With the World Cup qualifiers done and dusted, the group stages are locked in. Scottish, Welsh, and Irish tears have barely dried, but I figured, what better time to see if there’s any early value in the World Cup group stage betting markets? Turns out, there is.
TL;DR – My Picks for the World Cup Group Stage Betting
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea to win Group A | BetVictor | 4/1 | 1 |
| Switzerland to win Group B | BetVictor | 1/1 | 2 |
| Turkiye to win Group D | BetVictor | 9/4 | 1 |
| Spain-Uruguay Forecast | bet365 | 4/5 | 2 |
| Acca | bet365 | 39/1 | 1 |
*All odds on this page are correct at 10:00 GMT on 02/04/2025. Odds subject to change.
How the points weighting works
I've added a points-scoring system that works almost like a confidence rating for each bet. Points are based on YOUR standard stake:
– 1 Point = Your standard stake (What you would normally bet here)
– 1.5 Points = Your usual stake plus half.
– 2 Points = Double your usual stake
– 0.5 Point = Half your usual stake.
Group L – England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| England | 2/7 |
| Croatia | 7/2 |
| Ghana | 10/1 |
| Panama | 50/1 |
After enduring 180 minutes of predictable mediocrity over the last week or so, I can’t say that I’m all that excited about backing England at 2/7 to win Group L. We seem to have gone from an abundance of quality in the final third – particularly in the No.10 role – to being as effective as Tottenham’s managerial recruitment process in a matter of months.
Tuchel needs to work out a way to play – and score – without Harry Kane in the team, as Dominic Solanke, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Phil Foden, and, at times, Anthony Gordon have each flattered to deceive in the two recent friendlies. God forbid Kane gets injured or is missing once the World Cup kicks off properly. *Shudders*
Honestly, I don’t love this group for value, and I’m going to swerve it. If I had to stick my neck out, I’d opt for Ghana to qualify at 8/15. However, they failed to qualify for AFCON 2025, which is deeply concerning, and have lost their last four friendlies. I’d take the bet, given that Panama is by far the weakest team in the group, and the top three could be enough to progress.
Group A – Mexico, Czechia, South Korea, South Africa
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Mexico | 1/1 |
| Czechia | 9/4 |
| South Korea | 4/1 |
| South Africa | 12/1 |
Does Mexico really win Group A 50% of the time? I’m not sure they do, and I’m always wary of backing hosts in the World Cup, as often the pressure can get too much. It looks like a short price for a team that’s no better than “solid”.
Czechia are a tricky one to call as well. They have a couple of really good players, like West Ham’s Tomas Soucek, Bayern Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick and Lyon’s Pavel Sulc, to name a few. I don’t hate odds of 9/4 for them to win the group, but the fact they’ve been forced to go the distance in both their knockout games has alarm bells ringing.
Incredibly, this is their 11th consecutive World Cup finals. They’ve got a great spine in Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae, Lee Kang-in and Hwang Hee-chan and are ranked 22nd in the world right now.
Out of the “big 3” in this group, this is a value bet I can get on board with and the first selection to hit my betslip.
Group B – Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Qatar
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1/1 |
| Canada | 5/2 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 13/5 |
| Qatar | 33/1 |
Group B and another home nation with an over-inflated price to qualify. This time, in the form of Canada. Are they better than Switzerland? No. Are they better than Bosnia-Herzegovina? No. Are they better than Qatar? Yes. But then, most are.
I’m really liking the look of Switzerland here. They’ve lost just once since November 2024 and have a great balance in the squad. Ruben Vargas is a brilliant midfielder, cashing in with four goals and assists through World Cup qualifying, then up top, they seem to have found a way to get Nottingham Forest’s Dan Ndoye firing, something that the Tricky Trees have failed to do since his move last summer from Bologna.
Group C – Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Brazil | 1/6 |
| Morocco | 6/1 |
| Scotland | 12/1 |
| Haiti | 100/1 |
There’s not a scenario I can come up with in Group C where Brazil don’t win it, and comfortably at that. Too much talent in the team and the opposition's lack of quality suggest that Brazil at 1/6 is the play. But, for me, those odds have no interest, and without wasting too much more of your time, let’s keep these World Cup group betting predictions moving, shall we?
Group D – USA, Turkiye, Paraguay, Australia
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| USA | 11/8 |
| Turkiye | 9/4 |
| Paraguay | 15/4 |
| Australia | 7/1 |
Group D is low-key one of the most exciting this year. It won’t get a ton of fuss, but just look how competitive it is. There are just 24 ranking places separating the top three teams, and while you can take FIFA rankings with a pinch of salt, I think this group is wide open.
My initial thought was to see what price the USA were to not qualify. It’s possible that third position won’t make the grade (4 from 12 third-place nations won’t make it), and it’s not crazy to suggest that all three of the hosts' opponents would beat them. Over the last 12 months, they’ve lost to Portugal, Belgium, South Korea, Mexico, Switzerland, Turkiye, Canada and even Panama (!). You’re braver than I am if you’re taking them to win at 11/8, and if it wasn’t for the fact that they could scrape through in third, 5/1 for the USA to not qualify would be a tasty-looking bet.
However, I’m risk-averse when it comes to these group stage bets, and instead,
They were clinical in the two knockout games against Kosovo and Romania and have been on a strong upward trajectory since Euro 2024. The Guardian dubbed them “Europe’s fastest-rising side”, and it’s tough to argue with that. Odds of 9/4 for Turkiye to win Group D is a great World Cup offer and the next selection to hit my slip.
Group E – Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Germany | 2/7 |
| Ecuador | 4/1 |
| Ivory Coast | 7/1 |
| Curacao | 100/1 |
Curacao’s involvement in Group E virtually kills anything exciting here. Germany will win it, and the other two will, at worst, pick up a win against the smallest nation in the competition. Not much more to add here, so let’s move on.
Group F – Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | 8/11 |
| Japan | 7/2 |
| Sweden | 9/2 |
| Tunisia | 7/1 |
I’ve spent the last half an hour going back and forth over where the value lies in Group F. The Netherlands are rightly priced as favourites to win, but I don’t love odds of 8/11 at all.
On their day, Japan, Sweden and even Tunisia could all get a result against the Netherlands, which is why I’m swerving them and Group F in general.
That said, if I were going to have a punt here, Japan is the value play at 7/2. And it’s not just because they beat old blighty on Tuesday night. They’ve actually got an incredible World Cup record, reaching the last 16 in three of the last four tournaments, beating both Spain and Germany in Qatar 2022. I loved their work effort, how organised they were and even the quality in the final third against England. Very impressive.
If you want to take them on, then godspeed to you, brother, but there are too many what-ifs for me to get involved here.
Group G – Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Belgium | 4/11 |
| Egypt | 9/2 |
| Iran | 6/1 |
| New Zealand | 20/1 |
Belgium are so similar to the Netherlands for me: they have a lot of talent on the pitch, but they often fail to live up to the hype. Yes, they will have the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Romelu Lukaku at their disposal, but I’m just not feeling the 4/11 odds on offer for them to win Group G.
I can’t see a route through this group for New Zealand, which means that Belgium, Egypt and Iran are all but locked in those top three spots. Therefore, betting on the to qualify market where each of these teams are short odds on, again, isn’t that enticing.
It could be a close-run group here, but for betting purposes, I just can’t see where the value is.
Group H – Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain | 1/5 |
| Uruguay | 4/1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 16/1 |
| Cape Verde | 50/1 |
Group H looks like one of four groups where only two teams progress. Spain and Uruguay are head and shoulders above both Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. There could be some messy scorelines in here as a result.
I don’t think I’m overstretching here to say that Spain should comfortably top this group. In fact, they have all the attributes to win their second World Cup, given the quality of the squad. From a pure football fanboy point of view, I can’t wait to see how the likes of Pedri and Lamine Yamal go on the biggest stage. Future superstars, if not already.
Both will overpower the two other sides in the group, and Spain should have more than enough to beat the South Americans in their head-to-head.
Group J – Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Argentina | 1/3 |
| Austria | 9/2 |
| Algeria | 11/2 |
| Jordan | 40/1 |
Argentina will be too strong in Group J. There are zero scenarios I can see where they don’t finish top of the group.
The other problem I have from a value perspective is that there’s not much between Austria and Algeria. It makes the forecast market tough to call, and I’d be flipping a coin to decide who to go with. Another group to avoid.
Group K – Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
| Team | Group Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 2/5 |
| Colombia | 11/4 |
| DR Congo | 8/1 |
| Uzbekistan | 40/1 |
The two standouts here are Portugal and Colombia. Portugal should have enough to get the job done, especially with the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leo, Vitinha and Joao Felix, to name just a few.
Again, Colombia have good depth as well, and are way clear of both DR Congo and Uzbekistan. So, to round off my picks for the group stages, I’ve gone for another forecast, this time Portugal-Colombia priced at 4/5.
I can’t see a scenario where these two teams aren’t at the top of the table, and I don’t love taking on bets that are as short as 2/5, because where’s the fun in that? Unfortuantely, as I went to place the bet, the Group K forecast market disappeared from bet365. I've left it out of my acca, but if you want to include it in yours when it goes back live, it'll boost it up to 72/1.
My 39/1 Acca is Live
And that's a wrap. My 4-fold acca for the World Cup group stages is live and paying a cool 39/1. Check it out below:
No Expiry Date
