The third Premier League spot is up for grabs, and the Championship playoffs are here to decide just that. The first legs of the semi-finals kick off this Thursday and Friday.
It’s the most lucrative final in the world, with a guarantee of at least £100 million for just playing in the Premier League for a season. The outright odds by bet365 look like this:
| Team | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | 9/5 | Spreadex |
| Sunderland | 3/1 | Betway |
| Coventry | 10/3 | bet365 |
| Bristol City | 9/2 | BetVictor |
Unsurprisingly, Sheffield are the favourites. They finished 3rd with a gargantuan 14-point gap, so the difference in quality is clear.
Bristol City vs Sheffield United
Sheffield ended the season in no man's land, 14 points ahead of 4th place, but 10 behind Burnley and Leeds. They’ve been solid and will back themselves to win the playoffs.
Bristol City were lucky to make it to the playoffs. Their draw to Preston on the final day meant that their fate was out of their hands, but Millwall and Blackburn both dropped points as well.
This season, Sheffield beat Bristol City 1-2 away but were held to a one-all draw at home. It will be a tight match, and the odds with bet365 reflect that:
Of course, Bristol has the home advantage, but Sheffield is the superior team. We’ve looked at a few interesting markets which could hold more value than a win bet.
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Bristol City and Sheffield United are averaging 5.4 and 5.6 corners per game. That’s 11, but we think that over 8.5 is a safer bet.
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Over 1.5 goals: It’s a low score for decent odds. We tend to see fewer goals in the first leg, so a goal apiece looks like a possibility.
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Sheffield is the better team and should dominate. 1.8 odds are excellent value since we are expecting Sheffield United to be better.
Coventry vs Sunderland
The playoff semifinal between the 4th and 5th place is always more exciting. It’s a close tie, although 7 points separated third-place Sunderland from Coventry.
Sunderland have been in 4th place since November. They’re a good side, but have featured in 4 Championship playoffs, and never won it. They’ve also lost all of their last 5 matches, which makes for a crazy form chart on our Championship stats.
Coventry have had a rollercoaster of a season. Nine games in, they went down to 22nd. By the end of November, sat in 17th, they appointed Frank Lampard as manager, and he’s been a revelation, steadily taking them into the playoffs.
This season's matches include a 2-2 draw in Sunderland and a 3-0 home win for Coventry. The last time Sunderland beat Coventry was in October 2000, and they’ve met 13 more times across three divisions. Coventry won 6 of those. Wild!
The bookies are backing Coventry to win at home, but Sunderland are still the favourite to qualify, priced at 7/10 with bet365.
We’ve looked into a few other markets to give you the most value from the match.
| Market at bet365 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Haji Wright: Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 11/25 |
| Corner Match Bet: Coventry | 83/100 |
| Wilson Isidor: Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 33/50 |
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Haji Wright has the third best average for shots on target per game in the division, hitting 27 in 21 games.
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Coventry have had the 3rd most corners in the division, with 272, averaging 5.9 per game. Sunderland is 8th, averaging 5.4 per match.
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Wilson Isidor has hit the third-most shots on target with 41 in 34 matches. His per-match average is 0.95, so still worth a punt on.