The UEFA Nations League knockout stage is here. All three previous winners are in the semis, but Germany is the current favourite. Can they exercise their demons and finally stop underperforming? We think they can.
The fourth Nations League sees Germany join the three previous champions, Portugal, France, and Spain, and we’ve got a few markets with great value. Certainly, more value than watching England play Andorra.
Semi Final 1: Germany vs Portugal
This should be a cracker of a match, and we’ve got a few markets from bet365 to bet on separately or add to a bet builder. A winning bet builder will land you £70 from a £10 bet.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Full Time Result: Germany | 17/20 |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | 33/50 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 11/25 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 53/100 |
Germany are by far the favourites and have been excellent throughout the group stage. Portugal are priced at 31/10 to win the match. We can’t see Portugal getting one over Germany here.
Germany have scored in all of their Nations League matches, 23 in 8 games total, which is 2.87 goals per game. Portugal scored in 6 out of 8 games, scoring 18 in the process. Portugal have also only kept 1 clean sheet, while Germany kept 3.
Portugal has the fourth highest average corners across all 54 countries, with 7.1. Germany also cracked the top 16 with 5.3. We think that corners will play a big role in the match, and if both teams stick to their averages, you’ve got an easy win here.
Ronaldo will be dying to get on the score sheet, and so far, in 7 games played, he’s scored six and assisted once. He also averaged 1.7 shots on target per game in the Nations League.
The knockout phase is all being played in Germany this year, so it’s a home tournament for Die Mannschaft, making them even stronger favourites.
Semi Final 2: Spain vs France
Reigning Champions Spain take on France in the highlight of the semi-finals. We’ve picked out a few markets from bet365 which you can bet on separately or add to a bet builder.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To Qualify: Spain | 7/10 |
| To Score or Assist: Lamine Yamal | 6/5 |
| Over 0.5 Fouls: Marc Cucurella | 2/5 |
| Most Shots: Spain | 33/50 |
Spain has some of the best players in the world and is 2nd in the FIFA World Rankings. They’re favourites to qualify for the final, and France are priced at 21/20. The full-time result odds are 7/5 for Spain and 11/5 for France.
Lamine Yamal is in brilliant form and is the second favourite to win the Ballon d’Or. In the Nations League, Yamal has created the most chances for Spain, has the second most shots on target per game, 1.2, for Spain and is 3rd in goals and assists.
Marc Cucurella averaged 1.6 tackles per match and will be facing the current Ballon D’Or favourite, Ousmane Dembélé who plays on the right for France. We expect him to be forced to make at least one foul throughout the match.
It’ll be a close tie, but we’re predicting Spain to be the better team. Their attacking capabilities are huge, and if they play right, Spain could dominate Les Bleus. They also have the second highest average for shots in the tournament with 18.9.
UEFA Nations League Outright Odds
Now’s the best time to place your bets on an outright since there are still four teams to bet on. Here’s what bet365 is saying about the knockout stages.
Germany
Germany has never set the world alight in this tournament. They finished 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd in the previous season, but have an overall terrible record up until this season, winning 3, drawing 9, and losing 4 times with a total goal difference of -5.
This time was different. Germany topped the group, winning 4 games and drawing twice. The knockout stages are being played in Germany, and Germany can boast an excellent squad, too.
There’s a reason that they’re current favourites, and we’re backing them to win the whole thing.
Spain
Spain was placed in possibly the easiest group in the Nations League, and they styled it out with 5 wins, 1 draw, 13 goals scored, and just 4 conceded.
They had a really tough time in the Quarter finals, though. Holding Netherlands to a nil-nil and a 3-3 draw, only winning on penalties. Spain are the reigning champions, and we think they’ll finish second.
France
Player for player, France has the best squad, possibly in the world. They still haven’t made the most of it, and only just qualified for the knockout stage thanks to a better goal difference than Italy.
France also scraped by the quarter finals on penalties against Croatia, so we can’t see them progressing any further.
Portugal
The least likely to win, Portugal, had a decent run in the group stage, but lost a game in the quarters, before a dominant 5-2 performance in the second leg saw them through.
They are a weaker team than Germany, and the odds also reflect that. Although anyone can win two one-off games, so Portugal’s higher odds could be good value.