Sir Keir Starmer is currently in the process of being raked over the Westminster coals following yet another calamitous scorecard, this time at the local elections. With 1500 local councillors losing their seats, it was Nigel Farage’s Reform UK that saw the biggest gains, with over 1400 newly elected officials getting over the line in their local races.
I’m here to take a look at the runners and riders for Starmer’s job and hopefully land on a bet that can carry us through this debacle, one way or the other.
Let’s dive in.
TL;DR – My UK Politics Betting Picks for May 2026
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage to become the next Prime Minister | Ladbrokes | 28/1 | 0.2 |
| Ed Miliband to be the next Labour Leader | Parimatch | 5/1 | 0.8 |
No Expiry Date
Keir Starmer’s Current Standing
The PM has been favoured to lose his job during 2026 for the entirety of 2026. In fact, you would have to go back to November 5th, 2025 to find a bookie that wasn’t listing the former CPS boss as odds-on to be gone this year (No, the irony of that date is not lost on me). With some bookies as short as ¼ for him to be gone before Christmas, it seems the writing is well and truly on the wall.
Possible Outcomes?
Well, there are technically three outcomes possible at this moment in time;
-
1.
Starmer Stays – No Change in Leadership
-
2.
Starmer Goes – A New Leader Appointed (becoming the Next PM)
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3.
Starmer Goes Rogue – Calls A Snap Election
The Farage Factor
As detailed above, my first bet is going to be on Nigel Farage to become the next Prime Minister at 28/1 with Ladbrokes. This is a hedge against Starmer throwing his toys out the pram and calling a snap election, but can also act as a buffer if Starmer somehow survives this leadership challenge. From this point on, and following Reform’s trajectory, finding odds of 25/1+ on Farage to be next PM is going to be tough. I doubt this bet will win, but will provide some much needed cover during a messy leadership showdown.
Labour Leader Contenders
Andy Burnham (100/30 with Betvictor @ 10:23 – 14/05/2026)
Andy Burnham is undoubtedly the current golden boy of the Labour Party. He has the support of the trade unions along with many red wall MPs. He is the current Mayor of Greater Manchester and was held back from running in the Gorton & Denton by-election by a panel that included the current PM. This has only helped his stock.
The issue Burnham has is obstacles. He would need to find a vacant seat or convince a current MP in a safe labour seat (if such thing exists) to resign so he can run in that by-election. He would then need to get into Parliament and begin the process of garnering support. It’s just too much to do in what appears to be a short space of time.
Angela Rayner (11/4 with bet365 @ 10:23 – 14/05/2026)
Surging this morning to the front of the pack is the former Deputy PM, Angela Rayner.
She would be Burnham lite, for me – a placeholder until they can sort out the Mayor’s situation. In the moments before publishing this article, it's being reported that Rayner has settled her issue with HMRC regarding the stamp duty paid on a flat purchased in Hove. I initially mentioned this as a potential blocker to her bid, but now with that seemingly out the way, the former deputy's chances of a successful run at the Prime Minister are on a better footing.
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Wes Streeting (11/2 with SpreadEx @ 10:23 – 14/05/2026)
Yesterday saw a flurry of activity towards Wes Streeting as talks of the Health Minister trying to rally support for a leadership bid did the rounds. The MP for Ilford North attended a meeting with Starmer that lasted just 16 minutes, sparking rumours that he may have resigned from his position or simply been told to jog on.
That sentiment appears to be on the drift, thankfully, as Streeting is one of the few MPs with the rare ability to make Starmer look positively electric by comparison.
Update: As of 13:00, 14/05/2026, Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary.
Ed Miliband (5/1 with Parimatch @ 10:23 – 14/05/2026)
I’ll admit, I’ve landed on Ed Miliband as my pick, not through overwhelming merit, but more through a process of elimination. To me, he feels like a custodial figure who could hold the government together temporarily, either while Andy Burnham finds a route back into Parliament or before Labour eventually hands the reins over to him after what many expect to be a difficult next election.
It’s low risk for Miliband as he’ll never get a better chance to be PM and it preserves Rayner as Burnham’s potential deputy in the future.
My 5/1 Bet on Ed Miliband to be the next Labour Party leader is Live
My bet is live with Parimatch. New customers at Parimatch can use £5 of the Welcome Bonus on Politics Betting, so well worth a look if you are new to this bookie. Play responsibly and keep it fun.
