In the early hours of Tuesday morning, Nuno Espírito Santo became the first managerial casualty of the 2025/26 Premier League season. With former Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou about to take charge at the City Ground, the markets have been in raptures, slashing Nottingham Forest’s chances of survival from 12/1 into 6/1 on the back of the appointment.
A dark cloud has loomed over Forest for several weeks now, with the relationship between Nuno and the owner, Evangelos Marinakis, becoming fractured. In a bizarre interview, the recently departed Forest boss slammed upper management’s decision not to back him on transfers and even stated that their relationship had “changed”.
It eventually resulted in a rapport that couldn’t be repaired, marking the beginning of the end for Nuno and his time at Forest.
Given the speed of Ange Postecoglou’s appointment, this has clearly been a deal that’s been agreed for some time now. He makes an almost immediate return to management after guiding Spurs to their first trophy for 22 years, albeit with a 17th-place league finish.
News of Postecoglou’s switch hasn’t gone down well in the Premier League relegation odds market. Odds of 12/1 for Forest to be relegated on Tuesday afternoon were slashed to 6/1 on Wednesday morning, suggesting that confidence in the Australian’s ability to steady the ship is low.
Do Nottingham Forest’s Relegation Odds Offer Value?
A drop from 12/1 to 6/1 is massive. In terms of implied probability, the bookies have moved the needle from 7.7% to 14.3% in one of the most significant cuts we’ve seen in the market over a 12-hour period.
The short answer to the question is no. It appears to be a considerable overreaction, with a headline price offering little to no edge. It’s almost certainly arrived on the back of public money, wading into a market that has little to no liquidity for Forest at this point.
Granted, the current dramas at the City Ground wouldn’t look out of place on an episode of Ted Lasso, but Postecoglou’s appointment doesn’t warrant a cut of this magnitude.
There’ll be times this season where they struggle, and making Europe again will be a huge ask. Questions will be asked about Postecoglou’s credentials and his system when they ultimately lose games they were winning last season. But it’s just who they are, mate, and more a reflection of their overperformance in 2024/25, rather than struggles for this season.
If you still think Forest will go down…
Betway are priced as high as 9/1 for Forest to face the drop and are industry-best for this market. So, if you think we've got it wrong and want maximum value, this is the way to go. Don't have an account? Grab a welcome offer worth up to £30 below:
Three Alternative Premier League Relegation Picks
If Forest aren't going down, who is, and where is the value?
We’re only three games into the season, but it’s been a fascinating start. Sunderland were an early pick for the drop, but with the sheer volume of players in and bits of quality amongst them, they’re looking solid. As a result, they could become the first newly promoted team to avoid the drop in three seasons.
Things look promising on Wearside, so we’ve three alternatives that look better value in the market right now, with the latest odds taken from across some of the best betting sites in the industry.
*Odds correct as of 11:00 BST on 9/9/2025. Odds subject to change.
Claret and Blues: Burnley Sinking Fast
Burnley fans have two hopes: Bob Hope and no hope. There’s just no scenario where Burnley can stay in the league this season, and the first three games have shown little to suggest otherwise, aside from a home win against Sunderland that, on another day, they could have lost.
The squad is too small, and unlike Sunderland, they’ve opted against rolling the dice with a significant financial outlay, which is entirely understandable, given the extreme gap between the Championship and Premier League these days.
Scott Parker is doing a great job with the tools at his disposal, but even at 1/3, there’s a lot of value in this price, which could plummet if they lose the next two or three games.
Wolves Losing Their Bite After Cunha and Aït-Nouri Exit
Wolves were one of our early-season picks to go down, and there’s been little to change our minds thus far. They look void of quality, and losing both Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri in the summer has been impossible to repair.
If Vítor Pereira can’t find goals from the likes of Jørgen Strand-Larsen and Hee-Chan, the floor falls away quickly. Their Premier League relegation odds seem to shorten weekly, and at 17/20 this is a price you need to get on sooner rather than later.
Marching On Together… Towards the Championship?
Out of our three picks to face the drop this season, Leeds have the best chance of staying in the division. They’ve looked energetic on the pitch and have been busy in the window, securing much-needed defensive reinforcements like Jaka Bijol and Sebastiaan Bornauw.
This is a classic breakup situation where it’s not you, it’s me. And by this we mean that when you look at others who could go down, Leeds are the most likely, but not through the want of trying. They’ll have some big wins this season, but we’re concerned about consistency, and for that reason, odds of 9/4 look a good price for Leeds to land back in the Championship next season.
