We’ve already seen some big casualties in the Round of 32. Both Germany and the Netherlands have fallen by the wayside, and the question is now, who’s next? On paper, the Spanish are deserved favourites here, but this is a tricky Austrian side who looked competitive in the group stages. Could another upset be on the cards? Let’s take a look, shall we?
TL; DR – My 7.34/1 Spain vs Austria Betting Tips
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Ratings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | Betfred | 4/11 | 4 |
| Xaver Schlager 2+ Fouls | Betfred | 4/11 | 2 |
| Lamine Yamal to score | Betfred | 23/20 | 1 |
| Spain over 5.5 corners | Betfred | 8/13 | 2 |
| Bet builder | Betfred | 7.34/1 | 1 |
*Odds correct at 11:30 BST on 30/06/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Under 3.5 Goals
This isn’t your typical Spanish team. When I think of the World Cup-winning side of 2010, they had so much attacking talent. Xavi, Iniesta, David Villa, David Silva, Pedro, Cesc Fàbregas, Juan Mata. The list goes on.
The fact that they have Mikel Oyarzabal leading the line in 2026 says a lot. I mean no disrespect to that, but aside from Lamine Yamal, you look through that attacking threat, and there’s not a lot that jumps out.
It’s a big reason they failed to score against Cabo Verde and just scraped past 10-man Uruguay 1-0.
That’s not to say their more pragmatic approach won’t be effective, but it does curb the desire to target high-scoring games.
As a result, I’ve kicked off with a rather conservative under 3.5 goal line. I’m getting World Cup odds of 4/11 here, and while that’s not an exciting market on its own, it works well for my wider bet builder to get the ball rolling.
Bet 2: Xaver Schlager 2+ Fouls
I’ve been weighing up whether to target Austria’s Xaver Schlager or Spain’s Alex Baena for the fouls market, both of whom are what I’d describe as persistent.
The Austrian has just got the nod, and it’s mainly because I’m not sure if Baena will start and if he does, how many minutes he will get. Purely from a playing-it-safe perspective, Schlager is the play.
If you’re not familiar with this guy, then he’s basically the Austrian Roy Keane. Flirts between the six and eight role and will likely double pivot with Nicolas Seiwald.
His main job on Thursday will be to provide cover in front of the backline. He’s going to get to know both Rodri and Pedri very well over the course of the 90 minutes, which should boost his fouls stats, and given that Pedri has already drawn three fouls so far, this looks like a good match-up.
Bet 3: Lamine Yamal to Score
Ok, it’s time to take the shackles off this Spain vs Austria bet builder and get odds that are somewhat more appealing.
Lamine Yamal is my next victim. He’s had a good, not great, start to the tournament, with one goal so far. Given the likes of Messi, Ronaldo, Kane, Mbappe, etc. are all hitting their hype, I’m going to guess that Yamal will want a piece of the limelight.
While his output has been decent, his metrics have actually been really good. He’s averaging 5.1 shots per 90 and, at times, has looked the threat we know he can be.
He’s 23/20 with some of the best World Cup betting sites to grab a goal against Austria on Thursday, and I’m liking those odds. Bet number three goes in the bag.
Bet 4: Spain Over 5.5 Corners
Spain have had 23 corners in their opening three group games. That’s 7.7 per game. They’ve also conceded only in that time, which is a good indicator of how they’ve dominated without being able to finish teams off – Saudi Arabia apart.
What’s key to note about this game is that Austria won’t retreat and play a low block like both Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia did. Ralf Rangnick has his side set up to play a ball-oriented, high-energy press.
How successful this will be against a team as technically gifted as Spain remains to be seen.
There will be times when they need to sit deep and defend. These scenarios will lead to corners, so I’m still happy to take this market on.
Instead of team corners, I like targeting Spain directly. Over 5.5 is another conservative line given their averages so far, but I don’t mind that at all. In fact, as you add more selections to a bet builder, that caution should increase.
Spain to have over 5.5 corners at 8/13 is my fourth and final pick.
