Novak Djokovic’s underdog win over Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open semi-final was something straight out of a Rocky Balboa movie script. The 38-year-old Serbian rolled back the years, saving 16 of 18 break points en route to a five-set victory over the Italian.
The first semi-final was equally captivating as Carlos Alcaraz slugged it out against Alexander Zverev, also going the distance in a five-hour and 27-minute marathon – the longest Australian Open semi-final on record.
For Djokovic, he might never get a better opportunity to get that elusive record-breaking 25th major. And for Alcaraz, he’s looking to win his first Australian Open and complete the career Grand Slam, making the Spaniard the youngest man to do so at 22 years and 272 days.
Regardless of who you’re backing in the early hours of Sunday morning, it’s got all the hallmarks of an absolute classic, and as ever, our Australian Open final tennis betting tips show you exactly where the value is.
Australian Open Final Betting Tips – Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
After trawling the best online betting sites, bet365 have come out on top, paying a cool 7/1 for this 3-fold bet builder.
| Market | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| To Win the Match | Novak Djokovic | 5/2 |
| Ace Totals | Novak Djokovic Over 8.5 | 5/6 |
| Match Total Tiebreaks | Over 0.5 | 4/6 |
| Total Odds | 7/1 |
*Odds correct at 8:30 GMT on 31/1/2026. Odds subject to change.
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Bet 1: Novak Djokovic to Win the Match
Call us hopeful romantics, but we’re backing Djokovic to get it done in Melbourne on Sunday morning. It feels like the stars are aligning for that elusive 25th Grand Slam, and the odds of 5/2 look healthy enough to get involved.
This isn’t a heart-over-head bet either. Don’t forget that Djokovic beat Alcaraz in last year's Australian Open quarter-finals and has only lost once to the Spaniard on hard courts.
He may be some 16 years Djokovic’s junior, but that five-hour battle in his semi-final had to have taken something out of him. In comparison, Novak played 1 hour and 15 minutes less, but he also received a walkover in the fourth round, benefited from Lorenzo Musetti retiring with an injury after two sets in his quarter-final, and has played just seven hours in the first three rounds without dropping a set.
The Serbian has already won 10 Australian Open titles. He knows what he needs to do, and we think he has the momentum going into Sunday’s final.
Bet 2: Djokovic to Make Over 8.5 Aces
Djokovic’s service game has been excellent throughout the tournament. If he’s going to beat Alcaraz, then he’s going to have to step up a gear once again.
He covered the over 8.5 line in his semi-final match quite comfortably, landing 12 aces, and covered in both his first (14) and third round (11) matches.
Fatigue is going to play a role at some points, and Alcaraz will have to pick and choose his battles. This should lead to more opportunities to fire those aces down, and odds of 5/6 on this line look very generous.
Bet 3: Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the Match
The contrast between the pair’s tiebreak record in the competition so far has been stark. Alcaraz has been involved in six so far, with three of those coming in his semi-final against Zverev.
Djokovic has had just one tiebreak, in the third set against van de Zandschulp. It was surprising not to see any in the game against Sinner, but it said a lot about his ability to hold serve.
We keep coming back to it, but fatigue will play a role, and we doubt that there’ll be a ton of breaks between the pair. They’ve had tiebreaks before, most notably in the US Open semi-final in 2025, the Cincinnati final in 2023 and the Wimbledon final in 2024.
Again, the best tennis betting sites have been generous with their odds, offering 4/6, which looks decent value.
