As of final declaration stage on Tuesday, bookies were going 7/1 the field in the 4:10 on day three. We don’t even always see that in the Grand National these days! This is proper, competitive racing, and I have a trio of Glorious Goodwood day 3 tips for Thursday 30 July 2026.
Goodwood Thursday Tips: Flann Tasty in Richmond Stakes
| Bet Type | Horse (Race) | Odds | Bookie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | Flann Sunna (2:25) | 15/8 | Betfred |
| Next Best | Geryon (3:00) | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Value Bet | Friendly Soul (3:35) | 3/1 | Betfred |
Odds correct at 14:45 BST on 29/07/26. Odds subject to change.
#Prices on Thursday are provided by Betfred and William Hill, two of our best horse racing bookmakers. We have a mix here including an exciting two-year-old, a classy three-year-old, and an older filly making up for lost time. Get on now.
No Expiry Date
My Betting Methodology for Day 3
About 34% of all favourites win in Britain, meaning the majority fail. Taking out the maidens and novices in which there is guesswork involved, all favourites are correct, trust me.
The bookies have done the work for you, but the problem is that these are horses, not machines. Favourites have an off day, get bumped and barged, or suffer a less than brilliant ride. There are many reasons a favourite can be beaten, but they are market leaders for a reason.
The trick then is look at the clear favourites on the card. If they have no obvious weaknesses at all – back them. Easy. If, however, they do have obvious flaws, then that’s when we quit, or look for an edge elsewhere. The bottom line is that bookmakers make their money by getting favourites beaten. Never forget that. So, we need to have split betting personalities.
On Thursday, there are races with jollies I like, races I’m leaving alone, and races in which I’m taking on the favourite.
My Glorious Goodwood Best Bet
Flann Sunna – 2:25 (Richmond Stakes)
Richmond favourite Flann Sunna is unbeaten in two starts. He has won comfortably by an aggregate of 8¼ lengths and has had an ideal off period of 20 days between races. He has the speed for six furlongs, handles fast ground, is by top sire Blue Point, is ridden by William Buick, and is trained by the in-form Crisfords for the Al Maktoum family.
Flann Sunna is also entered in the Gimcrack Stakes and the Mill Reef later this year, has achieved a high rating without being overly extended, there are no problems with the draw or the likely pace of the race, and he has no weight penalties. He is clear favourite for a reason here, and he has no obvious weaknesses.
Backing him with Betfred means being able to claim free bets as a new customer.
Why I’m Backing Flann Sunna
-
Unbeaten in two with the promise of much more to come
-
Represents top connections
-
Has racing conditions right in his favour
Glorious Goodwood Thursday Tips: My Next Best Bet
Geryon – 3:00 (Gordon Stakes)
Bay Of Brilliance was fourth in the Derby, but that really took something out of him, while Royal Ascot handicap winner Enceladus has been very well backed. I’m going a different way.
Enceladus is rated only 99, but more improvement is clearly expected of him. Even if he can run to a mark of about 105, then with his 3lb penalty, Ger Lyons’ Meld Stakes winner Geryon would need to clear 108 to win this, and I think he can achieve that and more.
The thing to remember is that these are all three-year-olds. They improve for time, not just for racing, so even if Geryon has more experience than his main rivals, he is still open to the same amount of progress.
After two ordinary displays in the spring, this son of Lope De Vega was a good second in a Listed race, running to about 105. He was badly squeezed out when two lengths behind the exciting Purview next, and he was keeping company there with actual Group 1 horses.
Last time out, he ran to an official mark of 107 when winning his Group 3, but did it very comfortably. He could have achieved a good bit more there, and most certainly can now he’s being upped in trip.
Why I’m Backing Geryon
-
Could prove to be the class act in this race
-
Been keeping excellent company this season (including against elders)
-
Step up in trip could be right up his street
My Glorious Goodwood Value Bet
Friendly Soul – 3:35 (Nassau Stakes)
This is the big Group 1 of the day, the Nassau Stakes over a mile and a quarter for the fillies and mares. Diamond Necklace is the odds-on favourite, but can we trust her?
Well, I reckon she has a false price. She’s unbeaten so far and is trained by Aidan O’Brien. Those two factors together mean that the bookies aren’t taking any chances. She just about won by a short neck in the French Oaks on fast ground, so while she has Group 1 winning form, she hasn’t dominated her races, even against her own age group.
Even if Diamond Necklace is the most likely winner, if you back enough horses like her at 8/13 and 4/7, I guarantee you’ll be in the poor house before long.
Second favourite See The Fire was once rated 119 and has been there and done it. She’s a 114 mare now (favourite is 115), and even though she has winning form this season, she could be slightly regressing.
The interesting one is John & Thady Gosden’s Friendly Soul. Lightly raced for a five-year-old owing to injury, there is more to come from her. Having been the horse that highlighted Haydock’s track problems when she stepped in a hole in May, she was pulled up there but didn’t suffer.
Sent to Royal Ascot for a Group 2, she was beaten only 2¼ lengths by Blue Bolt. That day she was too far back at the start and was very short of room at a crucial stage. With no roadblocks she’d have got close to winning that day. For info, Blue Bolt is now rated 119.
Why I’m Backing Friendly Soul
-
The definite value angle in the race
-
Only just hitting her peak after a long layoff
-
Was unlucky in running at Ascot
