The Monaco Grand Prix gets a lot of flak these days. The lack of overtaking in cars that have outgrown some of the most iconic tarmac in Formula 1 means that, as a spectacle, the race sometimes flatters to deceive. However, it remains an absorbing weekend of racing; you just need to be more selective in your picks. Luckily, I’ve done just that and come up with a handful of bets this weekend that take into account the idiosyncrasies of the Monaco track.
TL;DR – My 40/1 Monaco Grand Prix Betting Tips
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli to finish on pole | bet365 | 6/1 | 2 |
| Kimi Antonelli to win the GP | bet365 | 11/2 | 1.5 |
| No safety car | Betfred | 5/2 | 0.5 |
| Acca | bet365 | 40/1 | 1 |
*Odds correct at 11:00 BST on 05/06/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Kimi Antonelli to Finish on Pole
It’s been interesting tracking the markets for qualifying over the last few days. Both Ferraris head into the weekend as strong favourites to make pole, with Charles Leclerc priced at 11/8 and Lewis Hamilton at 15/4, respectively.
It would be tough to argue that the Ferraris look like they found some big gains in Canada, with second- and fourth-place finishes, but there are still questions about whether they can string it all together for 78 highly demanding laps.
All three street races so far this season have had a Mercedes at the top of the tree. So, it seems a little odd that the bookies have both Antonelli and Russell priced at 11/2 with some of the best F1 betting sites to do the same in Monaco.
For me, that looks like a huge price and not something that I’m going to pass up on this weekend. You can flip a coin between George and Kimi for the bet, but I’m backing the Italian supremo here to keep his incredible start to the season going.
Bet 2: Kimi Antonelli to Win the Monaco Grand Prix
Many would argue that the race is won during qualifying on Saturday. It’s tough to disagree with that, especially given that 14 of the last 20 pole sitters and each of the last three have gone on to win the Monaco Grand Prix.
Once a car gets ahead, it’s so tough to pass, which means that picking a winner is actually relatively straightforward here, depending on who you picked in qualifying.
The market has a similar feel for the race, massively favouring both Ferraris, but I just can’t bring myself to trust that they will get the job done. Charles at his home Grand Prix would be a fairy-tale win and back up his success here in 2024, and, of course, Lewis getting his first full-race win would be vindication for his move last season.
But 6/1 on either Mercedes, when they’ve looked so good in the opening five races, is a huge price. Whether you’ve taken George or Kimi in qualifying would heavily influence the race winner bet, but as we’ve already backed Kimi, we’re going again here.
Bet 3: No Safety Car
Most people often think of Monaco and a safety car going hand in hand. And up until around 2019, you would be correct: 12 of 15 races produced one. But since 2021 (no race in 2020 due to, you-know-what), we’ve had only one safety car in the last five races.
What’s interesting about that 2022 race was that it rained. The race started under the safety car, so it wasn’t even for a crash. With the forecast dry for this weekend, we can remove that scenario.
None of the last three Monaco Grand Prixes has yielded a safety car. The way the track is set up these days, with additional run-off areas and the introduction of the virtual safety car (VSC), means they’re needed less and less.
So, getting 5/2 with the best online betting sites for no safety car in 2026 seems like another inflated price based on historical data, which could be argued is outdated. A strong value-based angle to finish our Monaco Grand Prix betting tips, if nothing else.
My 40/1 Monaco Grand Prix Bet Builder is Live
