Somehow, we’re almost a quarter of the way through the season, and the 2025/26 Premier League is starting to take shape. It’s a crucial time as we bolt towards the final international break of the year, and even at this early stage, it can be make or break for teams and managers alike.
It’s been a crazy opening nine games. All three promoted clubs have laid the foundations to break a two-season cycle of immediate relegation, Arsenal have formed a four-point cushion at the top of the league, and current Premier League champions Liverpool have lost as many games this season (4) as they did in the whole of last season. Predictably unpredictable, as only the Premier League can be.
With two weeks until the international break, we’re looking ahead to see how the markets are shaping up and if we can spot some value from the best betting sites ahead of a crucial run of games at both ends of the table.
Premier League Winner Odds
| Winner | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4/9 | bet365 |
| Man City | 5/1 | bet365 |
| Liverpool | 8/1 | Betway |
| Man United | 25/1 | bet365 |
| Chelsea | 40/1 | bet365 |
*Odds correct at 10:00 GMT on 27/10/2025. Odds subject to change.
It may only be October, but it feels like the title race is Arsenal’s to lose. They’re four points clear of Bournemouth in second, but more importantly, six clear of City and seven of Liverpool, putting Arteta’s side with one hand on the trophy.
Liverpool, City and Chelsea all losing at the weekend was a gift, and it felt like a significant shift for the Gunners. They’ve been consistent, if not spectacular, and there are attacking metrics that might yet throw a spanner in the works. They’ve got the lowest percentage of goals from open play in the league (31%) and a huge reliance on set pieces, with nine from 16. They’re more Pulis than Pep, but it’s working. For now.
| Goals | 16 | 4th |
| Set-piece goals (exc. Pens) | 9 | 1st |
| Open play goals | 5 | 17th |
| Open play xG | 7.8 | 8th |
| % goals from open play | 31% | 20th |
| % xG from open play | 57% | 19th |
If they are to win the league, this pattern of play, you would think, is not sustainable. But in the short term, they play two newly promoted sides in Burnley (A) and Sunderland (A) before the international break. Two tricky games given the respective teams' current form, but six more points begging to be won.
Odds of 4/9 with bet365 to win the league might look huge in two weeks' time, and even though short, it is the value play. However, if they don’t improve on those open-play metrics, they will struggle. While short-term, taking 4/9 is strong, long-term, it might be worth waiting until after Christmas to see where they stand and if these stats improve. Even a slight uptick will be significant enough to level out the drop in set-piece goals.
Premier League Relegation Odds
| To be Relegated | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 2/7 | Betfred |
| Burnley | 4/7 | Spreadex |
| West Ham | 8/13 | bet365 |
| Nottingham Forest | 11/4 | Ladbrokes |
| Leeds | 7/2 | Betfred |
*Odds correct at 10:00 GMT on 27/10/2025. Odds subject to change.
Wolves have had a howler of a start to the season. They’re the only team yet to win in the top four flights of English football, and conceding in the 95th minute to lose at home to Burnley on Sunday felt significant. It was a game where they created enough chances to take all three points, but when your luck is out, your luck is out.
With two away games in the capital against Fulham and then Chelsea, it’s tough to see where their next points are coming from. It’s likely going to be Vitor Pereira’s last chance to save his job, and while 2/7 for Wolves to go down has zero value at this stage of the season, 4/6 on Pereira to be the next manager sacked looks a much more enticing bet.
Aside from Wolves, the Premier League relegation market is wide open. Forest under Dyche will likely kick on, so 11/4 isn’t all that exciting. No club has ever had 11+ points after nine games and gone down, so based on that, Leeds should be OK.
West Ham, on the other hand, are in big trouble. The appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo has had little impact, and they’ve not won since beating Forest in August. They have two home games coming up, against a Newcastle side that is starting to hit its straps, and a massive game against Burnley. Fail to win either of those games, and 8/13 will be cut quicker than an office worker at Old Trafford.
Top 6 Finish Betting Odds
| Top 6 Finish | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 4/7 | bet365 |
| Man United | 4/5 | bet365 |
| Newcastle | 5/4 | bet365 |
| Tottenham | 7/4 | Betfred |
| Bournemouth | 11/8 | bet365 |
| Aston Villa | 3/1 | bet365 |
*Odds correct at 10:00 GMT on 27/10/2025. Odds subject to change.
INFO
Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool have been omitted from the table as they are almost certain to be in the top six come the end of the season.
The race for Europe is up for grabs. In fact, it’s arguably never been as competitive, with around 11 clubs that have a legitimate chance of getting into those lucrative top six positions.
There are arguments for each of them, but a team (and price) that caught our eye is Aston Villa at 3/1. It was a slow start to the season for Unai Emery’s side, who failed to score in the opening four games, but are now unbeaten in seven and riding high following a 1-0 victory over Manchester City to make that four wins in a row.
They sit one point behind sixth as it stands, with Liverpool (A) and Bournemouth (H) before the international break. Two tricky games, without a doubt, but it’s a great time to play Liverpool as they have lost each of their last four, and while Bournemouth at home won’t be easy, they’ll be favourites for that as well.
If Villa can get four points from the next two games, odds of 3/1 to make the top six will be slashed and is arguably the best value betting play over the next fortnight.
