Of the 20 Premier League managers who started last season, only seven remain in post. Given such a high turnover, it is little wonder that betting on the first manager to be sacked or to leave his post is a popular betting market. I have been watching the buildup to the season closely and have picked out three great tips for the first manager to leave his post.
Next Premier League Manager to Be Sacked Odds
TPP's guide to betting on the next Premier League manager to be sacked gives you all the info you need on this market. We update the odds from the best football betting sites every week. At the time of writing, William Hill have Hull City manager Sergej Jakirovic (10/3), Ipswich boss Gary O’Neil (9/2) and Fulham’s Alvaro Arbeloa (15/2) as the favourites. For the latest odds on the next Premier League manager to leave, go to our guide.
TL; DR – My Tips for the First Premier League Manager to be Sacked 2026/27
| Market | Odds at William Hill | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Gary O’Neil (Ipswich Town) to be first Premier League manager to leave | 9/2 | 1 |
| Alvaro Arbeloa (Fulham) to be first Premier League manager to leave | 15/2 | 1 |
| Enzo Maresca (Manchester City) to be first Premier League manager to leave | 20/1 | 0.5 |
Odds correct at 10:00 BST on 18th August 2026. Odds subject to change.
EXPIRING:
31/12/2026
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Gary O’Neil (Ipswich Town) to be first Premier League manager to leave: 9/2
Gary O’Neil has a tough task on his hands. Firstly, he is taking charge of one of the favourites to be relegated, newly promoted Ipswich Town. Secondly, he is stepping into the shoes of Keiran McKenna, who did a fantastic job at Portman Road. While O’Neil is a good Premier League manager, he is up against it, and if Ipswich get off to a poor start, he will be under pressure. I have tipped Ipswich for relegation, and O’Neil could end up being the first Premier League manager out of the door.
Alvaro Arbeloa (Fulham) to be first Premier League manager to leave: 15/2
Marco Silva left Fulham in the summer after establishing the Cottagers as a solid Premier League side. He has been replaced by former Real Madrid and Spain defender Álvaro Arbeloa, who clearly has a lot to offer as a coach. He did really well with Madrid’s academy and their B team. He also stepped up to take charge of the first team at the Bernabéu after the departure of Xabi Alonso.
However, Fulham have lost a lot of offensive power with Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez leaving. This is a different challenge to Arbeloa’s previous coaching roles, and he needs his new signings, such as Gonzalo Garcia, to hit the ground running. He prefers to play a high octane and aggressive style. If early results are poor and Fulham are close to the danger zone, he could be out of the door. Many of the best football betting sites have him as one of the favourites.
Enzo Maresca (Manchester City) to be first Premier League Manager to Leave: 20/1
This is a great value outside bet. In English football the man to follow a manager who set up a successful dynasty tends to struggle. Look at David Moyes after Sir Alex Ferguson and Unai Emery after Arsene Wenger at Arsenal. You can go back even further and look at Sir Matt Busby’s replacement at Old Trafford. Arne Slot did a good job of bucking this trend in his first season with Liverpool after taking over from Jurgen Klopp before coming unstuck last season. The only club who have really managed this situation well has been Liverpool when replacing Bill Shankly and then Bob Paisley in the 1970s and 80s.
This history makes me nervous about Pep Guardiola’s replacement at Manchester City, Enzo Maresca. The Italian worked under Guardiola at City, and although he did a good job at Leicester City, he was hardly convincing at Chelsea. City have some great players, but Guardiola’s last two seasons were, by his standards, a struggle. There is the added complication of the 115 charges City face. A 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the Community Shield was not a good start, and if they find themselves well adrift in the title race in the early part of the season, such is the impatience in 21st century football he could come under severe pressure. If you’re looking for a long shot, you could do worse. 20/1 at William Hill, one of the best online bookies in the UK, is a decent price.
