Botafogo are poised to top the group, but all four teams have a chance to progress tonight, in their last round of group stage fixtures.
In Club World Cup betting, Group B was supposed to be dominated by PSG and Atlético Madrid, but Botafogo had other plans, stunning the European champions and dispatching Seattle with ease.
The odds of winning the group have completely flipped. Botafogo are firm favourites, as the only unbeaten team in the group. Here are the odds with bet365:
| Team | To Win Group | To Qualify |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 4/5 | 7/50 |
| PSG | 1/1 | 1/10 |
| Atlético Madrid | 10/1 | 5/2 |
| Seattle Sounders FC | N/A | N/A |
Botafogo now face Atlético Madrid, and PSG take on Seattle Sounders FC at 8 pm tonight. The full-time results odds are quite interesting, especially for the Brazilian outfit, and we’ve got a few more value picks for you too.
Atlético Madrid vs Botafogo
The clash of the night, a win for both is needed to guarantee progression through the group stage. The Club World Cup points tie breaker is based on head-to-head records first, not goal difference. So, Atlético would leapfrog Botafogo if they win, even if they have a worse goal difference.
We’re backing the Brazilians to keep their form up and take down their second European opponents, especially after beating what is arguably the best European team this year. Here are our picks and the odds from bet365.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Full Time Result: Botafogo | 24/5 |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | 4/10 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 33/50 |
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Full Time Result: Botafogo: Our first prediction is a biggie. We’re backing the ‘underdogs’ to romp to the top of the group and beat Atleti. O Glorioso have been playing great football and are showing that they want it more. Also, Atlético Madrid lost 4-0 to PSG, and Botafogo beat PSG 1-0. You do the maths.
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Both Teams to Score: Yes: Both teams need a win tonight, so they’ll have to get out there and chase a goal. Atlético need two to guarantee progression, so we expect the two sides to score.
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Under 9.5 Corners: The group hasn’t seen many corners this tournament. Atlético and Botafogo have only won 5 corners across their 4 games played. Botafogo have only taken one corner against PSG, and Atleti got 2 in each match. We don’t expect to see many here.
PSG vs Seattle Sounders FC
This should be one of the easiest games PSG will play this calendar year. The European Champions will guarantee their progression out of Group B with a win here, mainly thanks to their superior goal difference.
Finding betting value in one-sided matches can be tricky, but we’ve got a couple of tips which could see you win alongside PSG. Here are the odds with bet365.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score: No | 7/10 |
| Both Teams to Receive a Card | 33/50 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 83/100 |
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Both Teams to Score: No: Even though Seattle Sounders have managed a goal in each of their last games, we think PSG will finally kick it into second gear and hold them off, winning pretty convincingly.
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Both Teams to Receive a Card: PSG have received 2 cards, while Seattle have received 3. We think that both teams will end up getting at least one card each, especially if Seattle are able to hold off PSG long enough for them to get frustrated.
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Over 9.5 corners: PSG have won the most corners in the group, with 14, Seattle Sounders have won 8, the second most. The style of play of both teams favours a high number of corners, and that’s what we’re backing here.
Possible Group Outcomes
The group is still wide open. Any team can technically go through, although each team’s likelihood of progressing varies wildly.
There’s also a new format to separate teams on tied points. The first factor is head-to-head record, so tied teams will be awarded their spot based on who won their match; in the case of a tie, overall goal difference is taken into account.
In the case of three teams ending up tied on the same points, the results of the matches between each side that are level are taken, followed by goal difference in those matches.
Here’s what each team needs to progress from the group.
Botafogo
A win or a draw will guarantee Botafogo's progression. As long as they get points on the board, no team can overtake them, and they’ll win the group.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid need a win. With a win over Botafogo, they’ll end the round with 6 points and beat Botafogo on the head-to-head record. They would lose to PSG on head-to-head record, though, and with the worst goals difference of the three, they’ll struggle to progress.
PSG
A win will guarantee PSG’s progression. They may have lost to Botafogo, but they beat Atlético Madrid with a better goal difference, so they should progress over Atleti if we end up with three teams on 6 points.
Seattle Sounders FC
It’s a long shot, but if Botafogo beat Atlético Madrid, and Seattle beat PSG by 4 goals, they would progress with a superior goal difference to PSG and Atlético Madrid. We wouldn’t bet on this anytime soon, though.