Jumeirah Emirates Estate, or more specifically, the Earth Course, plays host to the final event of the season – the DP World Tour Championship. There’s a cool £8 million in prize money up for grabs with 50 of the best players on the European Tour all looking for a Christmas bonus before the end of the year.
Rory McIlroy has a commanding lead in the Race to Dubai as he goes in search of a seventh title, surpassing the great Seve Ballesteros (6) and in hot pursuit of Colin Montgomerie’s long-standing record of eight.
Our focus shifts to the DP World Tour Championship outright and betting tips for who we think will go well this week. It’s a stacked field, but the question that’s on everyone’s lips is, can anyone stop the Northern Irish juggernaut on a course he’s already conquered three times?
Latest DP World Tour Championship Predictions and Tips
We’ve found value in three picks this week, including the outright winner, the top Swede and a top 10 finish. Odds have been compared across the best golf betting sites, and you can check them out below.
| Market | Player | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Win | Tommy Fleetwood | 15/2 (Boosted Odds) | bet365 |
| Top Swedish Player | Alex Noren | 17/10 | Unibet |
| Top 10 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 5/4 | Bet365 |
*Odds correct at 11:00 GMT on 12/11/2025. Odds subject to change.
Bet 1: Tommy Fleetwood to Win – 15/2 bet365
Let’s address the elephant in the room. If you’ve come here for a reason to back McIlroy at 15/4, then you’re going to be disappointed. He’s obviously got a great chance this week on a course he loves, but 15/4. That’s prime-Tiger territory, and if it wasn’t for a career-low European Tour final round of 62 last week at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he probably wouldn’t have been in the mix.
But one guy that was in the mix, and only lost out via a play-off with Aaron Rai, was the discerning housewives' favourite, Tommy Fleetwood. Southport’s finest export since potted shrimp has been imperious this season. A first win on the PGA Tour in their own Tour Championship has capped a fine year for the current world number four.
He took that form to the Ryder Cup, helping Europe win on foreign soil for only the fourth time, before winning the DP World India Championship in October and finishing second last week in Abu Dhabi. Fleetwood has improved in just about every metric this season, but most notably putting, gaining 1.75 strokes per round on the PGA Tour, up from 0.04 in 2024 and a jump from 92nd to 9th overall. And boy, is it paying off.
Prediction: Odds of 15/2 look a big price to finish the season off with a bang.
No Expiry Date
Bet 2: Top Swedish Player: Alex Noren – 17/10 Unibet
There are three battling it out for top Swede this week – Alex Noren, Ludvig Aberg and Joakim Lagergren. Aberg is a short favourite to win the market at 3/4, but it looks a little skinny, and instead, we’re opting for Alex Noren to win this at 17/10. And here’s why.
The Abu Dhabi HSBC last week was Aberg’s first outing since the Ryder Cup, and it showed. He lost 0.25 strokes putting and 0.34 strokes around the green. Short game sharpness was amiss, which is understandable given it was his first competitive round in six weeks. It will be his first time at the DP World Tour Championship, so it’s a leap into the unknown as to where his game really is right now.
Noren has had an up-and-down season. Two wins (British Masters and BMW PGA Championship), two top 10s and five missed cuts in 16 events. But the plucky Swede loves it around the Earth Course. He was second here the last time he played in 2022 and T9 the season before. He’s one of the best putters on tour, and even though the Earth Course is a beast at 7,706 yards, it’s pretty narrow, which suits his shorter, but more accurate tee shots, with a red-hot flat stick that comes into its own on the greens.
Prediction: Noren is the form Swede right now, and 17/10 is a big price.
Bet 3: Nicolai Hojgaard to Finish Top 10 – 5/4 bet365
No player has gained more strokes at the DP World Tour Championship over the last five years than Nicolai Hojgaard. The Dane is up 2.55 strokes on the field in that time, bettering the likes of McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Reed, Rose, Hatton and our pick for this week, Fleetwood.
His only two appearances here have yielded a T4 in 2021 and his breakout career win in 2023 (bettering none other than Tommy Fleetwood). He had an eagle putt on 18 last week at the HSBC to get into a play-off, but burned the edge and missed out by a single stroke. He loves the course, is in decent form, and he’s well priced at 5/4 to make the top 10 in a 50-man field.
Prediction: Nicolai Hojgaard to finish in the top 10 at 5/4 is packed with value.
