The Premier League’s curtain-raiser gets underway on Sunday 16th August, as the champions Arsenal go head-to-head with FA Cup winners Manchester City. It’s a chance to see how teams have adjusted over the summer and, given the two teams involved this season, some insight as to who has the upper hand heading into the new campaign. As ever, I’ve got a bet builder lined up, so let’s jump in.
TL; DR – My Full 8/1 Community Shield Bet Builder
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result – Draw | Betfred | 5/2 | 2 |
| BTTS – Yes | Betfred | 4/6 | 1.5 |
| Erling Haaland to score or assist | William Hill | Evens | 2 |
| Over 2.5 cards | William Hill | 4/11 | 3 |
| Bet Builder | William Hill | 8/1 | 1 |
*Odds correct at 10:00 BST on 13/08/2026. Odds subject to change.
EXPIRING:
31/12/2026
Bet 1: Match Result – Draw
There’s a strong case for splinters on my backside here, but I think the draw at 5/2 is the best value from the match result, and here’s why.
Arsenal will be happy with their summer preparation for the new season. Adding Bruno Guimarães is a clear sign of intent that Mikel Arteta has prioritised quality over quantity, which is a luxury that few teams can relate to in the current climate.
Leandro Trossard is the only player of note who has left, departing for Besiktas in a strange move for the forward. Several fringe players have also moved on, including Jakub Kiwior and Karl Hein, but the spine that served them so well last season is intact, which will no doubt please Arteta heading into their title defence.
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That said, preseason results have been less than ideal. They suffered defeats to both Real Betis and Borussia Dortmund, then drew with Como to make it just one win from four. Should alarm bells be sounding? Not for me. Much of the squad has been delayed in returning from World Cup duty and, as a Newcastle fan, I’m channelling the mantra that you shouldn’t read too much into preseason.
Manchester City, on the other hand, head into an era of change. After 10 years and 20 major trophies, Pep Guardiola finally decided it was time to hang up his sombrero, marking a new dawn for the most successful English club in that time.
The board decided that the winner of the Pep Guardiola lookalike competition for the last three years, Enzo Maresca, was the obvious replacement. He has, after all, worked with both City and Pep, as part of his coaching staff and managing the club’s development side.
Like Arsenal, City haven’t seen the need for a massive overhaul in the summer. Elliot Anderson is the marquee signing, sealing a £116 million deal from Nottingham Forest and heading out the door is club legend Bernardo Silva, as he penned a new deal with Real Madrid.
Getting back to the punting, I’m finding it hard to separate the two teams. They’ve been involved in four draws in the last eight meetings, and I think this will be a game that both teams will be happy to not lose in 90 minutes. The draw at 5/2 with the best betting sites is my opening pick.
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score
This feels like an inevitable outcome. Recent head-to-heads have covered the market in seven out of the last 10 and four out of the last five, which is promising. But even if you took the market at face value, it just feels like both teams will chalk.
Arsenal are without Gabriel, which is a massive blow. They have been leaky at the back in preseason, and I know I just said not to read too much into that, but I’d be surprised if this season they are able to emulate the incredible feat of just 27 goals conceded in 38 games. Time will tell.
City have lost both John Stones and Nathan Ake, and while neither was a week-in-week-out player under Guardiola, the lack of cover adds pressure to a back line that, at times, was vulnerable in 2025/26.
Link that to the fact that six out of the last seven Community Shield games have seen both teams score, and odds of 4/6 look just enough to get excited about. Bet number two: locked.
Bet 3: Erling Haaland to Score or Assist
I don’t think this bet needs much introduction, to be honest. Erling Haaland is going to go down as one of the greatest Premier League strikers of all time. His numbers are insane, with 162 goals in 198 games for City since he arrived in 2022.
But what’s most impressive is that he does it in the big games. His record against Arsenal is very good, with six goals and two assists in 11 games. He’s even money to score or assist on Sunday, and I’m not overthinking this one, lumping it straight in.
Bet 4: Over 2.5 Cards
When you look at past games between the two sides, you wouldn’t exactly call this a typically ill-tempered fixture. Aside from the 2-2 draw at the Etihad back in September 2024, where there were eight yellows and a red, the number of cards in the fixture generally ranges between three and six and averages four over the last 10 meetings.
Odds of 4/11 for over 2.5 total cards isn’t something that I’d look twice at as a single, but for the purpose of my Community Shield betting tips, it boosts our odds from 6/1 to 8/1. An almost 30% increase for a line that’s been covered in all but two games in the last 10 makes a lot of sense.
