Most of the top UK bookies have the Netherlands priced up as odds on favourites to win Group F at this summer’s World Cup.
At 5/6, I’m not convinced the juice is worth the squeeze with this current crop of Oranje, so I’ve looked for value elsewhere, and I think I’ve found a pretty Swede deal!
TL;DR – My Group F Bet: Japan-Sweden Straight-Forecast
| Bet | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Japan 1st, Sweden 2nd Straight-Forecast | 10/1 | Parimatch |
*Odds correct at 9:30 BST on 12/06/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Why I Can’t Back the Netherlands Here
Ronald Koeman’s side haven’t exactly had the best preparation for this summer’s soccer showpiece – losing 1-0 to Algeria and needing a 98th-minute penalty to scrape past Uzbekistan in a 2-1 victory that saw the Dutch reduced to 10-men.
Yes, they are friendlies, but the issues run deeper than a few dodgy warm-up matches.
Injuries
Matthijs de Ligt, Xavi Simons, Stefan de Vrij and Jerdy Schouten were all ruled out pre-tournament with Jurrien Timber fighting to feature, possibly in the latter stages of the tournament.
Also struggling with knocks are keeper Bart Verbruggen and Barca playmaker, Frenkie de Jong.
Star Quality?
Some of the Dutch star players come into this tournament in questionable form.
Captain Virgil van Dijk endured a tough and frustrating season for Liverpool with signs he may not be at his peak anymore, and at 34, could be his last chance to make a real impact at international level.
Memphis Depay has also struggled following a move to Corinthians that has seen him return just the one goal amidst an injury-laden season.
Cody Gakpo is another who will need to find a higher gear if the Oranje are to go deep. If he struggles, and with the absence of Xavi Simons, creativity could become an issue for Koeman.
The Opposition
It’s clear there are some red flags for the Netherlands as we head into the World Cup. This is made worse by the fact that their opponents seem to be hitting a bit of form at the right time.
Japan
Japan have been extremely impressive over the last 12 months, losing only to the Americans while recording wins over Brazil, England, Scotland, and Ghana, to name a few.
They are technically sharp, comfortable against high-profile teams, and as Jonathan pointed out in his Ante-Post Group Stage Betting Preview, have substantial tournament experience. They are no pushover by any means, and should they get off to a flyer in their opener against the Netherlands, will surely be odds on to go on and win the group.
Sweden
Managed by England’s Graham Potter, the Swedes come into the tournament knowing that a win against Tunisia in their opening game and a good result against either Japan or the Netherlands will likely see them through to the knockout stages.
Sweden meet the Oranje in their second match and will certainly look to frustrate what could by then be a nervy Dutch side. Should things go the way I think they will in this group, we could see a table with Japan on 6pts, Sweden on 4pts, the Netherlands on 1pt, and Tunisia on 0 heading into the third and final match.
Should this inevitably play out, Japan and Sweden would play each other in the final group stage match knowing that a draw would guarantee qualification for both sides – bad news for the Dutch.
Tunisia
I’m not going to sit here and suggest that Tunisia will be pulling up any trees at this tournament. They are odds on to finish bottom for a reason, and it’s probably the only thing I can agree on with the bookies here.
They’ve got a plucky draw in them on a good day but if I wasn’t backing the Japan-Sweden straight-forecast, I’d probably look to the World Cup odds of 4/1 for Tunisia to get 0 points as a potential alternative.
My 10/1 Bet on Japan-Sweden 1-2 Finish Is Live
So, there’s my case for why I think the Netherlands can genuinely finish third. This whole bet rests on that opening group game where anything other than a Dutch win could see us well and truly in business.
