The Premier League Fixtures for the 2025/26 season have been released. The last two Premier League seasons have seen the three promoted teams go straight back down to the Championship. The bookies are expecting at least two of the three to be relegated with bet365 offering 11/10 for two teams to go down and 2/1 for all three to be demoted.
Leeds face Toffees Test, Burnley go to Spurs, Sunderland host West Ham
Leeds United must wait until the Monday after the opening weekend to kick off their campaign when they host Everton at Elland Road. While this is by no means an easy task, Daniel Farke’s side will be desperate to put points on the board, given that they travel to Arsenal in their next match, before hosting Newcastle United at the end of August.
The Yorkshire side close their campaign with a home match against Brighton and a trip to West Ham. By no means easy, but there are tougher places to go at the end of the season when you are scrapping for points.
Burnley face a trip to Tottenham before a home match with Sunderland which already looks like a six-pointer. They end the opening month with a visit to Old Trafford. After enduring torrid league campaigns last season, it remains to see how Spurs and Manchester United will start, but they represent two tricky away fixtures for the Clarets. Burnley must negotiate matches against Aston Villa and Arsenal in the run-in, before finishing with a home game against Wolves.
Sunderland, favourites to go down, will need to make the most of the first month. The trip to fellow promoted side Burnley will be crucial, while either side of that they have home matches against West Ham and Brentford. Not easy, but games where they must look to take something if they have any chance of staying up. Their run-in is potentially problematic, facing Man United, Everton and Chelsea in their last three games.
One fixture that catches the eye is Burnley’s trip to Leeds with four matches remaining. A potential survival shoot-out!
Promoted Teams to Survive? What the Bookies are Saying
Pundits have always spoken about the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship, however, while this has possibly been exaggerated in the past, it has proved to be the case over the past two seasons. In the 2023/24 season Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all went down, followed by Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton in 2024/25.
The two bottom sides, Sheffield United and Southampton garnered only 16 and 12 points respectively. The benchmark total for survival in the Premier League was said to be 40 points for a number of years. In the last two seasons 27 points and 26 points would have been enough to ensure safety.
Let’s have a look at the odds from bet365 on the chances of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland to go down.
| Number of Promoted Teams to be Relegated | Odds from bet365 |
|---|---|
| 0 | 20/1 |
| 1 | 5/2 |
| 2 | 11/10 |
| 3 | 2/1 |
The bookie offers the following prices on individual clubs to be relegated.
| To be relegated | Odds from bet365 |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 3/10 |
| Burnley | 2/5 |
| Leeds United | 4/5 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10/3 |
| Brentford | 9/2 |
| Fulham | 6/1 |
EFL Championship winners Leeds United are rated as the least likely team to go down. But their chances of only spending one season in the Premier League are rated at 55.6% implied probability. While Wolves, who are deemed to be the established Premier League team most in danger, have only 23.1% implied probability of relegation.
Let’s look at the three promoted sides and assess their chances.
Leeds United: Elland Road Crowd an Advantage
After winning the Championship Leeds look the strongest on paper. Add in the effect of the crowd at Elland Road and, if they get some signings in, they could make a good fist of staying up. We think that one team surely has to buck the trend and Leeds look the most likely. Much will depend on whether Thomas Frank’s departure sees Brentford struggling and whether Wolves can sustain their end of season form.
Burnley: Promotion Built on Strong Defence
Burnley were far too open two seasons ago and paid for it. Their promotion campaign saw them concede a miserly 16 goals in 46 matches. Retaining goalkeeper James Trafford, heavily linked with Newcastle United, could be key. Despite their defensive organisation we feel that the Clarets lack a bit of punch upfront so without signings they may not score enough goals to survive.
Sunderland: Losing Bellingham a Blow
Regis Le Bris has done a great job at Sunderland, but the playoff winners will have their work cut out. They have some exciting young players like Chris Rigg and Trai Hume who will only get better and, arguably, may be better suited to top flight football. Similarly to Leeds, the crowd at the Stadium of Light can play a massive part.
Losing Jobe Bellingham to Borussia Dortmund was a blow, and they need to reinvest that money wisely to cover the hole in midfield. Experience is vital and if they don’t make signings of Premier League quality who know their way around it looks like they will be playing second tier football in 2026/27.
