We’ve got another cracker from the World Cup quarter-finals as two of Europe’s finest, Spain and Belgium, go head-to-head at SoFi Stadium in California. Belgium are going to have to overcome a rather dire record against the Spanish, with their last win coming in Euro 1980, but will take the positives from a solid win over hosts USA and the fact that Spain stumbled over the line against Portugal. Let’s jump in.
TL;DR – Four Bets for Spain vs Belgium
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win | Betfred | 8/13 | 3 |
| Spain over 6.5 corners | William Hill | 13/8 | 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | Betfred | 4/5 | 1 |
| Castagne 2+ Fouls | Betfred | 12/5 | 1 |
*Odds correct at 14:00 BST on 07/07/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Spain to Win
I’m not sure the manner of the result against Portugal has put me off thinking Spain are still the next-best side in the competition behind France. On another day, they get an early goal and open Portugal up to win comfortably.
What was a little concerning was the urgency that they instilled following a less-than-perfect group stage was lacking. Signs of fatigue? Maybe. But it’s the same for all teams, especially those with players from successful clubs who are now ticking 50+ games this year alone.
Belgium are improving. They left it very late against Senegal to get back into that, but brushed the USA aside in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
I worry that they might have peaked, however. They’ve technically had three 90-minute draws and only beaten the USA and New Zealand. Spain will be a huge step up, and I don’t think they have the quality to compete.
World Cup odds of 8/13 are on the short side, but I’m happy enough to include this in the wider bet builder.
Bet 2: Spain – Over 6.5 Corners
The corner market for Spain has paid dividends so far for me. They racked up nine against Austria and then another seven against Portugal.
One of the reasons for this is Luis de la Fuente’s persistence with working the ball wide and encouraging the likes of Lamine Yamal and Alex Baena to get to the byline and whip the ball in.
It’s a perfect cocktail for these markets and a line that they have covered in all but one of their games so far.
We’re getting a good price here as well. 13/8 for over 6.5 Spanish corners with the best World Cup betting sites looks really good value and makes it part of bet number two.
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Bet 3: Over 2.5 Goals
The way Belgium set up and their style of play just screams goals. They’re pretty average at the back, but are posing issues up top.
Charles De Ketelaere got the nod over Romelu Lukaku against the USA and answered the manager's call, with two first-half goals. Leandro Trossard has created more chances than any other player in the tournament, and then they’ve still got firepower off the bench in the form of Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne if needed.
The backline is, however, dodgy. Obviously, Courtois in goal is elite, but you look at the likes of De Cuyper, Mechele, Ngoy and Castagne, and you can see why the team's results have been so erratic.
Spain are going to cause them problems and Belgium might be good for a goal down the other end. Almost even money for over 2.5 goals in a solid pick.
Bet 4: Timothy Castagne 2+ Fouls
Before I jump in, there’s a caveat to this bet. If Thomas Meunier starts, replace him with Castagne. He’s averaging 4.26 fouls per 90 so far and would be my pick, if I knew he would definitely start – which he likely won’t.
So, alternatively, it’s Timothy Castagne. Belgium's right-back has already committed 7 fouls, averaging 1.62 per 90.
This number is also on the rise, with two more against the USA. He’s going to be up against Alex Baena, who is one of the most fouled players in the Spain team, so this is a good match-up here for the fouls market.
The best thing is that we’re getting a huge 12/5 for 2+ fouls. I think that’s an incredible value and a rare slip from the bookies. This rounds off my Spain vs Belgium bet builder.
