Reacting quickly to dropping odds is a great way to find some extra value in your betting. We will bring you a run down on how to be aware of odds shifts, how to incorporate these movements into your betting strategy, and the best websites at for monitoring the UK markets providing dropping odds. Read on to discover how to capitalise when the bookies react slowly to odds shifts.
What Are Dropping Odds & Why They Matter
Dropping odds come about when the chances of an outcome shift rapidly over a short interval of time. These changes in odds occur for several reasons, including injuries and team news. Additionally, if a bookie finds that a large number of bets are being placed on a particular outcome, you’ll often see the odds dropping as they look to limit their liability on the popular selection.
For example, in the 1X2 market, the bookmakers could be predicting a straightforward win for Chelsea at home to Brentford. The odds for Chelsea are 1.70, a draw 3.75, and an away win 4.33. However, in midweek, Chelsea suffers a heavy defeat in Europe, which results in Cole Palmer picking up an injury that rules him out for two weeks. This could see Brentford’s odds to win drop rapidly.
The new odds could be 2.00, 3.60 and 3.50. If you react to this quicker than the bookies, you could end up with better odds. Likewise, you could get a similar odds drop if a lot of punters were backing Brentford for an away win. By staying alert to these shifts and by tracking the fluctuations in odds, you can develop a dropping odds strategy to work in conjunction with your general betting research.
Best Sites for Tracking Dropping Odds
We have profiled the best dropping odds websites for the UK market. All of these sites have their merits, so it is vitally important that you choose the one that suits your betting style and provides the type of information you need.
Oddspedia
Oddspedia boast a great dropping odds feature. They state that they track the odds movements on markets from all bookmakers, allowing users to find trends and put them to good use. Dropping odds are shown as percentages, making it straightforward to find value with any bookie who has not picked up on the latest trend or market shift.
The platform is a great, all-round iGaming website, providing quality information on sports betting. It provides fast odds updates, enabling you to compare odds yourself with up-to-date info. The site also offers tips for a range of sports, plus livestreaming, breaking news and live scores.
Odd Alerts
Odd Alerts allows you to create alerts for dropping odds in selected markets. Again, the percentage change in odds is shown. While the site is free to access, some of the features are only available in the Pro section, which requires a subscription. You can sign up for £8.99 per week, £19.99 per month, the quarterly rate is £44.99, six months is £89.99, and a year is £179.99.
With the pro section, you can filter by bookmaker and track or compare odds shifts. This will enable you to jump on opportunities that present themselves and maximise value.
In addition, the site allows you to set a range of alerts for football matches, with real time notifications for each selected match.
A practical example: if you had wagered on a first-half goal, you could set an alert for no goals up to 35 minutes, giving you the chance to cash out or to make another wager to cover your position. You can create in-play match alerts with tailored filters, ensuring you receive notifications when matches meet specified criteria. While the site is free to access, some of the features are behind a paywall in the Pro section.
Betshoot
You want a site that provides football dropping odds, basketball dropping odds, tennis dropping odds and ice hockey dropping odds in one easy to use platform? Well, Betshoot could be the place for you. For football betting odds, the dropping odds tracker tool notifies you of all live changes and price drops for all matches that are available for betting. You can compare the starting price with the current price, which can help you weigh up your picks.
Other Betshoot features include betting tips and predictions, such as ones submitted from the community, for which you can sign up and contribute. However, to unlock all the site's features, you will need a premium membership account that comes at a price, with monthly fees of £20 premium and £8 lite.
OddsSafari
While OddsSafari principally offer a dropping odds feature for soccer, tennis and basketball, there are other sports available, including volleyball and boxing. The feature is presented in an easy-to-understand format with the original odds, the current odds, the percentage change and the bookmaker with the best current price all available. The calculation of the drop is done by using an average of all the bookies.
While this is a free to use site, there is no option to set any alerts. The site also shows coupons and can focus in on different markets, such as Over/Under.
BTFOdds
Dropping odds can be found in the odds trend section at BTFOdds. The odds automatically refresh every 30 seconds so that you have accurate info on which to act.
The platform covers a range of sports beyond football, including tennis, hockey, basketball, baseball, and American football. As well as dropping odds, there is odds comparison, surebets, arbitrage, tips, and predictions. Once again, to unlock the full features, you are required to pay a subscription. You are looking at €39 per month or a six-month plan broken down into €30 payments or a year with 12 €25 payments.
Applying Your Dropping Odds Strategy
A dropping odds strategy involves placing bets on outcomes where odds have recently shortened. The thinking behind this strategy is to act quickly and make the most on any new information which affects the bets by wagering before all of the bookmakers are able to react.
Sharp drops in odds, often in the range pf 10%-30% often occur when there have been large and/or multiple bets, often from professional or syndicate bettors. Fast dropping odds like this can suggest that the bet is seen as good value by smart gamblers who research extensively. Another reason is when there is breaking news involving injuries or team selections. The bookies will try to adjust to this quickly, however, you need to look carefully at the situation to ensure that there has not been an overreaction.
While it is important to act quickly, it is vital to work out when to bet early or late on dropping odds. When you have done your research and see odds dropping as a result of incoming team news, you may want to get in quick to secure the better odds. If the book has opened in the last three hours and the odds start to shift rapidly, this is another time to act fast as the bookies may have made an error with the initial odds, so you could get great value by getting in before they react. Sometimes, it's better to hang on and wait. You may want to confirm whether the odds drop is based on fact, or whether it is simply a spike. You may want to wait until team news is confirmed or, when betting on exchanges, you might want to lay the overvalued selection.
False signals to be aware of include odds drops on popular teams, such as England at the World Cup, where the shift is caused by public bias and blind hope rather than sharp money. The same can be applied to market overreactions to late team news. Drops that occur with only one bookie are a red flag. This could well be a mistake. Drops which happen outside regular trading times need to be looked at carefully as this could be trading bots shifting odds rather than real info.
You need to look closely as to whether reacting to dropping odds is still giving you value for money. Look at the odds overround and implied probability to work this out.
Overall, it is best to use an odds dropping strategy alongside your own research on markets, sports, and leagues that you know well, along with other betting strategies. If you combine sharp drops with your own research, then you could find an edge that makes your betting more profitable.
Sport-Specific Use Cases
Betting strategies can vary between sports. We will now look at how different factors can affect different sports with a dropping odds strategy.
Football generates a lot of interest and debate in the UK due to its high-profile status. Because of this, and the wall-to-wall coverage, team news and injury rumours can build very quickly. Football dropping odds can cause this; therefore, it is important to look at things closely and put any major shifts into perspective when following dropping odds predictions.
There are several factors that affect dropping odds for tennis. The schedule at tennis tournaments can be relentless, with players often getting less than 48 hours rest between matches. If a player is involved in a five-set match and then has to play again after a quick turnaround, odds can quickly drop, especially if there has been delays for the weather. If players look to be carrying injuries, this can affect things too.
Ice hockey dropping odds can come about in a similar way to football. Injuries and team changes are all factors that can lead to odds changing. The regular season in the NHL sees each team play 82 games. This, naturally can lead to more injuries and, depending on travel, teams can sometimes underperform due to fatigue and scheduling, which is another variable to consider when looking at dropping odds predictions.
How to Read Dropping Odds Percentages
A dropping odds percentage shows how much the odds have shortened over a specific period. It is a percentage change from the opening odds to the current odds. The larger the percentage drop the more significant the signal is likely to be. If the drop is 10% to 25% or more then it often means that sharp money is coming in or that there has been some important team news released. If you have done your research, it is possibly worth acting on.
A drop of 5%-10% indicates a potential signal, but it is probably wiser to wait to see what develops, unless your research is suggesting otherwise. A 4% or less drop is not likely to be significant and could be considered normal movement. Check out the odds with our betting odds calculator and check out the overround and implied probability to see if the odds were good value in the first place and whether that is still the case.
The Punterspage Final Say
It is useful for all bettors to understand dropping odds. You can find increased value through reacting to dropping odds and getting in there before the bookies adjust. However, it can be argued that a dropping odds strategy should be used alongside other betting strategies and data-based research in order to find an edge, rather than basing your wagering method on it. Check out the best dropping odds websites that we have recommended and study our guide and apply this to your betting strategy.
Dropping Odds Sites & Strategies FAQs
Dropping odds are where the odds for a particular outcome decrease over a period of time.
Dropping odds indicate that an outcome has become more likely to happen. Odds often drop as a result of large and/or multiple bets being placed on an outcome.
You can use dropping odds to get better value before the bookies react. You can track odds with sites such as Oddspedia and Odd Alerts where you are able to get notifications when odds drop and you can compare different bookmakers' odds. Try to use dropping odds strategies alongside your research and other betting systems.
Predicting dropping odds is not easy, but you can pick up on these trends by studying team news, looking at the form of teams and by using websites with dropping odds tools. You will learn to spot trends and shifts early and hopefully you will be able to use dropping odds to find extra value.