The Kelly Criterion is a method for determining the amount that punters should stake. The formula suggests placing a wager only if the true odds vary from the bookie's odds .
INSTRUCTIONS ON HOW TO USE THE KELLY CRITERION CALCULATOR
CURRENT BALANCE: Insert your current betting balance
BOOKMAKER ODDS: The odds you want to back
YOUR ESTIMATE (%): Your estimated probability of the selection winning
FRACTIONAL KELLY BETTING (FKB): Choose between 0.1 – 1.0. The standard kelly betting is 1.0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full recommended amount, you can insert a fraction representing a percentage (e.g. 0.80 –> 80%)
RECOMMENDED STAKE (%): Will give you the recommended stake in %
RECOMMENDED STAKE (%) – FKB ADJUSTED: Will give you the recommended stake in % after adjusting to the ‘Fractional Kelly Betting' value you have assigned to it
RECOMMENDED STAKE – FKB ADJUSTED: Will give you the recommended stake after adjusting to the ‘Fractional Kelly Betting' value you have assigned to it
RETURN ON WAGERED FUNDS (%): The return on your wagered stake in %
EXPECTED VALUE FOR BET: The expected value you will receive
OVERALL POTENTIAL PROFIT: The overall net profit if bet wins
Should you wish to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator for a new calculation, simply tap the RESET button in green.
Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel
We are giving you two options on how to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. Take your pick!
Download Kelly Criterion Calculator
Download our free and easy-to-use Kelly Criterion Calculator by downloading this excel file! All you need to do is choose which column you want to use (depending whether you want to input your odds in fractions, decimal or american format) and follow the instructions provided!
How to create your own Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel
Creating your own Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel is very easy. Just follow these simple steps.
1. Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create these headers:
- Bankroll (How much is your total Bankroll?)
- Kelly Staking Fraction (Which percentage of a Full Kelly do you want?)
- Outcome 1 (Name the outcome)
- Outcome 2 (Name the outcome)
- Odds of 1 (The odds offered by bookies)
- Odds of 2 (The odds offered by bookies)
- Probability of 1 (How likely do you estimate Outcome 1?)
- Probability of 2 (How likely do you estimate Outcome 2?)
- Stake on 1 (How much should you bet on Outcome 1?)
- Stake on 2 (How much should you bet on Outcome 2?)
2. Enter your bankroll and staking fraction (How much of a full Kelly do you want to bet?)
3. Enter the two possible outcomes for the market in 1 outcome and 2. Also, place the market odds in Odds of 1 and Odds of 2. For this example, we will use the odds from our earlier hypothetical matchup between Real Madrid and Manchester United for the Champions League final. (In this case, there is no draw)
4. Fill in your own estimated probabilities for each outcome
5. Add formulas to Stake on 1 and Stake on 2
- Paste this formula in H2
=((((E2*G2)-1)/(E2-1))*A2)*B2
- Paste this formula in I2
=((((F2*H2)-1)/(F2-1))*A2)*B2
As you can see, our 50% Half Kelly is exactly half of our earlier calculation for the Full Kelly.
6. Let’s see how it works for our Horse Racing example.
As you can see, you only need to put odds in for one side of the outcome. Drag the cross cursor down in I2 to get the same formula for I3.
If you want more great calculators, check out our bet calculators page.
Adam is avid sports writer (5 years and counting) who has been betting for as long as he's been legally able to. As an Arsenal fan, he knows a thing or two about the importance of patience (and heartbreak).
Wayne received a bachelor’s in math from M.I.T. and a Ph.D. in management science from Yale. He taught management science and statistics at Indiana’s nationally ranked Kelly School of Business. 201-2017. He has won over 40 teaching awards, including the award as the best teacher in the M.B.A. program six times. Professor Winston has written […]
