Zealand betting tips.
