Four players, three matches, one shot at darting immortality. Luke Littler, Luke Humphries, Gerwyn Price and Nathan Aspinall are all just a few shots shy of lifting the Premier League trophy. And here's the tasty bit, we reckon the bookies have dropped a clanger on the odds. So, we’re breaking down the value on each contender, so you can line up your best shot.
On 29th May, Luke Littler takes on Gerwyn Price in the first semi-final, before Luke Humphries locks horns with Nathan Aspinall to decide who’ll join them in a final race to 11 legs for the Premier League Darts crown.
And the bookies have nailed their colours to the mast when it comes to a favourite.
| Premier League Darts 2025 Outright Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Luke Littler | 4/5 |
| Gerwyn Price | 6/1 |
| Luke Humphries | 2/1 |
| Nathan Aspinall | 10/1 |
But in our opinion, their accuracy isn’t quite up to the standard of a prime Phil Taylor. We think they’ve bungled some of these, which means there’s some potentially superb value returns on the outrights.
Here’s a look at each contender, and why we reckon the bookies have seriously missed the mark.
Luke Littler: 4/5 Odds – Can The Nuke Detonate the Competition?
At 4/5 odds, even the most generous pricing has Littler as odds-on to win the Premier League Darts and it’s easy to see why.
The Nuke has been the most consistent performer of the tournament, his 45 points dwarfing Humphries’ 34 like the Jolly Green Giant beside a cob of sweetcorn.
But that doesn’t count here.
What truly matters is whether Littler can get the better of Gerwyn Price and the other finalist.
First off, Price has beaten Littler three times this tourney, so let’s not forget that old saying about assumptions and take it for granted he’s making the final.
And if he does get there? Well, Littler only has a winning Premier League darts record against Aspinall.
Does that really justify odds above evens?
Don’t get us wrong, Littler’s a proper machine, but the bookies tend to overrate him.
We reckon his true chances are closer to 35-40%, so these odds don’t quite add up to good value.
Gerwyn Price: 6/1 Odds – The Iceman’s Not Melting Yet
Bookmakers who’ve marked Gerwyn Price as a rank outsider at 7/2 (14.3% implied probability) might want to jog their memories. After all, this is the man who stunned the darts world when he beat Gary Anderson to become the first Welsh PDC Champion.
And make no mistake, The Iceman is still as sharp as the bottom of a pair of ice skates.
He’s taken three wins off both Littler and Humphries, and two off Aspinall in this very Premier League campaign.
Sure, he’s only just scraped into the top four on 24 points, but he’s still got a winning record in this tournament against every other potential finalist.
Granted, he’s not as steady as the two Lukes topping the odds, but with recent wins over the lot of them, those 7/2 odds look slimmer than a snake on Weight Watchers. We’d rate him closer to 20%. So, if you fancy a punt on an outsider, Gerwyn Price could well be your man.
Luke Humphries: 2/1 Odds – Cooler Than a Pint in January
It absolutely boggles our noggins how bookmakers keep underestimating Cool Hand Luke. Sure, 2/1 odds (a one in three shot) isn’t shabby, but still feels a touch on the stingy side when we’re talking about the World Number One.
Now, Humphries hasn’t exactly been Mr Consistent in this tournament, but across the sport? He’s hands down the most reliable man on the circuit. Even Littler can’t get close to his eye-watering (nearly) £2 million in winnings over the past two years.
A runaway freight train of talent, he's showing no signs of slowing down.
Humphries bagged the PDC World Masters in February, his seventh televised PDC major title, proving once again he can handle the heat when the air on the oche is thick enough to send those darts bouncing back.
Most reckon it’s heading for a Humphries vs Littler final, and we’re inclined to agree. That one’s always a coin flip between the best two in the world. Yes, Littler holds a 5–3 edge over him in this tournament, but let’s be honest, it could go either way on the night.
So, weighing it all up, we’ve got Humphries and Littler dead level at around 35-40% each to take the title. And if you’re after the best value, Cool Hand Luke had the edge.
Nathan Aspinall: 10/1 – Asping for a Miracle in the Final Four
As the only man in the final four with a losing record against all three of his opponents, we actually think Aspinall’s 10/1 odds (that’s a 9.1% implied chance) are rather generous.
In truth, we’d have him closer to half that, under 5%. And it pains us to say it, because The Asp is a class act, no doubt about it. He’s shown he belongs at the top with his first European Tour title this very year. But we’ve got to call it how we see it.
Can a player who hasn’t managed to get the better of any of the remaining contenders really go all the way? You’d may as well stuff those chances into a magician’s box because they’re vanishing.
Yes, if we’re wrong, you’ll get a cracking return backing him, but truth be told, we wouldn’t count on it.
