We think the bookies have overcooked the favourites for the US Open, which has pushed up the odds on some of the outsiders. That means there’s some cracking value to be had if you’re willing to look a bit further down the field. And honestly, at 100/1, Tony Finau is criminally underrated for a player of his quality.
Bookmakers seem to think only the big names stand a chance in this tournament, just take a look at how the odds for the top five stack up against Tony Finau for proof.
| 2025 US Open Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 13/5 |
| Bryan DeChambeau | 7/1 |
| Jon Rahm | 11/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 12/1 |
| Xander Schauffelle | 22/1 |
| Tony Finau | 100/1 |
Odds correct as of 1:30pm 11/06/2025. Odds subject to change.
But to be frank, we think they’re way off on this one. Is Tony Finau overwhelming likely to win the US Open? Not likely. But you could say that for any player in a tourney of this magnitude. Everyone is an underdog with this kind of this field. But 100/1? Come off it. Here’s why we think bookies are sleeping on Big Tone.
Big Tone’s Got What It Takes to Shock the World at Oakmont
It feels like Tony Finau’s right on the brink of something big. He’s already got six PGA Tour wins to his name, the most recent coming at the Mexico Open in 2023, where he put on a stunning performance to finish three shots clear of former World Number One Jon Rahm.
It’s been a little while since he last lifted a trophy, but when Finau’s firing, he’s shown he can go toe-to-toe with the very best in the world. And remember, his rise to winning majors didn’t happen overnight. He spent years as a top-10 nearly man before finding his rhythm and starting to rack up big wins from 2016 onwards.
Finau can turn it up a gear, we know because he’s done it many times before.
At last year’s 2024 US Open, he came as close as sand in an hourglass to a career-defining victory, just missing out to Bryan DeChambeau by two shots and finishing up tied in third.
This year it’s Oakmont, a course less forgiving than Tiger Woods’ ex-wife's divorce lawyers. You need power, steely resolve, and plenty of finesse. We reckon Big Tone, the 200-pound Samoan sensation, has all that and then some.
Now, realistically, we don’t think any player has anywhere near above evens odds on winning this thing. But at 100/1, a measly 1% implied probability, we’d say it’s well worth a punt.
Bet365 Welcome Offer Ideal for This Long-Shot
How’s this for a deal? If you sign up with bet365, deposit, and bet a tenner using your debit card on Tony to shake up the golfing world and win the US Open, you’ll get £30 in free bets to use however you like for the next seven days.
So, two outcomes: you either walk away with a grand or you’ve got three more chances to win. Arguably the best value bet of the golfing year paired with one of the UK’s greatest betting promos. This might just be the best combo since bread and butter.