It’s the final round of the PGA Tour season as the show rolls into East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship. With 30 of the world’s best on show, it’s about as tough a field to pick as you will get, but as ever, I’ve been hard at work to see where the value lies this week. Strap in and let’s get started.
TL; DR – My Three Tour Championship Betting Predictions
| Bet | Odds | Bookie | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| McIlroy to win without Scheffler | 7/1 | Betfred | 1 |
| Winning score – over 261.5 | 21/20 | Betfred | 3 |
| Clark to beat Aberg – 72 holes | 20/21 | William Hill | 2 |
*Odds correct at 08:00 BST on 26/08/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Rory McIlroy to Win – Without Scottie Scheffler
The fact that Scottie Scheffler tees off this week at 16/5 to win shows just how dominant the Texan has been over the last few years. Granted, he’s been shorter prices than this, but usually in smaller events, not when the other 29 competitors are the best players in the world.
There’s an argument to be had that, even at 16/5, Scheffler is still value. But there are too many variables here, and it’s not a price I will be taking this week.
An interesting market is the betting without Scheffler. Most would agree that Rory McIlroy is still a worthy second in the world rankings and on his day is as good as, if not better than, Scottie. He is, however, nowhere near as consistent, hence the substantial jump in rankings.
Rory played beautifully for much of the BMW Championship, before running out of steam in his pursuit of eventual winner, Wyndham Clark. He was rusty at best at the St. Jude Championship, finishing 66th, but showed his class for much of last week. And let’s not forget, he’s won the Tour Championship three times previously, so he knows his way around East Lake, that’s for sure.
We’re getting 7/1 from the best betting sites for Rory to win in the without-Scheffler market. He’s only 17/2 with Scottie, so if you’re backing the Northern Irishman this week, it’s a no-brainer to take a little less juice for a lot less risk. PGA Tour Championship betting tip one: locked in.
Bet 2: Winning Score – Over 261.5
I had to double-check the market here when looking at the line for the winning score. Over 261.5 is priced at 21/20 and under 261/5 at 4/6. We don’t need Einstein to tell us here that the bookies think the under is the most likely score.
However, I’ve run the numbers and, only once in the last 10 years has the winning score been under 261.5 (Viktor Hovland – 2023). That’s simply bonkers that they’ve priced it like this, and I don’t need to know much more to realise that this is a huge value bet for the week.
If you think it’s a little skinny for a single, you could combine it with an outright to double your potential winnings, which is likely how I will play this as well.
Bet 3: Wyndham Clark to Beat Ludvig Aberg
My third and final bet for the week is from the 72-hole match bets. Now, don’t forget, there is no cut this week, so these boys will be slugging it out for the full four days. It doesn’t change too much in terms of how I approach these types of markets, but worth noting that you won’t get any early wins with a missed cut here.
I’m loving Betfred right now, as not only have they been incredibly generous with the winning scoreline, but we’re also getting 20/21 for last week’s winner, Wyndham Clark to beat Ludvig Aberg.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Ludvig. His swing and tempo are just sublime, and he’s going to win multiple majors; of that, I have no doubt.
But Clark is on fire right now. If he wins this week, he’s a lock for player of the year, in my opinion, following his US Open win, and what would be his fourth dub of the season.
Again, nothing against Aberg, and he’s in decent form himself, but for many, Clark is the man to beat this week, and it’s hard to disagree with that.
