It’s FA Cup third round time. Once, this was a weekend full of giant killings, but the stats no longer back that up. In 2024, 72% of favourites won over 90 minutes and last year, 63% succeeded across 19 home wins from 32 ties. This round may not be great for outsiders anymore, but opportunity still knocks for us.
The stats now heavily favour market leaders, but that doesn’t mean we can’t pick out a value bet. This is about siding with the least vulnerable favourites. In fact, a number of clubs involved here have a week-long gap between this round and their next games, which leads to the potential for them to field strong teams.
Our digging around led us to this magnificent seven, priced best of all by Coral, one of the top football betting sites, at a cool 9.96/1.
| Game | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham v Leicester | Leicester to win | 3/5 |
| Macclesfield v Crystal Palace | Crystal Palace to win | 1/4 |
| Doncaster v Southampton | Southampton to win | 5/6 |
| Ipswich v Blackpool | Ipswich to win | 3/10 |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford | Brentford to win | 2/7 |
| Grimsby v West Super Mare | Grimsby to win | 1/4 |
| Charlton v Chelsea | Chelsea to win | 4/9 |
| Total Odds | 9.96/1 |
*Odds correct at 09:45 on 01/09/2026. Odds subject to change.
Bet 1 – Leicester to Beat Cheltenham
There’s a hint of regression about Cheltenham Town. After three years in League One, they were relegated in 2024 and finished 15th in League Two a year later. Now, they sit 18th in that division ahead of their clash with Championship side Leicester.
The Foxes haven’t been brilliant, but they won last time out against West Brom, and haven’t failed to score in any of their last nine games.
Key fact: Cheltenham have scored just 1.07 goals per game at home in League Two this season. Leicester are going at 1.38 goals per game away in the Championship.
Bet 2 – Crystal Palace to Beat Macclesfield
Palace are the current FA Cup holders, though they’ve now gone eight games without a win. In that sequence, in fairness, they’ve drawn with Fulham and Villa, as well as over 90 minutes at Arsenal in the Carabao Cup. They won’t want to relinquish their title this early.
The Silkmen love a star name. Former manager Robbie Savage was replaced in the summer by John Rooney, brother of Wayne, but it looks like this is where their time on the big stage will end.
Key fact: Palace’s last two visits to lower league opposition led to a 2-0 win at Doncaster and a 2-1 success at QPR. As a reminder, Macclesfield play in the National League North, the sixth tier of English football.
Bet 3 – Southampton to Beat Doncaster
Doncaster have collected only a single point from their last six League One games, though of course they will be bang up for this occasion. The Saints can only better that by two points from six in the Championship, but until their 4-0 mauling at promotion-chasing Middlesbrough, they’d scored in every single away match this season.
Key fact: Doncaster have scored 14 goals in 12 home league games compared to Southampton’s 21 in 14 on the road. The Saints’ achievement came at a higher level.
Bet 4 – Ipswich to Beat Blackpool
Both of these clubs have won the FA Cup, though neither are likely to do so this season. Ipswich now sit eight points off the Championship top spot and are on the charge. On Saturday, they face a Blackpool team with a goal difference of -8 away from home in League One.
Key fact: With nine days since their last game due to a postponement, and seven more until their next, promotion-chasing Ipswich can afford to field a full-strength team to maintain their momentum.
Bet 5 – Brentford to Beat Sheffield Wednesday
You have to feel for Sheffield Wednesday fans, unless you’re a Blade, of course. League One awaits the beleaguered Owls and now they have to play host to a Premier League team bang in form. Continuing a theme that could be crucial this weekend, the Bees don’t have a midweek game coming up and don’t need to rotate heavily.
Key fact: Wednesday have zero wins, and only eight goals, in the 15 games played over 90 minutes at their own ground this season.
Bet 6 – Grimsby to Beat Weston Super Mare
After a bad run of form in League Two, Grimsby Town have now won twice in succession and kept three clean sheets in a row. On Saturday, they welcome National League South side Weston Super Mare to Blundell Park. It’s great to see teams like this in the third round of the cup, but it’s unlikely that they can go any further.
Key fact: Grimsby may not be a huge club, but they play two levels above Saturday’s opposition and have already knocked Manchester United out of the Carabao Cup this term.
Bet 7 – Chelsea to Beat Charlton
Liam Rosenior’s tenure at Chelsea begins on Saturday evening at The Valley as they look to avoid two away defeats in a row following their reverse at Fulham. That came in the wake of Marc Cucurella’s early sending off, and without it, we feel they would have had enough to win at Craven Cottage.
Charlton play their football in the Championship, sitting 19th at the moment on a run of no wins in their last four games. This looks like a good opportunity for the Blues to progress.
Key fact: Chelsea’s away record in cup competitions (excluding the Champions League) over the last two seasons reads eight wins out of nine. They’ve scored 24 goals in that time, conceding eight. They have a famously large squad, and this situation is where it comes in handy.
