Baz bawl. No balls. Average Joe. If ever you needed a reminder that the first Ashes Test is on the horizon, the Aussie media have unleashed a tirade of rage-baiting headlines as they look to stoke the fire ahead of England’s arrival down under. And it’s safe to say they aren’t impressed with the Three Lions’ preparation heading into the opener at the Perth Stadium.
There are plenty who share their sentiments, albeit framed a little more constructively. Lord Botham has echoed much of the criticism, calling the decision to play just a single warm-up game against the England Lions “arrogant”, concerned that the team heads into the bear pit vastly underprepared.
But as we approach the morning of the first Test, the talking stops. The noise surrounding selection, preparation, form and fitness shifts to optimism for England fans. Can England win down under for the first time since 2010-11? Will Bazball work in the most hostile of environments? Are England fresh or underprepared? Let’s take a look and see where the value lies in the Ashes betting markets for the first Test.
Australia vs England Betting Tips Overview
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England to win the first test – 31/20
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Scott Boland top Australian bowler – 3/1
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Mark Wood top English bowler – 3/1
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England to score most sixes – 11/10
Ashes 2025-26 First Test Winner Betting Tips and Odds
*Odds correct at 10:20 GMT on 19/11/2025. Odds subject to change.
England must set the tone in the first Test in Perth. Their record, however, is dismal at the former home of cricket in Western Australia – the WACA – winning just once (1986-87) in 13 Ashes Tests (D3, L9). A total graveyard. So, a shift to the Perth Stadium, less than a mile away from the WACA, will come as some relief for England.
The numbers don’t improve when we look at opening Ashes Tests in general. England are without a win since 1986-87 – albeit with all previous openers played at the Gabba in Brisbane – and haven’t won a test in Australia since 2010-11.
But there’s a glimmer of hope this time around. Since Brendan McCullum took charge in 2022, England have a perfect first Test record overseas, winning five from five on tours of Pakistan, New Zealand and India.
Bazball arrives on Australian shores for the first time, so while the history books would suggest a more pessimistic outlook for Friday morning’s opener, there’s an air of uncertainty, which can lead to value.
There’s also the massive news that both Australian skipper Pat Cummins and star bowler Josh Hazlewood will miss the game through injury. Thirty-one-year-old Brendan Doggart will debut and maintain the team's desire to keep all players within a bracket eligible for the state pension, and with that comes risk.
England won’t get a better chance to land their first win in Australia for almost 15 years. If they have hope of returning with the urn, it’s a must-win, and we’re backing them to do just that at 31/20 with BetMGM.
Prediction: England to (finally) win the first Ashes Test at 31/20 with BetMGM
Scott Boland Top Australian Wicket Taker – 3/1 Boyle Sports
Losing the likes of Cummins and Hazlewood, two of the best seam bowlers in world cricket, has opened the door for an old enemy of England in the form of Scott Boland.
His Test record is incredible, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average of 16.53. Hi lack of more caps is a testament to how good Australia’s ever-present quartet, which includes Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc, has been over the past few years.
In Australia, his record is even more absurd, taking 49 wickets at 12.63. And England have the scars to prove it as they were on the receiving end of Boland’s debut Ashes in 2021-22, where he picked up 18 wickets at 9.55 in three Tests, including the infamous 6/7 at the MCG that rubber-stamped yet another series win for the Aussies.
With no Cummins or Hazlewood, the market has moved heavily in favour of Starc, shortening to 11/5 with the best cricket betting sites to be the top wicket taker in the first test. However, with uncertainties about how this four-week-old, drop-in pitch will behave, especially with how green it looks a couple of days from the start, it could favour Boland’s slightly more military-mediums than Starc’s outright pace.
Prediction: Scot Boland to be first Test top Australian wicket taker at 3/1 with Boyle Sports
Mark Wood Top English Wicket Taker – 3/1 BetMGM
Injuries have once again plagued Mark Wood’s preparation for a run in the England team. He pulled up in the warm-up game against the Lions, but after a scan on his hamstring came back clear on Tuesday, the Joker looks set to start in the first Test.
The fact that the Aussies are without their two main quicks has almost definitely forced the hand of McCullum and Stokes to get Wood into this team. England smell blood, if only a slight whiff, and we all know how important this opener is.
Ideally, they’d have rested Wood to allow him a little more recovery time, but it’s time England doesn’t have, and his record in the Ashes is second to none in this team.
Even though England were well and truly hammered 4-0 in the 2021-22 tour, Wood was one of the few genuine success stories, taking 17 wickets in four Tests, with a career best of 6/37 in Hobart.
On his day, he’s one of the best in the world. Few can consistently bowl 95mph+ with any control, which gives him an x-factor. His spells will be short and sharp, and managing his workload will be vital, but if there is pace and bounce in the track, he’ll be a handful.
Prediction: Mark Wood top England bowler at 3/1 with BetMGM
England to Score Most Sixes in the Match – 11/10 with bet365
Since Bazball began in 2022, England have regularly topped the Test sixes chart. That first year, they set the record (89) for the most sixes scored and the highest average run rate (4.13).
They regularly have the top six hitters in world cricket, with Stokes (17) and Root (15) both in the top three in 2023 and Jamie Smith (15) and Harry Brook (14) inside the top 10 in 2024. Oh, and we should add that no player has cleared the rope more than Ben Stokes in the history of the (Test) game, with 136.
England’s attacking intent is clear to see, but what’s just as telling is the lack of Aussies in any of these lists. Their big guns in the form of Smith, Labuschagne and Khawaja are accumulation specialists. Granted, they have the likes of Travis Head and Cameron Green, who are more than capable of giving it a tap, but it’s not the depth in pinch hitters that England have.
Both teams are, shockingly, priced at 11/10 with some cricket betting apps for most sixes, which makes England an absolute no-brainer.
Prediction: England to score the most sixes at 11/10 with bet365.
Ashes Series 2025-26 Odds and Predictions
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Ben Stokes Top England Bowler – 5/1 with Parimatch
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Harry Brook Top England Batsman – 3/1 with 10Bet
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Australia to Win the Series 3-1 – 15/2 with bet365
We’re kicking off our wider Ashes betting tips with captain fantastic, Ben Stokes, to be the leading wicket-taker for England. In a series where both teams have bowling attacks made from glass, Stokes will have to play a key role with the ball.
Rotation with Wood and Archer is a given, but Stokes will play every match, assuming fit. It might come down to a numbers game, and he’ll likely bowl more than both Archer and Wood. He’s fresh from a 17-wicket haul in the summer Test series against India and is a big price at 5/1 to carry that form down under.
Next, we have Harry Brook. He’s had an incredible start to his Test career, scoring 2,820 runs at 57.55. He didn’t have the greatest home Ashes series in 2023, scoring 363 runs at 40.33, but he’s matured immeasurably since then, and after Root, he’s England’s most talented batsman. Priced at 3/1 for the top English run scorer is the play.
Finally, it’s tin hat time. Hearts are firmly with England to end 15 years of misery in Australia, but the smart play has to be with the Baggy Greens. England to win the first Test, but the Aussies to ultimately run out 3-1 winners, priced at 15/2, is our final pick.
