The race to sign one of the Bundesliga’s hottest prospects, Benjamin Sesko, is on. As of this morning, his next club odds have shifted dramatically as both Newcastle United and Manchester United enter the fray for the 22-year-old.
Sky Germany’s Florian Plettenberg reported that both clubs are presenting their project and financial terms ahead of the move, and the decision of where he ends up primarily lies with the player.
Newcastle are “ready to go big” and have submitted a proposal if (or when) Alexander Isak departs, according to Fabrizio Romano and Ben Jacobs on X.
Manchester United are looking to hijack yet another transfer target for the Magpies after locking in both Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha earlier in the window.
A move for the highly rated Slovenian forward won’t come cheap, and he only extended his deal at RB Leipzig last summer to 2029. However, multiple German and UK outlets have reported a “sliding scale” mechanism (gentleman’s agreement) in the contract that would allow him to leave for around €70-80 million, rising with games and goals.
Benjamin Sesko’s next club odds suggest that Newcastle are still leading the race. However, their price has drifted from 1/3 to 4/6 (60% implied probability) with Manchester United shortening to 11/8 (42.1% implied probability) as interest from Old Trafford intensifies.
Benjamin Sesko Transfer Odds
Here’s a look at what the best betting sites are saying about where Sesko is heading with his latest transfer odds:
| Sesko Next Club | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 4/6 | bet365 |
| Manchester United | 11/8 | BetVictor |
| Stay at RB Leipzig | 8/1 | bet365 |
| Chelsea | 20/1 | BetVictor |
| Arsenal | 28/1 | bet365 |
Tyne to Make a Move? Newcastle Chase Their Next No.9
With news that Alexander Isak could depart this summer, Eddie Howe will be desperate to get a plug-and-play No.9 of similar upside.
Sesko ticks the long-term asset box that is part of the club's and PIF recruitment plan. He’s 22, shares many similar traits with Isak, and would come at a price that allows them to utilise a potential £120m+ windfall from the Swede's departure to invest in other areas of the squad.
Tactically, Sesko would be a great fit. Howe’s desire to stick with a trusted 4-3-3 formation allows him to play through the middle, benefitting from early wide deliveries from Gordon, Elanga, Murphy, Hall and Livramento.
He’s also exceptionally aggressive on the counter-press, having the ability to shift quick vertical transitions into fully fledged attacks.
The draw for Sesko will be serious main character vibes. Once Isak leaves, he’d be the face of one of the most exciting prospects in Europe, leading the line in the Champions League, which is something Manchester United can’t guarantee.
Obstacles over wages and PSR/FFP headroom have plagued the Geordies since the takeover in 2021, and a deal will likely include structured payments, which may not suit RB Leipzig.
A bigger issue that might occur is if Isak stays. Would Sesko be willing to rotate? He may want guarantees, which will be difficult given Eddie Howe’s desire to play a single central striker.
Odds of 4/6 still suggest that Newcastle is the most likely move, but with so many moving parts to the deal, it seems a long way off as of now.
Devils in the Details as United Push for Sesko
Manchester United’s rebuild under INEOS is still lacking a long-term No. 9. Rasmus Hojlund is promising, but he needs competition and has yet to prove that he’s ready to lead the line and help United return to the league's elite.
It’s no secret that Amorim is looking for another centre-forward option and after watching rivals Arsenal (Gyökeres) and Liverpool (Ekitike + potentially Isak) both strengthen in the summer, the door is starting to close on world-class alternatives.
What United lack in European opportunities this year, they make up for in brand and platform. They are still (commercially) one of the biggest clubs in the world, and if Sesko has ambitions of eyeing a Ballon d’Or shortlist down the line, Old Trafford still carries aura.
In terms of a football fit, he ticks all the boxes. Amorim demands a high work rate off the ball, which Sesko will give without lacking the quality of sticking the ball in the back of the net.
He averages 5.06 progressive passes received per 90 (49th percentile), which indicates he has already adapted to finding pockets. However, with Bruno feeding him, this number could spike again.
Given that United's summer spending has already surpassed the €150 million mark, PSR sensitivity means that players may need to leave before a deal is finalised. Alejandro Garnacho has already been tipped with a move to Chelsea, and there looks like there's no road back for Antony now, adding to Amorim’s honey pot. A deal to get Sesko over the line would cap off a successful window for The Red Devils.