The bookies are live with the latest Premier League top 5 odds as we enter what is set to be an epic final day in the race for the remaining Champions League spots.
Arsenal’s win over Newcastle last weekend ensures the Gunners have joined title winners Liverpool among Europe’s elite next season.
However, with three places still up for grabs and five teams in the hunt, it doesn’t take Carol Vorderman to calculate that this is going down to the wire.
Just three points separate third and seventh, and even though City overcame a stubborn Bournemouth side on Tuesday evening, they too still need a point or results to go their way for qualification.
As It Stands: Premier League Top 5 Odds
A win for Manchester City, Newcastle United and Chelsea will be job done for these three teams, and as you can see from the table, their Premier League top 5 odds suggest this is the most likely result.
| Position | Team | Games Played | Points | Goal Difference | Top 5 Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Manchester City | 37 | 68 | +26 | 1/25 | William Hill |
| 4th | Newcastle United | 37 | 66 | +22 | 1/5 | bet365 |
| 5th | Chelsea | 37 | 66 | +20 | 4/7 | bet365 |
| 6th | Aston Villa | 37 | 66 | +9 | 5/4 | BetVictor |
| 7th | Nottingham Forest | 37 | 65 | +13 | 4/1 | William Hill |
What is Opta’s Supercomputer Saying?
It feels like the Supercomputer has been in overdrive this season. With the final game in sight, here is who the boffins at Opta predict will finish in the top 5 of the Premier League.
| Team | % to Finish Top 5 |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | 96.8% |
| Newcastle United | 82.1% |
| Chelsea | 57.9% |
| Aston Villa | 43.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19.8% |
Manchester City – 3rd, 68 Points, +26 Goal Difference, 96.8% Opta (1/25 with William Hill)
Fixture: Fulham vs Man City
City are the most likely of the five chasing the Champions League places.
A win or a draw (based on a far superior goal difference) will be enough for Guardiola after what has been a torrid season at the Etihad.
But if they were to lose at Craven Cottage, then they would need results to go their way. A win for Newcastle, Villa and Chelsea would see them leapfrog City, pushing them down into the Europa League places.
If we’re being picky, even a draw doesn’t seal the deal. However, it would take multiple records to break in Villa’s game against Manchester United for this to come to fruition, so we’re satisfied a point will be enough.
Prediction: Man City to win and make top 5.
Newcastle United – 4th, 66 Points, +22 Goal Difference, 82.1% Opta (1/5 with bet365)
Fixture: Newcastle United vs Everton
A win at home to Everton would be enough to guarantee Champions League football for the second time in three seasons as Eddie Howe’s team looks to cap off a memorable year on Tyneside.
It’s still possible to qualify with a point, but they would also need Aston Villa to either draw or lose.
Everton might not be the procession that many are predicting. The Toffee’s have lost just three of their last 10, with wins against Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Southampton along the way.
The Toon Army may also be without star-striker Alexander Isak, who missed the defeat to Arsenal at the weekend.
Nevertheless, this is still a winnable game, and given the context, we expect them to build on their Carabao Cup final success by returning to Europe’s elite.
Prediction: Newcastle to win and make the top 5
Chelsea – 5th, 66 Points, +20 Goal Difference, 57.9% Opta (4/7 with BetVictor)
Fixture: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
A win for Chelsea will guarantee a top 5 Premier League finish due to a far superior goal difference over Aston Villa. A draw will be enough if Villa fails to win at Man United.
If they were to lose to Forest, their Champions League journey would end in disappointment as they would leapfrog The Blues, resulting in a best finish of 6th or 7th.
This is undoubtedly the most challenging game to call, and it’s going to be a tight, cagey affair for both teams.
Chelsea were well beaten when they made the trip up to St James’ Park, but bounced back with a scrappy win against Manchester United, putting their fate back into their own hands.
If they fail to win, they need results to go their way. We’re predicting a bridge too far for Enzo Maresca’s team, as we think they narrowly miss out.
Prediction: Draw. Fail to make the Top 5.
Aston Villa – 6th, 66 Points, +9 Goal Difference, 43.1% Opta (5/4 with bet365)
Fixture: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Aston Villa travel to Old Trafford in their final game, knowing that they must likely win and hope for other results to go their way.
A draw for Villa could still be enough if Newcastle lost to Everton, and Chelsea vs Forest also ended in a draw. However, with Newcastle firm favourites to secure the win, they will be looking for all three points and a stalemate at the City Ground.
The worst-case scenario is that Chelsea and Newcastle both win, which means, due to their significantly inferior goal difference, even a win won’t be enough.
We think they will be too strong for a United side that has just lost in the Europa League final, and results in the other game (notably Forest vs Chelsea) will go their way.
Premier League Top 5 odds for Champions League qualification of 5/4 with BetVictor is the value play here.
Prediction: Aston Villa to win and secure a top 5 finish.
Nottingham Forest – 7th, 65 Points, +13 Goal Difference, 19.8% Opta (4/1 with William Hill)
Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Regardless of whether Forest make the top 5 this season, they can be extremely proud of what they’ve achieved.
From battling for relegation just 12 months prior, to going toe-to-toe with the elite is a remarkably impressive feat.
They are the only team of the four that must win and then rely on other results to go their way. Specifically, Newcastle and Villa to both lose or draw.
While it seems the least likely result of the three games in question, it’s not impossible, and they’ve already locked in European football, regardless of how Sunday ends.
Prediction: Draw. Fail to make top 5.