If there’s one golden rule in betting, it’s to never get swept away with the hype and we think the bookies have fallen for exactly that trap. We’re set to take advantage and convert their mistake into profit. Our trio of tips is hotter than a kangaroo’s backside in a bushfire.
The bookies have the Aussies as firm underdogs and slapped on a handicap that, fair dinkum, turns a tough call into a bloody beaut of a punt. On top of that, we’ve chucked in a couple of cheeky value plays we reckon could turn a ripper of a game into an all-time thriller. Have a squiz below.
Australia vs British & Irish Lions Game One Odds
| Market | Odds | Return on £10 |
|---|---|---|
| Australia (+11.5) Handicap – Aussies to Beat the Line | 10/11 | £19.09 |
| Under 51.5 Total Points | 10/11 | £19.09 |
| British & Irish Lions to Score in First 10 Minutes – No | 5/6 | £18.33 |
*Odds correct as of 8:47am 18/07/2025
Each of these bets stands strong on its own, but if you’re keen to have a proper crack, why not whack 'em all on? Chucking a tenner on each would see you pocket £56.51 if they all land. Or, if you’re feeling a bit braver, bundle the lot into an acca. A single £10 punt at 4/1 could return £50. Almost the same payoff for a third of the stake… but it’s all or nothing, mate.
Australia vs British & Irish Lions Game One Tips
Bet 1: Australia (+11.5) Handicap – Aussies to Beat the Line (10/11)
Henry Pollock says he wants this year’s British and Irish Lions side to go down as the greatest ever with the target of a 3-0 whitewash. And with a squad this stacked you can see why. Tom Curry leads the pack, the electric back three of Tommy Freeman, James Lowe and Hugo Keenan are primed to pounce, and the Finn Russell and Jamison Gibson-Park combo at halfback promises fireworks. Up front Ellis Genge, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong bring serious punch at the front row, with Joe McCarthy and skipper Maro Itoje locking things down.
It’s a superstar lineup. But is it enough to beat the Aussies by 11 and a half points? We don’t think so.
Sure, the Lions found their rhythm against the AUNZ Invitational, but the squad has changed significantly since. Just look at how hard they had to work for that 36 to 24 win over the Brumbies as proof of the value of playing together as a unit. Chemistry takes time and against a proper Test side like Australia it’s going to get even harder.
Now the Wallabies are not without issues. They are in a rebuild phase missing big units like Will Skelton and Rob Valetini and have several blokes with fewer than 15 caps. But with veterans like Harry Wilson and James Slipper both with Lions series experience steering the ship there is a dangerous mix of grit and fresh firepower.
Add to that the fact no Lions side has swept a series 3-0 since 1904, along with some patchy form in the warm-ups, and this clash looks more like a coin toss than a blowout. The bookies don’t see it that way though, giving Australia an 11-and-a-half-point handicap. To us, that’s a gift. We’re backing the Wallabies to put the Lions under serious pressure and beat that spread.
Bet 2: Under 51.5 Total Points (10/11)
Points markets often offer some of the best value in rugby betting, and this is a prime example. Let’s break it down. Looking at the British & Irish Lions tour, three out of five games went under 52 points. The same goes for the Australian team. So, if everything was evenly matched, there’s about a 60% chance the total points would go under 51.5.
But here’s where we reckon the value lies. These two teams have stronger defences and are more evenly matched than most of their recent opponents, which should keep the scoring lower. We’d put the true probability of the total points being under 51.5 at around 80%, while the bookies are pricing it close to evens. It’s a classic case of wishful thinking pushing the market beyond reason, and we’re more than happy to take advantage.
Bet 3: British & Irish Lions to Score in First 10 Minutes – No (5/6)
No clue what the bookies are thinking with this one. The Lions have played six matches on tour and only scored in the first ten minutes twice. Both times were in their best games, the 48-0 thrashing of the AUNZ Invitational and the 54-7 smashing of the Force. The Wallabies are a much tougher team to break early. We reckon there is only about a 10 to 15% chance the Lions get over the line that quickly. Bonza odds of 5/6, which mean a 54.6% chance they don’t score that early, looks as golden as a cold one in the outback.
Whack a Tenner on bet365 and Score £30 in Free Bets – A Dead Set Steal
Back our picks? If you’re not signed up yet, bet365 is our top shout. Not only are all our odds pulled from them, but you’ll get £30 in free bets when you pop a tenner on using a debit card. That means win or lose, you’re bagging 300% in extra stake to throw at whatever markets you fancy. More shots at a tidy profit, less risk to your wallet. Easy.
