Royal Ascot is one of the biggest events in the sport-of-kings calendar, and the Ascot Gold Cup is its crowning jewel, the absolute cream of the crop in flat racing. It’s a race so fiercely competitive even the bookies look a bit lost at sea. Frankly, some of their odds look about as likely as a jockey making it in the NBA. No surprise then that we’ve managed to spot three contenders offering fantastic value.
A quick glance at the Gold Cup odds from bet365 and it’s clear that Illinois is absolutely running away with the bookies’ predictions.
| To Win Ascot Gold Cup | Odds |
|---|---|
| Illinois | 6/4 |
| Trawlerman | 3/1 |
| Candelari | 7/2 |
| Sweet William | 6/1 |
| Jan Brueghel | 10/1 |
| Yashin | 25/1 |
| Wonder Legend | 33/1 |
| Coltrane | 40/1 |
| Dubai Future | 40/1 |
| Trueshan | 50/1 |
Odds correct as of 1:22pm on 16/06/2025. Odds subject to change.
And while we think the partnership of Illinois and Ryan Moore are in with a decent shout, 6/4 odds (40% implied probability) feels a bit overcooked. That’s brilliant news for punters though, as it means the rest of the field drifts out and there is value to be had elsewhere. Here are three cracking alternatives we'd back instead of the favourite.
Trawlerman: The Uncrowned Favourite
In a nutshell, we reckon the bookies have dropped the ball on the favourite. Because Illinois is not the most likely winner in our opinion.
Why? Just take a look at the form.
Trawlerman has bagged seven flat race wins in seventeen runs (41.1%), while Illinois has managed four from ten (40%). That might not seem like a massive difference, but in a race like this it only takes a nose.
Equally important is the fact that Trawlerman returned on 29th May after a 54-day break to win at Sandown in seriously impressive style. Their odds currently sit at 3/1 which translates to 25%. but we would happily switch that with Illinois and give Trawlerman the 40% true value. In our view, the bookies are off the mark by more than a length.
Jan Brueghel: A Mid-priced Marvel
In terms of percentages, this one’s the pick of the bunch. Six races, five wins on the flat, that’s an 83.3% strike rate. The most recent came at Epsom, following earlier successes at Doncaster and Goodwood before a 55-day break.
So why isn’t Jan Brueghel our favourite? One word – jockey.
Ryan Moore has been on board for most of those wins, but he’s committed to riding Illinois this time. We don’t yet know who’ll take the reins, but in a race of this calibre, a change in jockey adds a layer of uncertainty. That said, if Brueghel clicks with a new partner, an upset could very well be on the cards.
We’d knock those 8/1 odds (11.1% implied probability) up to 20%. A tempting punt if you’re chasing longer odds or spreading your stake across a few top contenders.
Coltrane: This Outsider Hits All The Right Notes
40/1 odds (2.4% implied probability) is absolutely mad for a runner who came second to Trawlerman just weeks ago. He was also runner-up at Ascot toward the end of April.
So yes, this horse has been a bit of a perennial bridesmaid, but that still puts him right on the heels of the favourites. Being priced as such an outsider is more baffling than his namesake's free jazz period.
If you are not totally convinced Coltrane will play his rivals off the stage, we can still wholeheartedly recommend backing him each way. On a tenner split you'd get £45 back if he places, which might just be the best bargain of the whole festival. Coltrane simply needs to do what he has already managed in 16 of 25 races.
Not sure what the bookies are thinking, but we’d say it’s well worth a punt.
More Than Just Gold: Your Royal Ascot Gameplan
But of course, the Gold Cup is just part of the festivities. There are 35 races taking place, starting from Tuesday and finishing up on Saturday. It’s not just a race but a full-blown celebration of the sport, featuring a brilliant variety of contests, all bubbling over with potential value if you know where to look.
And if that sounds a bit overwhelming, here’s something to perk you up quicker than Red Rum after a fresh pack of polos, we’ve put together a comprehensive Royal Ascot guide with absolutely everything you could want to know to make the most of every single day of the festival.
From race breakdowns to top tips, generous promos and the best bookies, it’s all there and ready for you to saddle up and get stuck in.
