We can’t remember the last time the bookies got it this wrong. The transfer odds on Xavi Simons are wobblier than a 10-storey Jenga tower and that means there’s serious value up for grabs.
In our view, the bookies have bottled this one and it all starts with a massively overvalued favourite. Dig a little deeper into the markets with bet365, and it’s clear there’s value all over the place. Several alternatives make a strong case, each offering far more rewarding returns than the top pick.
| Club on 03/09/2025 | Odds |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 2/1 |
| Bayern Munich | 4/1 |
| Chelsea | 6/1 |
| Tottenham | 7/1 |
| Manchester United | 8/1 |
Odds correct as of 2:44pm on 19/06/2025. Odds subject to change.
Look at those odds. They’re so scrambled they could be served with toast. But what’s behind the chaos? Let’s dig in.
Staying With RB Leipzig? Bookies Back Leipzig…. We Back Reality
In a nutshell, bookies think that Xavi Simons is staying put at RB Leipzig and we massively disagree. There are multiple reports that Simons has indicated to the Red Bull brass that he wants to go. Put simply, with so much smoke how could there not be a fire?
Especially with Leipzig slumping to seventh last season and missing out on that sweet, sweet European tourney prize money. A £60 million sale would definitely help take the sting out of that disappointment.
Even the man himself said, “I'm still a young player, I have many dreams and the club knows that.” He’s not spelling it out, but come on, read between the lines! And yet they’ve got him at 2/1? That’s a 33.3% probability.
Someone come and collect the bookies from the nonsense store, they’ve already spent up. Still, it’s great news for us, because it’s pushed the value way up elsewhere.
Bayern’s Backup Plan: Why Xavi Simons Could Be the Perfect Fit
Initially, Bayern didn’t seem like a contender but with their top picks Bradley Barcola and Nico Williams seemingly out of reach, the versatile Xavi Simons could be an ideal second choice.
What Bayern Munich really need is a left winger, and while attacking midfield is Xavi’s preferred spot, he’s chipped in with 18 goals and 17 assists from the left, so he’d slot in like loose Lego. And, for a man with big tournament ambitions, Bayern Munich would be a dream home.
But he’s still not their first pick so if something better comes along Die Roten is likely to go with a hotter prospect. All that considered we’d say 4/1 odds (20%) implied probability is probably spot on.
Chelsea Hunt for a Forward: Is Simons the One?
We think Xavi Simons is likely to go to a Premier League team. Why? Well, several clubs have the money to pay for him and several PL teams are hungrier for new blood than Dracula with a hangover.
Top of the bookies’ list is Chelsea, who are hunting for an energetic forward with plenty of room to grow to fill the gap left by Christopher Nkunku and João Félix.
The only problem? There are several other contenders including Hugo Ekitike, Mohammed Kudus, and João Pedro. It’s likely one of them will get the nod, so we’d peg Simons’ chances of moving to Chelsea at around 25%, a big jump from the 6/1 odds (14.3% implied probability) offered by bookies.
And speaking of numbers, we’re 100% certain this market is well worth considering.
Simons in the Mix as Spurs Hit Reset
Most clubs want new players, but few need them as badly as toothless Tottenham, especially with star forward Son Heung-Min reportedly on his way out. Don’t let their Europa League win fool you, Spurs’ season was a mess, flirting with relegation and falling far from their former top-tier status.
Now, with Thomas Frank stepping in as manager, they’ll be desperate to turn a new leaf and inject some spark into their front line. Xavi Simons could be just that, a versatile, high-quality option who fits the bill for a rebuild.
But, like Chelsea, Spurs aren’t short on options. Eberechi Eze appears to be making stronger progress toward a move, and it's unlikely they’ll sign both. So, while we still rate a Simons transfer to Tottenham as possible, we’d put it just under Chelsea’s chances, around a 20% true probability. Still, that’s up from the 7/1 odds (12.5% implied probability) the bookies are offering.
Could Simons Relight the Red Devils’ Flame?
There’s only one team with the cash and a need for Xavi Simons greater than Spurs, and that’s Manchester United, a team looking for a cure to their own apathy. After a historically bad season, they’re suffering from a complete lack of attacking creativity and that’s exactly what Simons can bring into the fold.
Yes, he comes with a hefty price tag, but for a young, ambitious player eager to shine at a European giant, this could be the ideal move. United’s top brass know they need to spend and take big risks if they want to turn things around.
They’ve already landed Matheus Cunha, but with Jadon Sancho on the way out and Alejandro Garnacho potentially on the move, there's a real need for someone versatile, exactly Simons' specialty.
At 8/1 (11.1% implied probability), we think the bookies are well off. We’d place his true chance closer to 35%, which means you're getting nearly triple the value compared to what’s fair. In short, Man United is the best value pick on the board.
