Leeds United host relegated Burnley on Friday night and I’m starting my weekend wagers with a great 10/3 bet builder. Daniel Farke’s side have reached 40 points, the usual benchmark for safety. However, many pundits are speculating whether that will be enough this season, meaning that the Yorkshire side will be pulling out all the stops to get a win.
TL;DR – Leeds vs Burnley Bet Builder Tips: 3 Value Bets Make a Great Value Treble
No Expiry Date
| Market | Odds at Parimatch | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43/40 | 0.5 |
| Under 4.5 Cards | 1/5 | 1 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 5/8 | 1 |
| Bet Builder | 10/3 | 1 |
Odds correct at 11:20 on 29th April 2026. Odds subject to change.
No disrespect, but I’m not expecting a Friday night feast of football to rival Tuesday evening’s epic in Paris. The nine-goal thriller between PSG and Bayern Munich was of the highest quality, though my enjoyment was somewhat blunted by my bet builder failing to land due to the corner count.
However, I anticipate an interesting and competitive spectacle at Elland Road, despite Leeds being on 40 points and the visitors’ demotion being confirmed. The form of Nottingham Forest and West Ham, plus the possibility of Spurs getting their act together in the last four matches, means that there is serious discussion over whether 40 points will be enough.
Leeds will want to rubber-stamp survival as quickly as possible and will see this as an opportunity. Burnley on the other hand will have been resigned to relegation for weeks, but there is pride to play for. The reverse fixture resulted in a 2-0 win for the Clarets and, looking at the Kickform stats, I am expecting a close game where neither team will want to give too much away. There was no real value in the 1X2 markets. The odds on Leeds are short and I have no confidence in Burnley having enough to get a result. So, for my Parimatch bet builder I have focused on three value bets based on hard data.
Under 2.5 Goals
A goal fest here would be a surprise. Before we get into the stats, I feel that Burnley will want to keep things tight and that Leeds will look to attack, but with a degree of caution. Kickform give a 61% chance of less than three goals. Leeds have scored an average of 1.29 goals per game this season, with Burnley averaging exactly a goal a game. Three of Leeds’ last four home games in the league have seen less than three goals, and four of Burney’s last six games have seen under 2.5 goals.
Kickform have the most likely results as 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. I think that there will be less than three goals in this one.
Under 4.5 Cards
Despite being at the wrong end of the table neither side collect too many cards. Leeds average 1.59 cards per match while Burnley average 1.74. Only 29% of Leeds matches and 18% of Burnley’s have seen more than 4.5 cards given. I don’t think the referee will be reaching for his pocket too often on Friday evening.
Under 10.5 Corners
Looking at the corner stats, neither team wins a great deal of corners. Leeds have won an average of 4.41 corners per game while Burnley have averaged 3.71. Only 38% of each team’s fixtures have seen over 10.5 corners. I am expecting a single-figure flag kick count.
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