Man City’s missing key players, injuries and vulnerable defence have opened the door for Brighton to rise quickly up the odds ranks before Saturday’s Premier League game.
However, some bookies have been slow to adjust, as the odds are still relatively high for Brighton but have dropped consistently to 333/100 from 6/1 on some of the best online bookies.
Is there seriously a chance for Brighton to win this? That’s what the odds tell us!
City will have the home advantage but will still be missing key players in Rodri (obviously), Akanji, Stones, Bobb and Ake. Their talent is still there, but their defence has gaps, which have been picked up. In fact, a ‘both teams to score’ bet currently stands at 1/2 on bet365.
Brighton has won five, drawn two and only lost two matches against the big 6 – including a 2-1 win against City in the reverse.
If you were writing a David and Goliath story and needed a team to play David – Brighton would be a top-tier choice. Stats don’t lie, they’re Giant Killers.
Fabian Hürzeler’s team could improve on their greatest ever league finish (6th in 2023) and a win here could put them in fifth place with 10 games left to play.
Meanwhile, key absences and defensive vulnerabilities have marked this season as one of City’s worst, with a lacklustre title challenge, and tough Champions League draw ending their hopes early.
They’ll need to finish within the UCL spots to save their campaign and a win here in Saturday’s game is crucial.
Overall, Brighton has 4 wins in five, while City only had 2. True, The Citizens faced much harder opposition, but Brighton’s consistency and effort has led to a one-point difference.
Both are fighting for those tightly contested Champions League spots and the current outright odds for a top 5 finish, which will guarantee Champions League football, stand at 7/50 for City, and for 5/1 Brighton.
Value bets are key to backing Brighton. Bet365 have gone from 4/1 to 333/100 while bookies such as Unibet still have them at 37/10, for example.
Backing a draw is also a solution for sceptics. Brighton & Hove Albion have only lost 6 games all season, only bettered by Arsenal and Liverpool. A double chance on ‘Brighton or Draw’ is priced at 23/20 on bet365.
