This is Canada, an early round host (yeah, apparently it hasn’t all been in the USA), versus a team with ambitions to be the first World Cup winners from Africa. There’s literally an ocean between these two. I get the feeling there may be one in the figurative sense as well.
It’s Canada against Morocco, and my bets are now locked in for this fascinating last-16 clash in Houston.
Canada v Morocco World Cup Betting Tips: Back Moroccan Magic
| Market | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Morocco | 5/6 |
| Total Goals | Over 1.5 | 2/5 |
| Home Team Total Corners | Over 4.5 | 7/4 |
| Total Bet Builder Odds with Betfred | 5.07/1 |
Odds correct at 10:00 BST on 01/07/26. Odds subject to change.
When are we going to acknowledge that Morocco are simply a rock-solid international outfit? They reached the World Cup semi-finals in 2022, the AFCON final in January (awarded the win), and now, with one more push, they could be in the last eight of another World Cup.
The Atlas Lions, the world’s no.6 ranked team, are roaring. I’m backing Morocco in a 3-leg bet builder at more than 5/1, courtesy of one of our best football betting sites, Betfred. Have a sneaky look below to see why.
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Canada v Morocco: The Latest Odds
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Back Morocco to Win (90 minutes)
Looking at players in the top five leagues, Canada have nine to Morocco’s 14. Canada’s nine are largely bit part players, or those playing at lesser clubs. That figure also includes Sassuolo’s Ismail Kone, who is now out injured. Contrast that with Morocco’s players representing Roma, PSG, Man United, and Real Madrid, and you can see the quality difference. There’s no doubt Morocco are the better football team. Their tournament record also suggests that they don’t need a home crowd to keep them motivated.
I had a look at the possession each team has had so far, and that’s enlightening. I’ve taken out Canada’s game against Qatar, who were awful and had two men sent off, as well as Morocco’s easy win against Haiti.
Les Rouges managed to keep the ball for 61% of their opening game. That stat dropped to 45% against Switzerland, and 42% against South Africa. They’re trending downwards. Morocco’s possession stats have moved from 49% against Brazil, to 59% against Scotland, and 70% against the Netherlands.
These are two teams heading in opposite directions.
Back Over 1.5 Goals
I’m using the xG (expected goals) stats here to a degree. If you don’t create chances, you don’t score goals.
Morocco managed an xG of 1.37 against Brazil, and 1.38 in their recent match with the Netherlands. They are the world’s no.5 and no.7 ranked teams. That’s way better opposition than Canada. We also have trajectory to factor in and, as discussed, Canada have already emptied the maple syrup bottle, while Morocco are only just filling up the tagine.
The stats alone aren’t amazing, granted, but Canada themselves have an xG of 1.42 per game even without the Qatar result. I reckon Morocco can take this, and I’m confident enough to think they won’t be needing a sneaky 1-0 win to do it, while Canada still have something to offer going forward.
I reckon this is a fair punt as the second of my Canada v Morocco betting tips.
Back Over 4.5 ‘Home’ Corners
This could be the one bright spark for Canada. Taking out the Qatar and Haiti games once again, the designated home side are averaging 6.67 corners per match, with Morocco conceding an average of 4.33. Canada’s problem has not been gaining territory and winning set pieces, it’s just finishing it all off against better defences that has been the issue.
Canada may struggle overall, but they clearly have a way of playing that leads to them getting corners. I can back them to continue that trend, without breaching what is clearly a solid Moroccan defence. World Cup odds of 7/4 look huge for this bet given the numbers.
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