When you are trying to bet professionally, it is important to hedge your losses.No punter has a 100% record of winning bets. Because of this, it is important to have a bankroll management strategy. In other words, you should have enough money left over to recuperate losses and spread your risk over multiple bets. It would be very silly to bet your whole bankroll on just one bet. Therefore, you must decide how much to wager on each bet. There are many common strategies, the Kelly Criterion, Fibonacci Betting, Labouchere Betting and more. Each has simple formulas that tell you how much of your bankroll to bet.
In the case of the Fibonacci Betting System, your bet size depends on your win and loss streak. When you win, you decrease your bet size. When you lose, you increase your bet. In this article, we will learn how Fibonacci Betting works and if it is the right strategy for you.
Table of Contents
- Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Sports Betting in 2020
- Fibonacci Sequence Formula
- What Is The Fibonacci Betting System?
- The Fibonacci Betting System In Practice
- Pros and Cons of the Fibonacci System for Betting
- Comparing Fibonacci Betting to other Negative Progression Systems
- ThePuntersPage Final Say
Fibonacci Sequence Formula
The Fibonnacci Sequence formula has been known to humans for thousands of years. However, it is an intricate part of nature as well. You can find it in sea shells or flowers for example. It is also part of the Golden Ratio,and is very significant for classical art, as well as modern design.
In the Fibonacci sequence, every new number equals the sum of the previous two numbers, so if we start with the number one, you will see this:
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…
As you can see, starting from the beginning of the sequence, it is worked out like this:
- 1 + 1 = 2
- 1 + 2 = 3
- 2 + 3 = 5
- 5 + 3 = 8
- 8 + 5 = 13
Fibonacci in Nature
While this calculation is very simple, you will find the sequence all over nature. From spiral galaxies to sunflower seeds, to sea shells, most spiral shapes in nature are based on Fibonacci sequences.
The reason Nautilus shells have evolved this way is that the logarithmic spiral is the most efficient way to increase size proportionately.
The Golden Ratio
The Fibonacci sequence is also used to calculate the Golden Ratio. The Golden Ratio being a number in the sequence divided by the previous number. This number always equates to approximately 1.618, also known as Phi. In architecture, this sequence is used to calculate the size of windows, doors, arches and building shapes.
Who was Fibonnaci?
Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician from the Republic of Pisa. Due to his mathematical discoveries, he was considered “the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages”. Besides popularizing the use of Arabic numerals in Europe at a time when people still used Roman numerals, he also introduced what we now know as the Fibonacci sequence. Gamblers will forever remember him as the man who invented The Fibonacci Betting System.
What Is The Fibonacci Betting System?
The Fibonacci system is a negative progression betting system designed by Leonardo Pisano, also known as Fibonacci. It works so that with every losing bet you must increase your stake. The idea of this is that you are more likely to win larger amounts on winning bets in comparison to the money you lose.
The strategy can be used for sports betting or for casino games such as blackjack or roulette and follows a naturally occurring mathematical sequence. Following the sequence allows you to take a more calculated, emotionless approach to your betting; which in turn cuts out the mistakes of betting on a whim.
The Fibonacci Betting System In Practice
As we have explained, the Fibonacci betting system is a negative progression system, which means that you increase your wager each time you lose a bet.
To use the system effectively, it is best to seek out bets at odds of even money. Evens bets give you roughly a 50 percent chance of winning and will double your money if you win.
Now it’s time to choose your wager.
To keep things simple, let’s imagine your wager is £1. All you have to do is follow the sequence. Let’s have a look at the sequence again:
- 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…
With a stake of £1, starting at the beginning of the sequence, it would look like this:
- £1, £1, £2, £3, £5, £8, £13, £21, £34, £55, £89, £144…
Every time you lose a bet, move one number to the right.
Every time you win a bet, move two numbers to the left.
If you haven’t moved up at least two numbers in the sequence before winning, then simply start at the beginning again.
Now let's look at another example in more detail.
- Bet £1 (one unit) and lose
- Bet £1 (one unit) and lose
- Bet £2 (two units) and lose
- Bet £3 (three units) and lose
- Bet £5 (five units) and lose
- Bet £8 (eight units) and win
Following on from this, because you have won, you would now move two numbers to the left of the sequence, from eight units back to three units.
- Bet £3 (three units) and win
Again, because you have won, you would move two numbers back in the sequence, from three units back to one unit.
- Bet £1 (one unit)
As each number in the Fibonacci sequence represents betting units, it remains very simple, regardless of your stake.
Let’s say, for example, your wager is £5, the sequence would now look something like this:
£5, £5, £10, £15, £25, £40, £65, £105, £170, £275…
Pros and Cons of the Fibonacci System for Betting
The Fibonacci Betting system was designed to help you recuperate your losses. Of course, a lot depends on your handicapping skills, the size of your bankroll and the size of your units.
There are a number of advantages to the Fibonacci betting system. These include:
- Win your losses back: No matter how many times you lose a bet, providing you have the bankroll to place another stake, then you are eventually going to win all of your losses back.
- Easy to follow: The system is very easy to follow and requires very little thought process to play.
- Consistent profits: Due to the nature of the system, you will consistently build up many small profits the longer you play.
If you have a relatively large bankroll, with relatively small units, and you bet on odds of roughly 50% it could be a viable strategy.i
However, as with most systems, there are also disadvantages. There is one huge risk in particular which you will find in all negative progression betting systems, including as the Martingale system and the Progression d ’Alembert. That is that you could lose your entire bankroll on one loss streak.
If you are chasing your losses (and at some point things may become quite intense and scary when you have hit a losing streak) and you do not have the bankroll to back it up, you will have no way to win your money back.
For example, if your initial wager is £5 and you lose nine bets in a row, then you will have to stake £275 just to break even. If you were then to lose again, you would have to bet £445. If you do not have the money to continue to fend off the losing streak, then you will be hit with heavy losses.
The system is designed primarily for games of chance, where the outcome is around 50/50. That for games like Heads or Tails, or Red/Black betting in Roulette, where it remains a semi-viable strategy. It is much less relevant for sports betting in general.
Just like other Negative Progression Systems, it does not take into account the limitations of your bankroll. If you have reached the bottom of your bankroll, you cannot increase your bets any further.
Comparing Fibonacci Betting to other Negative Progression Systems
The Fibonacci Betting System is similar to other betting systems, such as the Martingale, Labouchere and D ’Alembertsystems.
The Martingale Betting system is based on the notion that a gambler with infinite wealth will eventually win when betting on games with the probability of approximately 50% (such as a coin toss or betting on Red/Black in roulette.
To use the system, you simply double your bet after a loss. The idea is that eventually, you will win a bet, and as long as you keep doubling after a loss, your losses will be compensated by the size of your bets.
In theory, this system would let a gambler at least break even, provided he has an infinite bankroll. Of course, this does not take the house edge on most games into account.
The Labouchere Betting System is also called the Split Martingale, the Cancellation System and American Progression. It is also a form of negative progression. It involves a sequence of three numbers.
Your bets will be the sum of the outer numbers of the sequence. For example:
- 1 – 2 – 3
In this case, you will bet 4 units, 1 + 3 = 4
If you lose
If you lose, you add a number to the sequence. For example:
- 1 – 2 – 3 – 4
In this case, your bet will be 1 + 4 = 5
If you lose again
If you lose, you add a number to the sequence. For example:
- 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5
In this case, your bet will be 1 + 4 = 6
If you win
If you win, you remove the outer numbers
- 1 – 2 – 3 – 4–5
In this case, your bet will be 2 + 4 = 6
Just like the Martingale system, this system works in theory. As long as you have an infinite bankroll and the house edge is zero, you should at least break even.
D ‘Alembert System
The D ‘Alembert Betting System is similar to the previous two. Here you simply start with betting one unit and raise your stake by one unit if you lose and decrease your stake by one unit if you win. In theory, this would ensure that you regain your losses, as long as you have an infinite bankroll and the house edge is zero.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
The Fibonacci Betting System was designed for roulette. By increasing your bets when you lose, you should be able to win your money back. However, it does not take house edge into account, or the limitations of your bankroll.
When applied to sports betting, it is not as relevant. Where Fibonacci Betting should help you regain your losses by increasing bets, the formula assumes bets that double your money. Not all sports bets do that, as odds are usually not 50/50.
Though it can be a viable strategy in helping you choose how much to bet, how much you win or lose ultimately depends on you finding value in bets and choosing the right bets. There are betting methods that are much more sophisticated, such as the Kelly Criterion. If you want to know more about how much to bet on each wager, read our article on Bankroll Management.