I’m leaving the St Leger alone this year. A shame for its 250th edition, but after so many defections, even some of the best horses and jockeys would rather be at Leopardstown, or even at Woodbine in Canada. That says plenty about the current state of the final Classic.
Last week’s tips went 3/3, including a 10/1 winner. Make the most of these selections while they are available – they have a short shelf life. I’ve got five selections this week, all from Donny and Leopardstown where Irish Champions Weekend begins.
Saturday Horse Racing: Best Bets and Odds (September 12)
| Bet Type | Horse | Race | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | Item | 5:00 Leopardstown | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Next Best | Al Jabbar | 1:10 Doncaster | 15/8 | William Hill |
| Strong Bet | Desert Castle | 1:45 Doncaster | 6/5 | William Hill |
| Strong Bet | Blue Bolt | 3:45 Leopardstown | 5/4 | Betfred |
| Value Bet | Quest For Stars | 2:45 Leopardstown | 5/1 | Betfred |
*Odds correct at 11:15 BST on 11/09/26. Odds subject to change.
I’ve put all my eggs in two very expensive baskets this Saturday. All five selections come from either the Balding/Juddmonte or Appleby/Godolphin camps. These are two teams absolutely dripping in class.
The prices above come from Betfred and William Hill, two of our very best horse racing bookmakers.
EXPIRING:
31/12/2026
Saturday Nap of the Day
Item – 5:00 Leopardstown
I’ve made no secret of how highly I rate Item. I backed him for The Derby, where things simply didn’t go his way, but this mile and a quarter on decent ground looks ideal for him at this point, and he’s been faultless at every stage other than at Epsom. He’ll stay a mile and a half in time, but there’s no rush to get there.
He’s second favourite for the Irish Champion Stakes, which interests me considering he’s already beaten his two main market rivals when landing the Group 1 Juddmonte International at York. All three of his wins this season have come on the Knavesmire, so you could argue at a push that he now needs to prove he can do it elsewhere.
I don’t see that being an issue. The son of Frankel has developed into a genuine top-level performer for Andrew Balding and Juddmonte, and Colin Keane takes the ride as usual. The scary bit for his rivals is that I’m not convinced we’ve seen the best of him this season yet.
Why I’m backing Item:
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Class act who has beaten today’s main rivals at York
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Didn’t peak earlier in the year, as some opponents did
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Gets ideal conditions and can assert his dominance
Saturday Racing Tips: My Next Best Bet
Al Jabbar – 1:10 Doncaster
Charlie Appleby has been shuffling his potential Classic pack this week. Al Wathba was a close fourth in Thursday’s nursery, Desert Castle runs later on this card (see below), Al Hudaiba is off to Woodbine for the Summer Stakes and Quest For Stars heads to Ireland – more on him shortly. Meanwhile, filly Musical Times demolished the May Hill field on Thursday and promptly became the new 1,000 Guineas favourite. Not a bad collection of two-year-olds to be sorting through.
Al Jabbar could add his name to that list. A son of Sea The Stars, this mile should suit him down to the ground, and I’d expect the step up from seven furlongs to bring about significant improvement.
He does need to improve, admittedly. Al Jabbar was turned over at long odds-on on debut, but very little went right at HQ and he looked every inch an inexperienced youngster learning on the job. I’m expecting a very different horse this time.
With William Buick in Canada, champion jockey-elect and 2000 Guineas winner Billy Loughnane takes over.
Why I’m backing Al Jabbar:
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Appleby’s juveniles are absolutely flying
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Potentially overpriced owing to his underwhelming debut
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Now has the ideal track and trip to show off
Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Strong Bet
Desert Castle – 1:45 Doncaster
It’s Charlie Appleby, Godolphin and Billy Loughnane again, and this time we could be dealing with something seriously exciting.
Desert Castle has the pedigree to be anything, being by Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, and he made a huge impression on debut. The whispers since have hardly been subtle either. By all accounts, he’s been working like a train at home and arrives with a reputation big enough to need its own horsebox.
He’s already joint favourite for the 2000 Guineas, and Appleby appears to have mapped out his autumn. Musical Times was always May Hill then Fillies’ Mile, and for Desert Castle, it’s the Champagne Stakes followed by the Dewhurst if everything goes to plan.
That tells you plenty. This is a Group 2 and there are some smart juveniles against him, but if Desert Castle really is a Dewhurst and Guineas colt, he should simply be better than this lot.
Why I’m backing Desert Castle:
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Joint favourite for the 2000 Guineas, second favourite for the Dewhurst
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Bred for the job – perfect pedigree
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Big debut run despite hanging left – should be straighter now
Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Strong Bet
Blue Bolt – 3:55 Leopardstown
I’m back with Andrew Balding, Juddmonte and Colin Keane for the Matron Stakes on Irish Champion Stakes Day, and with a filly who has been very good to us already this season at TPP. Also, to my bank balance, come to think of it.
Blue Bolt started her campaign with three straight wins at Goodwood, Royal Ascot and the July Festival at Newmarket – all three tipped on these pages. She then went to Deauville and made it back-to-back Group 1 victories, despite conditions not being absolutely perfect. Colin Keane has since suggested she’ll be at home at Leopardstown, which will do nicely.
The improving daughter of Blue Point has already shown she has the measure of Aidan O’Brien’s Precise, and there’s no reason to think the tank is empty. Four runs this season should mean peak fitness rather than end-of-season fumes.
Why I’m backing Blue Bolt:
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Top-class filly who has gone from strength to strength in 2026
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Irish rider Colin Keane always adamant that Leopardstown will suit
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Already beaten today’s main market rival twice
Saturday Racing Tips: Value Bet
Quest For Stars – 2:45 Leopardstown
One mile and one furlong will take some getting for inexperienced juveniles, and this is going to require more than raw ability. I want stamina, experience and, when things get uncomfortable, a bit of backbone. That’s exactly why Quest For Stars appeals at the prices in this Group 1 event.
Aidan O’Brien’s favourite Darkness Falls is by Camelot, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue, but he still has to prove he possesses the requisite class. Quest For Stars, meanwhile, has already shown me something equally important – he’s no coward.
The Sea The Stars colt is three from three and never seems particularly interested in winning by half the track. He just keeps improving, keeps finding, and keeps sticking his head out when it matters. Last time, he won a Listed race at Salisbury despite giving weight to Scomessa Sicura, the useful filly who was well backed before finishing behind Appleby’s Musical Times in this week’s May Hill.
That extra experience could be priceless. Former Godolphin number two and now Wathnan number one James Doyle reunites with Charlie Appleby and Godolphin for the ride.
Is Quest For Stars a guaranteed winner? Absolutely not. Is he a guaranteed stayer and trier at a very tempting price? Yes. That’ll do me.
Why I’m backing Quest For Stars:
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Relentless juvenile who has shown tons of guts
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Has the experience for this tough assignment
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Entered in the Group 2 Royal Lodge, but sent here which tells a story
No Expiry Date
Best Bets for Saturday: Recap
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Al Jabbar – 1:10 Doncaster
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Desert Castle – 1:45 Doncaster
-
Quest For Stars – 2:45 Leopardstown
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Blue Bolt – 3:55 Leopardstown
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Item – 5:00 Leopardstown
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Horse Racing Tips FAQs
Item, in the 5:00 at Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes). He is my best horse racing bet today.
It’s my strongest bet of the day, the one I’m most confident about.
Sacrificing strike-rate for better long-term value is how you come out on top, rather than backing favourites blindly.
No. I focus on quality, with Saturday horse racing tips appearing here, and selections for other major races appearing in my horse racing previews
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