Kelly Criterion Calculator

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Viewed and reviewed by: Wayne L. Winston

The Kelly Criterion is a method for determining the amount that punters should stake. The formula suggests placing a wager only if the true odds vary from the bookie's odds .

KELLY CRITERION CALCULATOR
Odds format:
Decimal
Fractional
American
Current betting balance
Bookmaker odds
Your estimate (%)
Fractional Kelly Betting (FKB)
Bookmaker Estimate (%)
00.00%
Recommended Stake (%)
Recommended Stake - FKB adjusted (%)
00.00%
Recommended Stake - FKB adjusted
00.00
Return on wagered funds
00.00%
Expected value for bet
00.00
Overall potential profit
00.00
RESET

INSTRUCTIONS ON HOW TO USE THE KELLY CRITERION CALCULATOR

CURRENT BALANCE: Insert your current betting balance
BOOKMAKER ODDS: The odds you want to back
YOUR ESTIMATE (%): Your estimated probability of the selection winning
FRACTIONAL KELLY BETTING (FKB): Choose between 0.1 – 1.0. The standard kelly betting is 1.0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full recommended amount, you can insert a fraction representing a percentage (e.g. 0.80 –> 80%)
RECOMMENDED STAKE (%): Will give you the recommended stake in %
RECOMMENDED STAKE (%) – FKB ADJUSTED: Will give you the recommended stake in % after adjusting to the ‘Fractional Kelly Betting' value you have assigned to it
RECOMMENDED STAKE – FKB ADJUSTED: Will give you the recommended stake after adjusting to the ‘Fractional Kelly Betting' value you have assigned to it
RETURN ON WAGERED FUNDS (%): The return on your wagered stake in %
EXPECTED VALUE FOR BET: The expected value you will receive
OVERALL POTENTIAL PROFIT: The overall net profit if bet wins

 

Should you wish to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator for a new calculation, simply tap the RESET button in green.

 

Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel

We are giving you two options on how to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. Take your pick!

Download Kelly Criterion Calculator

Download our free and easy-to-use Kelly Criterion Calculator by downloading this excel file! All you need to do is choose which column you want to use (depending whether you want to input your odds in fractions, decimal or american format) and follow the instructions provided!

 

How to create your own Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel

Creating your own Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel is very easy. Just follow these simple steps.

1. Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create these headers:

  • Bankroll (How much is your total Bankroll?)
  • Kelly Staking Fraction (Which percentage of a Full Kelly do you want?)
  • Outcome 1 (Name the outcome)
  • Outcome 2 (Name the outcome)
  • Odds of 1 (The odds offered by bookies)
  • Odds of 2 (The odds offered by bookies)
  • Probability of 1 (How likely do you estimate Outcome 1?)
  • Probability of 2 (How likely do you estimate Outcome 2?)
  • Stake on 1 (How much should you bet on Outcome 1?)
  • Stake on 2 (How much should you bet on Outcome 2?)

Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel Step 1

 

2. Enter your bankroll and staking fraction (How much of a full Kelly do you want to bet?)
Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel Step 2

 

3. Enter the two possible outcomes for the market in 1 outcome and 2. Also, place the market odds in Odds of 1 and Odds of 2. For this example, we will use the odds from our earlier hypothetical matchup between Real Madrid and Manchester United for the Champions League final. (In this case, there is no draw)
Kelly Criterion Calculator in Excel Step 3

 

4. Fill in your own estimated probabilities for each outcome
Calculator in Excel Step 4

 

5. Add formulas to Stake on 1 and Stake on 2

  • Paste this formula in H2

=((((E2*G2)-1)/(E2-1))*A2)*B2

  • Paste this formula in I2

=((((F2*H2)-1)/(F2-1))*A2)*B2
Calculator in Excel Step 5
As you can see, our 50% Half Kelly is exactly half of our earlier calculation for the Full Kelly.

 

6. Let’s see how it works for our Horse Racing example.
Calculator in Excel Step 6
As you can see, you only need to put odds in for one side of the outcome. Drag the cross cursor down in I2 to get the same formula for I3.

 

If you want more great calculators, check out our bet calculators page.